UFC Fight Night Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds July 15

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night predictions and picks for July 15 with Holly Holm v Mayra Bueno Silva headlining the event. The main card starts up at 10:00pm ET from UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV.

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Holly Holm v Mayra Bueno Silva Odds: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, July 15	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Holly Holm -150 v Mayra Bueno Silva +125
Rounds:	4.5 Rounds (Over -195 / Under +160)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 10:00pm ET / 7:00pm PT
Arena:	UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV
TV:	ESPN

UFC Fight Night Expert Predictions

Ailin Perez -165 v Ashlee Evans-Smith

So many questions around Ashlee as she’s only fought eight times in the UFC since 2014, and she’s 1-4 in her last five.

She had injuries before, during, and after the Norma Dumont fight in 2020 which resulted in back surgery, and then she failed a drug test so this will be her first fight back from that.

I like Ailin Perez as a fighter, and she lost to Stephanie Egger in her debut as Egger picks and chooses which fights she wants to perform well in, and this happened to be a fight she decided to fight like a professional fighter and she used her takedown and ground game to eventually finish Perez.

Perez had to move up in weight to make that fight so while she’ll be shorter than Smith, she’ll be at her normal weight class. Perez is active and is constantly moving, and I like her in this one to get back on the winning track.

Smith has had cardio issues in the past and the three year layoff doesn’t help, I see Perez pushing the pace and going for takedowns that eventually tire out Smith which will lead to Perez controlling the ground game for the majority of the fight, I’ll take Perez in this one.

Alex Munoz -140 v Carl Deaton +120

Alex Munoz is coming off a long layoff due to a torn ACL, and as much as that concerns me, he took extra time off to get properly recovered. His skillset is much better than Deaton, especially takedowns.

Deaton got destroyed by Joe Solecki with takedowns and eventually the finish on the ground, and Munoz can push opponents forward and get takedowns if needed.

Munoz talked about how much better he feels now with his studying the sport, and his work in the gym has been better than ever.

Deaton is 2-4 in his last six fights with both wins being against bad opponents, he has a weak gas tank, not much upside on the feet or on the ground, and if Munoz performs as good as he says he feels, he should take this fight.

The concern is the knee injury, but I don’t think this opponent (Deaton) will take advantage. I like the price, I think it’s worth a wager.

Azat Maksum -435 v Tyson Nam +350

Maksum makes his UFC debut with a 16-0 record, but I’m not sure about this price. He’s a takedown and submission specialist, but there are lots of question about the quality of opponents he’s faced.

So as bettors we’re left to decide whether his skills will be just as effective in the UFC as it has been in the Octagon and BRAVE leagues.

Tyson Nam is 39 years old, but if you give him an opening, he has knockout power, and I believe Maksum will give Nam more than one opportunity as he’s ok with striking, but his cardio has a lot to be desired.

Two fights ago, he won against Alan Gabriel, and that fight was close with Gabriel getting takedowns, and at times winning the striking battle. Gabriel is 0-4 in his last four fights and 2-7 in his last nine.

There’s no chance I’m taking Maksum at this price as Nam is a live dog for sure, but I can’t bring myself to bet on Nam as his win against Ode Osbourne was a bit fluky, and he followed that up to a loss to Bruno Silva. This is a stay away.

Evan Elder -285 v Genaro Valdez +240

Steep odds here for Elder, but I think he takes it over Valdez in a pretty good fight. Valdez has lost both his UFC fights to Matt Frevola and Natan Levy, and his fight against Levy was a solid fight, but he just doesn’t excel at anything.

He’s a tough guy and can land shots, but he’s a bit slow, and the strikes are telegraphed so the opponent can see them coming and they’re ready for counters.

Elder is faster and has much better movement on the feet, and his last fight was an incredible fight against Sadykhov that got called in the third due to a cut from a knee. It was a tough loss for Elder as he was right in the fight and the cut wasn’t slowing him down at all.

This is a great bounce back fight for him as he certainly has to be mad about the last fight and the movement and speed advantage he has on the feet will wear down Valdez. Not sure if it’s a parlay piece to bet on Elder, but I like this fight to start round 2.

