UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs Gaziev Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds March 2

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night predictions and picks for February 24th with Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Shamil Gaziev headlining the event in a heavyweight fight. The main card starts up at 4:00pm ET from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV.

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Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Shamil Gaziev: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, March 2	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Jairzinho Rozenstruik +125 vs Shamil Gaziev -150
Rounds:	1.5 Rounds (Over +145 / Under -170)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 4:00pm ET / 1:00pm PT
Arena:	UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV
TV:	ESPN+

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UFC Fight Night Predictions

This card has a lot of favorites I really like, and as much as I’ve tried to research the underdogs, and find reasons to take them I think this card ends up being really chaulky with most of the favorites winning.

I think there are some great spots for favorites to win inside the distance, and those are noted in the writeups. Good luck!!!

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Abdul Kareem Al-Selwady -155 v Loik Radzhabov +130

Radzhabov has looked completely different in his last two fights in the UFC. In his first UFC fight he took Ribovics down time and time again, and while he had some decent moments on the feet, Ribovics was able to land strikes.

In his next fight, he couldn’t get Mateusz Rebecki down and Rebecki demolished him on the feet with leg kicks, and punches and eventually he got the KO win.

So we know Radzhabov has bad strike defense and good takedown offense. I remember Al-Selwady well as I picked him to pull the upset on Contender Series against highly touted prospect George Hardwick, and he fought well with the striking and pressure en route to a solid decision win.

The question is, will his striking be good enough to exploit the bad defense of Radzhabov? I think it will be.

His cardio looked good, and he just has to stuff a couple of takedowns and he should be able to soften up Radzhabov on the feet. It should be a close fight, but I don’t like what I’ve seen from Radzhabov, I like Selwady by decision.

Vinicius Oliviera -170 v Yanis Ghemmouri +142

Ghemmouri doesn’t strike me as a guy with a long career in the UFC as he lost his only UFC fight to Gomis by taking a brutal body kick in round three that put him down, but he had lost the first two rounds as well.

He’s a rangy kickboxer, but he doesn’t have much power, and his defense isn’t great. Oliviera is a powerful striker with solid leg kicks and strikes, and he can be a bit wild, but when he lands clean it can put your lights out as we saw him brutally KO his opponent on Contender Series.

Unfortunately, he leaves himself wide open for counters. I agree with him being the favorite here as Ghemmouri doesn’t appear to have the power to scare Oliviera, and while I think Ghemmouri can touch him, I think eventually Oliviera lands a power shot to get the KO or wobble Ghemmouri to win the round.

Ghemmouri getting knocked out by Gomis isn’t a great look as Gomis isn’t a huge power striker so this fight spells trouble for Ghemmouri in my opinion.

Javid Basharat -700 v Aiemann Zahabi +360

Zahabi is coming off the quick KO win against Aoriqileng last June, and it was very well set up, but it was one minute into the fight so we didn’t get to see his skills over a long period of time.

He only fights once a year, and in 2022 beat Ricky Turcios in a pretty boring fight that took place completely on the feet, and we really haven’t seen his ground game and I’m pretty sure Basharat will make sure to test that out.

Basharat is on a tear as he’s 14-0 as a professional, and 3-0 in the UFC with all wins coming by decision. He can piece up opponents on the feet, and he can take guys down and control them on the ground, and I suspect he’ll do the same here.

I have no clue what to expect from Zahabi’s ground game and takedown defense, but Zahabi is nothing special on the feet so I see Basharat figuring him out pretty quickly and dominating the fight like he has in his previous UFC fights.

Using Basharat as a parlay piece is a great spot, or wait til props come out and play him by decision.

Ludoveit Klein -800 v AJ Cunningham +550

Klein gets a short notice replacement in AJ Cunningham, and normally I get a bit nervous betting against these short notice guys who have nothing to lose, but Klein should roll Cunningham.

Cunningham is coming off Contender Series where he got knocked out by Steven Nguyen, and I don’t think Nguyen is that good.

Klein demolished Bahamondes in his last fight, and looked fantastic, and if he’s 75% of the fighter he was in that fight he should run through Cunningham. Wait til props come out and take Klein inside the distance.

Steve Erceg -305 v Matt Schnell +245

It’s a pretty steep line on Erceg who is 2-0 in the UFC, but he has looked great against David Dvorak and Alessandro Costa.

His striking has been crisp, and he has good takedown and ground game, and cardio is no issue, but this is an interesting matchup against Schnell. Schnell is 1-2 in his last three, but could easily be 0-3 as he got the win in the insane Sumudaerji fight, but his losses are to Matheus Nicolau and Brandon Royval so on paper this looks like a big step down in competition.

However, I can also make the case that Schnell is on a rapid decline as his last three losses have been by finish, and he absorbed a ton of damage against Sumaderji.

Watching Schnell fight Nicolau, he just looked tentative, and he got knocked down on a big shot in the first round before getting finished in the second so I don’t trust his chin. I like Erceg to win, but I’m not laying -305. No bets on this fight as the price has taken me out of the market.

Chris Leroy Duncan -305 v Claudio Ribeiro +245

I’m not high on Ribeiro at all as he’s powerful, but he’s also flat-footed with bad cardio. He beat Joseph Holmes in the UFC, but Holmes is awful and Ribeiro has been finished in his other two fights so any decent UFC fighter he’s faced, he’s lost convincingly to.

