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UFC 290 Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds July 8

Alexander Volkanovski battles in UFC fight

UFC 290 Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC 290 predictions and picks for July 8 with Alexander Volkanovski and Yair Rodriguez headlining the event. The main card starts up at 10:00pm ET from T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV

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Alexander Volkanovski vs Yair Rodriguez Odds: UFC 290 Main Event

Saturday, July 1 UFC 290 Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline: Alexander Volkanovski -390 vs Yair Rodriguez +295
Rounds: 4.5 Rounds (Over -125 / Under -105)
Fight Time: Main Card Starts at 10:00pm ET / 7:00pm PT
Arena: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV

UFC 290 Betting Analysis

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UFC 290 Expert Predictions

Edgar Chairez v Tatsuro Taira

Good to see Taira feet rebooked quickly after his last fight got cancelled, and he’s got a great stylistic matchup here.

Chairez is a striker, and was involved in one of the more strange and dangerous ends to a fight when Chairez put a triangle on his opponent and the ref didn’t realize that the opponent was unconscious for quite some time resulting in serious injury.

Chairez’s striking defense isn’t very good, and that will be the start of many problems for him as the strikes will inevitably lead to Taira going for, and most likely getting the takedown.

Once it’s on the ground, it’s Taira’s world, and he should work towards a finish. Taira’s striking has improved every fight so while he’s not the best on the feet, he should be plenty good enough to implement his game plan en route to victory.

Cameron Saaiman v Terrence Mitchell

Saaiman is 8-0 and soon he won’t be known as a promising prospect, he’ll just be known as a successful UFC fighter as he is only 22 years old, but has skills in all parts of his game.

He has great cardio solid striking and a good ground game, he really just need more experience and to grow into his man body.

He’ll fight Terrence Mitchell who is coming from the Alaskan Combat Experience which is a fairly low level league.

Mitchell has a lot of finishes, but he took a four year break from 2018-2022, and he’s finished his last two fights, but it’s such low level competition it’s really hard to see how good he is.

He gets his finishes on the ground, and I think his biggest advantage is just that he’s got a bigger body, and he’s 33 so I expect him to have the strength advantage, and we’ve seen crazy things happen this year with no-name guys coming from smaller leagues pulling off the upsets. I’ll be staying away from this one.

Jimmy Cute v Alonzo Menifield

These two fought to a draw last time out, and I thought it was pretty clear that Menifield was winning the standup game while Crute was winning the wrestling game.

Minefield got a point taken away for a fence grab which caused the draw, and I think this fight will look the same. Crute will look to shoot and wrestle and get the fight on the ground, Menifield will want it to stay on the feet and be a striking battle.

Both guys are very tough and good enough cardio to go the distance, I think taking overs in this fight is the only way to go as they are so evenly matched I don’t see either of them finishing the other.

Vitor Petrino v Marcin Prachnio

Petrino îs undefeated, and is a muscular strong guy and I always worry about guys carrying that much muscle on their frame gassing out, but Petrino has been able to handle it over his short career.

He beat Turalj in his last fight, and even though I’m way down on Turkalj, Petrino was able to land really good strikes, and look decent in the third round managing his cardio.

Prachnio should have the cardio advantage, but Prachnio lost his fight to Philipe Lins where Lins won the fight with takedowns, and at times was winning the striking battle.

Both guys will stand and bang, and I lean Petrino to get the win because I believe he’ll score enough takedowns and control to win rounds, but the odds are way to juicy. I won’t be betting this fight.

Kamuela Kirk v Esteban Robotics

I really don’t have an opinion on this fight except for it to go over as I didn’t really learn much from Ribovic’s UFC debut against Loik Radzhabov. Loik was able to get takedowns, but that’s not Kirk’s game, and Kirk got finished on the ground against Damon Jackson.

Both guys have quick finishes in their careers against lower competition, but I believe this fight will be very close on the feet.

I like both of their standup games, but I think it will cancel each other out, and I don’t see either of them winning on the ground outside of Kirk who has decent submission game so I’ll stay away from picking a winner her and just pick this fight to go over 2.5.

Yazmin Jauregi v Denise Gomes

If this card wasn’t as stacked, this could be fight of the night and it still has an outside shot. Both women are incredible fighters as they both push forward, are super aggressive and throw strikes with intentions to finish.

Jauregi is the rightful favorite here, and she should end up landing the more devastating blows, but Gomes will not be shy to fire back, I just don’t think she is as polished in the striking game as Jauregi. Jauregi could get the finish, but to be safe I would just take Jauregi ML in a parlay.

Shannon Ross v Jesus Aguilar

This is a low level fight that I want nothing to do with. Aguilar is an undersized fighter with a good gas tank, but he pushes forward and looks for the takedowns, but against UFC caliber competition he’s in over his head I believe as Taira made quick work of him last fight.