Melquizael Costa -200 v Austin Lingo +170

I like Costa, but for betting purposes I think this is a stay away for picking a winner. Costa made his UFC debut in a tough situation as they put him up against Thiago Moises as a last second replacement.

He did decent in the first part of the first round, but Moises implemented takedowns and the ground game en route to a round two finish. I just feel like we didn’t get to see a lot of what Costa has to offer on offense in the UFC.

Lingo is a really tough guy, and can definitely do damage on the feet, but he leaves his head open to jabs and counters and in his last fight against Nate Landwehr he definitely slowed down on the feet in round two as Nate started working him over good en route to Lingo getting finished.

I think this fight takes place on the feet with Costa having a bit of an edge with speed and movement and creativity, but an early power advantage to Lingo. I don’t like the odds on Costa to win, but I do like this fight to last a while so I will be using this fight to start round two as a parlay piece.

Viktoriia Dudakova -280 v Estela Nunes +235

This is an absolute stay away from both sides. Dudakova is coming off a decision win on Contender Series, but she had an injury coming into the fight so not getting a finish wasn’t a big surprise.

She’s a grappler so expect her to shoot early and often as her stand up game is not very good, and that’s the advantage that Nunes will have. If Nunes can stuff takedowns and make it a striking battle, Nunes can win, but if it gets on the ground it’s Dudakova’s fight all day.

Nunes desperately needs a win as a loss would mean 0-4 in the UFC and would pretty much guarantee her getting cut.

We didn’t see Dudakova at full strength in Contender Series so I don’t feel comfortable wagering on her at this price, and I’m not going to bet on Nunes who hasn’t won yet in UFC. This fight is a complete stay away for betting purposes.

Melsik Baghdasaryan -210 v Tucker Lutz +180

I’ve never been a fan of Tucker Lutz, and I definitely don’t like him in this matchup. Lutz doesn’t offer much upside on offense as his striking isn’t that great and Melsik is much more crisp and clean on the feet.

Mesik’s hand speed is much better, and he uses his kicks pretty effectively. Melsik lost his last fight to Josh Culibao, which is nothing to be ashamed of as the fight was a good scrap on the feet where Melsik was holding his own on the feet.

In the second round, Culibao hit a punch as Melsik was throwing a kick, and they went down and Culibao grabbed the neck and got the submission. It was a great move by Culibao, but it wasn’t like Melsik got dominated in the fight.

Culibao’s only loss is to Jalin Turner so it wasn’t a bad loss. Lutz has lost his last two fights in the UFC to Daniel Pineda and Pat Sabatini, and I feel confident this will be loss number three in a row. Melsik has the advantage on the feet, and on the mat as well, I see Melsik rolling in this fight.

Nazim Sadykhov -155 v Terrance McKinney +135

This could be a really entertaining fight, and while I slightly lean Sadykhov, I can’t pull the trigger on a wager in this one. McKinney has yet to see round three in the UFC, and his last fight where he got knocked out by Ismael Bonfim was his longest fight in his career, and that didn’t even make it to the halfway point.

My concern with McKinney is that he’s gotten finished in two out of his last three fights by Bonfim and Drew Dober, and the shot he took from Bonfim was vicious so I’m worried about the chin being soft.

I like Sadykhov’s style as he can finish early, but he has the cardio to still be very effective late in fights as evident by his win against Evan Elder in the third last time out.

Sadykhov has a multitude of offensive attacks on the feet, and I believe he can use those to chip away at McKinney, and if the fight doesn’t get finished early, Sadykhov will pull away the longer the fight goes on.

McKinney is always live for a surprise finish, but Sadykhov has stayed away from getting finished so far (except for his first pro fight) and I think he avoids it here. Strong lean to Sadykhov.

Francisco Prado -125 v Ottman Azaitar +105

Don’t blink in an Ottman Azaitar fight. He’s 11-1 and never been to decision. He swings hard and with bad intentions, but it leaves him wide open to counter shots as Matt Frevola showed last fight when he slept Azaitar in the first round.