Duncan suffered his first loss of his career against Petrosyan, but responded well by getting the finish over Denis Tiululin where he clinched Tiululin against the fence the entire first round, and then knocked him out with his solid striking.

He has unorthodox striking, and comes from strange angles, and it can look odd at times, but it seems to work for him, and I think it will work here.

Based on what I’ve seen from Ribeiro’s cardio, if he doesn’t finish Duncan in the first round, he’s in big trouble and probably gets finished again. Duncan inside the distance is the play.

Eryk Anders -310 v Jamie Pickett +250

Potentially, a loser leaves UFC match, but if Pickett loses he’s definitely done as he’s lost four straight fights. Anders hasn’t been much better as his last two recent wins are against guys who aren’t in the UFC anymore.

Anders is a striker who has had real cardio problems in the past, but I’m not sure Pickett is the guy to test the cardio. Anders performed well in his last fight against Barriault as he managed his cardio well, but just didn’t have the volume or power to win the fight.

He doesn’t have takedown offense and his striking game just isn’t good enough against good UFC competition.

Pickett has the same cardio issues as Anders, and the same low-volume issues so I think this fight is close, and we saw in Pickett’s last lost to Fremd that he survived Fremd’s ground game, and he actually got a couple of takedowns himself, and I wonder if he might try for takedowns against Anders.

If he does try takedowns, it will get both guys tired for sure so I think this fight is way closer than the lines. It’s a dog or pass fight, it’s Pickett or nothing, but I do think taking an over is smart.

Pickett has no wins by finish in the UFC, and the only recent finish that Anders has is knocking out Chris Daukus who everyone did in the UFC. Once these guys get tired, which will be sooner rather than later, neither will have the energy for a finish.

Muhammad Mokaev -270 v Alex Perez +220

It’s pretty difficult to know what we’re getting from Alex Perez. He fought in 2022 against Pantoja and got finished early in round one, and before that he fought Figueiredo in 2020 and got finished early in round one.

Before that, he beat Jussier Forminga, Jordan Espinosa, and Mark De La Rosa, but none of those guys are in the UFC.

So he lost to two elite fighters and beat the way less competition. Mokaev is a nice in-between talent who is 10-0, but it’s not been the most confident run of wins despite the three straight finishes.

It took til round three to finish Malcolm Gordon, he finished short-notice debutant Jafel Filho, and almost lost in an armbar, and he finished Tim Elliott who took the fight on short notice.

I thought the fight against Elliott was his best fight as he seemed more focused and more polished, and with his last three wins coming by submission and Perez’s last two losses being by submission, the obvious pick is Mokaev by submission.

I’m a cautious bettor so I will personally lay off betting on this fight as I don’t know what we’re going to get from Alex Perez. Fighting Pantoja and Figueirdo is a lot different than Mokaev so I think this could be a really close, competitive fight.

Umar Nurmagomedov -1050 v Bekzat Almakhan +675

It says a lot that a fighter that is 17-1 is the biggest underdog on the card. Umar is a title contender in the UFC, and Almakhan is coming from the Octagon and UAE promotions fighting competition no where near what Umar is.

Almakhan is a decnet fighter with plenty of finishes, but he isn’t as powerful or as polished as Nurmagmedov.

The way to play this is to take the fight to not go the distance at -150. Umar has three finishes in four UFC fights, and if he wants to move closer to a title fight he can’t be going to decision against this guy.

He’s shown submission wins, and in his last fight he showed power as he knocked out Raoni Barcelos. If Almakhan is going to pull the upset, it’s going to have to be by a finish and -150 is a really good price considering how big of a favorite Nurmagomedov is.

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Jairzinho Rozenstruik +125 vs Shamil Gaziev -150

What a crazy situation we have where Gaziev made his UFC debut a few months ago, gets the KO win and is now in a main event.

I bet on Gaziev heavy on Contender Series, and he delivered, but I was against him last fight and he proved me wrong, big time.

His striking was fantastic as he damaged the eye of Buday early in the first round, and Buday couldn’t recover, and we didn’t even see the wrestling and ground game of Gaziev in that fight.

Gaziev is 34, which is pretty old for a guy just getting into the UFC, but his first amateur fight was in 2018, and his first pro fight was in 2020 so it’s not like he’s absorbed a bunch of wear and tear for 15 years like most guys in their mid 30s. In face, Rozenstruik is one year older than Gaziev, but has been doing kickboxing and MMA since 2011.

It’s crazy that Gaziev is a favorite, and it’s even more crazy that I like him to win here in his second UFC fight, which is in a main event.

I’ve had a good read on Rozenstruik over the years, and he’s great when he should beat someone, and terrible when he’s the underdog.

His recent wins are to Chris Daukus who is 0-4 in his last 4, Augusto Sakai who was on an 0-4 run, and Junior Dos Santos who was on an 0-5 run. Mixed in there are early finishes to Almeida and Volkov, and a decision loss against Blaydes.

I don’t think Rozenstruik is going to be able to spark Gaziev early in the fight, and Gaziev has a a good enough ground game and striking game to slow down Rozenstruik early, and the longer the fight goes, the more it favors Gaziev. I’ll trust my read on Rozenstruik, and I’ll fade him here. Gaziev is the pick.

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