Ross isn’t good and got finished in Contender Series, and then in the UFC when they gave him a fight because the event was in Australia, and he’s Australian. Neither of these guys are impressive, but I’m lower on Ross so I’ll take Aguilar to get takedowns and come out with the win, but save your money and look elsewhere to wager.

Robbie Lawler v Niko Price

Price all day in this one as this could be our last chance to bet against Robbie Lawler. Lawler is way past his prime and has absorbed too much damage to compete in the UFC anymore.

He has two wins in the last five years, one against the declining Donald Corrine, and the other against Nick Diaz who literally just quit in the middle of the fight.

Lawler got finished by Bryan Barberena and Niko Price should do the same here. Price is 1-3 in his last four, but his three losses are to really good fighters (Vicente Luque, Michel Pereira, Phil Rowe). If Lawler gets starched again on the feet, he probably retires, I’ll be on Niko Price to win, probably by KO.

Jalin Turner v Dan Hooker

This fight feels like it may be a bit of the changing of the guard as Turner has been running through the competition, and even though he lost to Gamrot, it was a split decision against an elite opponent and probably his most impressive performance in the UFC even though it was a loss.

He proved he has the cardio to last, he showed his defense when Gamrot was able to get takedowns that he can avoid submissions and he can get back up, and he shows levels of maturity in that he didn’t try and go all in on a quick finish and tire himself out.

Dan Hooker had been on a 1-4 streak before beating Claudio Puelles when he exposed Puelle’s complete lack of striking game, but he gets beat when he faces elite talent which I believe Turner is.

Michael Chandler, Makhachev and Arnold Allen all finished him, and I don’t know if Turner will be able to get the finish, but I wouldn’t be surprised. Even if goes to decision, I expect Turner to dominate the scorecards.

Robert Whittaker v Driscus Du Plessis

Du Plessis is undefeated in the UFC, but it’s a bit of smoke in mirrors. He’s finished his last two fights, but one was against Darren Till who tore is ACL in that fight, and the next was Derek Brunson who could get finished by a gust of wind these days.

This will be Du Plessis’s biggest test and his biggest weakness is his cardio and I think that’s where Whittaker wins this fight.

Du Plessis looks great in round 1, but then fades quick and with Whittakers striking, I don’t think Driscus can count on winning round 1.

Whittaker has two losses, both to Israel Adesanya so no shame in that obviously. I think Whittaker handles Du Plessis pretty easily, but Whittaker doesn’t finish his opponents so I don’t think this ends in a KO, but I think this is Du Plessis’s first loss in the UFC.

Brandon Moreno v Alexandre Pantoja

If you’re betting on Pantoja here, you’re betting on more improvement from him in this fight. He lost in 2019 and 2020 to Deiveson Figueiredo and Askar Askarov, but since then has beaten Kape, Royval and Alex Perez, and his finishes to Royal and Perez early in round 1 were shockingly impressive, but can he do that against Moreno and if he doesn’t get the early finish can he win over three rounds?

These two fought in 2018, but I don’t take a ton away from that fight five years ago. I have to give the edge in big fight experience and rangy striking to Moreno, but I give Pantoja the aggression advantage.

Moreno can use those effective leg and body kicks to slow down Pantoja, and the longer the fight goes on the more I like Moreno.

I don’t have a strong opinion either way on this fight, but if you’re a live bettor I would hope to get a quick start from Pantoja and if Moreno survives, take Moreno live towards the end of round 1.

Bo Nickel v Tresean Gore

Pretty easy prediction in this one as this will be another showcase fight for Bo Nickel. Gore isn’t a great UFC fighters, and Nickal should get Gore on the ground pretty quick and get the back of Gore and work ground and pound or a submission.

Taking Gore would be the ultimate contrarian play, but if you’re betting on Gore you’re betting on something bizarre to happen.

UFC 290 Main Event Prediction

I still don’t believe in the hype of Rodriguez yet, but if he wins here…absolutelyI’ll have to. He beat Emmett with a nice triangle from the bottom, but Emmett appears to be past his prime. Before that fight, he got the win when Brian Ortega suffered a shoulder injury, and before that he lost to Max Holloway so as talented as he is, this is going to be an incredibly hard fight for him.

Volkanovski put on, maybe his most impressive fight ever as a pro as he went up a weight division and went to decision against Makhachev, and despite the loss, he impressed everyone.

He’s such a smart fighter, has a great camp, and just knows how to exploit the weakness of the other fighter. He can strike, he can use takedowns if needed, and I think he gets the better of Rodriguez here.

Yair is known for his unique strikes and offensive attacks, but I don’t think it works on Volk. I think Volk pushes the pace and closes the distance, and doesn’t let Yair stand in space to throw his crazy strikes.

Volk can take Rodriguez into deep waters, and I think this is too big of step up for Yair. I’ll take Volkanovski to win, and I think it goes the distance.

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