Prado made his UFC debut against Jamie Mullarkey, and he really didn’t show a lot in that fight. Mullarkey took him down and dominated the first round, and then Prado looked like he got a bit tired as the fight went on as Mullarkey picked him apart on the feet.

The odds suggest the books are a bit confused with this fight, and I would have to agree. Azaitar fights are violent, and while Prado has a lot of finishes in his career, but they’re in the Samurai Fight House and other random leagues.

It wouldn’t surprise me if this turns into a brawl on the feet, but if you’re looking to bet this fight just take it to not go the distance as that play is an auto play in Azaitar fights.

Norma Dumont -140 v Chelsea Chandler +120

Chandler is a brawler who sill stand and bang, and isn’t afraid to go to the ground to mix it up as well. She is coming a nice win against Stoliarenko where she just used brute force and power to overwhelm and get the finish.

The problem is that her style isn’t very clean, and although she got the finish in round one, she was absolutely slowing down. I think getting Dumont at this price is a steal. Dumont is 5-2 in the UFC with her losses being her debut in 2020, and a split decision loss to Macy Chiasson.

In her last two wins, she dominated decorated boxer Danyelle Wolf, and then took out Karol Rosa in April by decision in a really competitive fight.

I just think Dumont is way more polished and will be able to weather the storm of Chandler early on, and use the fundamentals of proper footwork, kicks and punches to wear down Chandler.

This is a big step up in competition for Chelsea where her lack of defense and sloppy stances will be exposed. Dumont should make this a crisp clean fight and at only -140 I love this play.

Walt Harris -190 v Josh Parisian +160

I had no idea Walt Harris was still fighting as he hasn’t fought in two years, and he has gotten finished in three straight fights.

He has a horrific gas tank after a just a few minutes into the fight, and he’s now 40 years old so I don’t see how his cardio would be better. Parisian isn’t a great fighter, but he’s 3-3 in Contender Series and UFC fights, and has the cardio to go three rounds.

This fight is all about can Walt Harris finish the fight early. If he doesn’t finish the fight, Josh will win, and probably by finish as Harris just falls off a cliff after his first wind is gone. There are several ways to bet this fight: Take Parisian at this price, wait to live bet the fight and if Walt doesn’t finish early then take Parisian or take the fight to not go the distance.

Harris has gone to decision once, and that was against Mr. Decision himself, Andrei Arlovski and that fight got ruled a no contest.

That’s probably the safest option and a parlay on this fight and the Azaitar fight to not go the distance could be great.

Jun Yung Park -150 v Albert Duraev +130

This is a close fight and it’s a stay away for betting purposes for me. Park is 6-2 in the UFC and has won fights by decision, and by submissions, and while he’s not the most exciting fighter stylistically, he just knows how to take advantage of the weakness of his opponents.

He has a low ceiling in the UFC, but if his opponent shows a weakness in the takedown and ground games, he will pounce and get the submission. I just don’t think Duraev has those holes in his game for Park to take advantage of.

Duraev has takedown and ground game, and his cardio is good. He got then last fight against Chidi Njokuani and it was winning round three that got him the win.

He beat Roman Kopylov by decision as well and lost to Joaquin Buckley due to doctor stoppage. I think these two are pretty equal, I give Duraev the advantage on the feet and Park the advantage on the ground. This will be a no play for me.

UFC Fight Night Main Event Prediction: Holy Holm -170 v Mayra Bueno Silva +145

Another tough fight that the only way I would play it is to start round two. Holm is making one last run at a title shot, and if she wins she’ll have a pretty good case to make.

Holm does a great job at point fighting with strikes, and then solidifying rounds with clinch work or a takedown.

Silva can a tough matchup as she has submission wins with an arm bar and knee bar recently so Holm might be reluctant to take it to the ground, and if Silva is focused she has good strikes that can do damage, but can she keep up with Holm’s speed and footwork and with Holly being 41 how much advantage is she going to have with the movement?

Silva has also shown some real immaturity in fights by mocking opponents, and overall this fight just has too many questions for me to pick a winner. It’s a Holly Holm fight so I will still play it to start round two in a parlay, but that’s about it.


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