World Cup Group F Betting Preview | Japan, Netherlands, Sweden and Tunisia

World Cup Group F Preview

Did you know…In the early 2000s, GoldSheet had a sister publication named European Soccer Weekly?! Long before every European soccer (cough football) match was broadcast in the US on ESPN, Peacock and Paramount, Bruce Marshall and Co. were breaking down the action on the pitch. Bruce shares his thoughts on World Cup Group F, which many consider to be the most-balanced group of the tournament.

World Cup Group F Odds

Team	Win the Group	Round of 16	Win the Tournament
Netherlands	-125	-145	+1600
Japan	+250	+140	+4000
Sweden	+460	+290	+15000
Tunisia	+1400	+900	+150000

Odds above courtesy of FanDuel as of June 10.

Netherlands

Is this to be the World Cup where the Dutch finally get rewarded? The near–miss kings of this quadrennial affair, especially the legendary “Total Football” side of 1974 featuring Johan Cruyff, to the bitter loss in overtime in 1978 at hostile Argentina and the heartbreak of 2010 vs. Spain, making it 0-for-3 in finals, more gut-wrenching in each successive match. Indeed, it’s hard to believe that the Netherlands only has one major tourney title (1988 Euros) despite seemingly being in the mix for whatever the tourney every other year.

Maybe this is the year…Ronald Koeman, one of the more decorated Dutch players of all-time, is looking to cap off his managerial career with one big cherry on top in 2026, and on its day, the Netherlands looks the part, sometimes dazzling enough to recall the glory days of years gone by.

Consistency is a bit of an issue, however, despite being undefeated in the qualifiers, as various limp efforts (including a pair of draws vs. Poland) would suggest. Still, the Dutch are a beguiling blend of youth and experience, the latter featuring plenty of veteran hands, including top class sorts such as center-back Virgin van Dijk (Liverpool) and right-back Denzel Dumfries (Inter Milan), each having excelled in past Champions :League action, plus an overload of midfield weapons led by Frenkie de Jong (Barcelona) and emerging Tijjani Reijnders (Man United).

There was some inconsistency on the frontline thru the qualifiers, however, and the April ACL injury suffered by Tottenham’s Xavi Simons vs. Wolves removed one potential livewire. Still, it’s hoped that striker Donyell Malen, who rediscovered his scoring form at Roma (15 goals in 20 matches) after moving from Aston Villa during the January transfer window, can solve some of those issues.

If the tourney form chart holds up, and the Dutch win their group, there looks a navigable path to the quarterfinals, where a Euro heavyweight showdown vs. either Germany or France would likely await. Give the Oranje a puncher’s chance against either, and this could become an interesting side to back, capable of making a very deep run at some very tasty prices.

Japan

There’s no need to act surprised anymore when Japan slays a giant on the international stage. Spain and Germany went down in group action at Qatar four years ago, and recent friendly wins over the likes of England (which rarely loses to anyone these days) and Brazil since last fall remind, and suddenly becoming commonplace for the Blue Samurai, one of the most technically-gifted squads in not just Asia, but the globe.

Continuity helps; manager Hajime Moriyasu has been in charge since just after the 2018 World Cup in Russia, with many of the same faces who made a splash four years ago still in the mix. One who won’t be in USA and Mexico for the group games, however, is key midfielder Kaoru Mitoma, who at Brighton in the EPL suffered a bad late-season hamstring injury that required surgey and will miss Copa Mundial. There have been injury issues beyond the Mitoma hamstring, with several charges, including midfielder Wataru Endo (Liverpool), dealing with their own maladies almost the entirety of this past season.

Still, the level of competition at the World Cup should be no particualr bother, as nowdays most of the Japanese troops ply their trades in biiger European leagues, including prolific striker Ayase Ueda, who banged home a whopping 25 goals for Feyenoord in the Eredivise this past season.

Moreover, the danger of finishing second in Group F is almost surely running into Brazil at the top of the knockout phase, which adds an extra level of drama to the opener at Arlington on July 14 vs. the Dutch in a match between the probable top two finishers in the group. If the dominoes fall as we suspect, the Samba Boys are going to have a chance to avenge that 3-2 loss from last October in Tokyo, and that likely presents a deep run by Japan.

Sweden

Ahh, the fortunes of a football manager. Take the erudite Graham Potter, who began the season on the hot seat at West Ham and was out by September, and had to be wondering what happened to his career that once seemed to have him ticketed to become the next England manager (at least if Gareth Southgate had walked away a few years earlier than he actually did) after his previous engagement at Chelsea also ran aground before the 2022-23 campaign was complete.

Suddenly, out of the blue, the Sweden job opened in front of the final qualifiers (that Sweden was even in a playoff was curious after finishing winless in its qualifier group; winning a lesser UEFA Nations League Group C previously earned the chance), and Potter was right back in the mix, albeit at the international elvel for the first time.

Signed to a short-term deal just to get the Swedes qualified, Potter eventually got the job done in spring by knocking off Ukraine and Poland in the playoffs. Suddenly, he’s a hero to a fan base again and positively loving life in Scandinavia after securing a contract extension to 2030.

Feel-goods aside, we and other observers are not sure this is up to some of the past Swedish entries, especially the 1994 version the last time the event was held in the States, when a Henrik Larsson-led side would finish in third place. Indeed, it might surprise that Sweden didn’t even qualify for three of the four World Cups in front of 2026.

In the playoff matches, Potter had some success instilling a 3-4-3, which seemed to unlock Arsenal’s Viktor Gyorkores up front in the March wins after Gyokores and Liverpool’s Alexander Isak were having problems getting on the same page last fall prior to Isak’s knee injury. Isak is available again but Gyokores, whose Arsenal form improved late in the season after previous high-scoring ways at Sporting Lisbon, looks the main target man, with Anthony Elanga, who came on late in the season for Newcastle, perhaps another option up front.

Spurs’ midfield ace Dejan Kulusevski, however, wasn’t healthy enough to make the final squad, and there have also been injuries to worry about on the defensive end and in goal, where Stoke’s Viktor Johansson missed four months before finally returning to active duty in early May vs Bristol City…and promptly giving up two goals in just five shots on target.

The Swedes can probably cobble a third-place finish and squeeze into the knockout phase, but against a likely winner from another group right at the top doesn’t bode for an extended run.

Tunisia

Will the seventh time be the charm? Tunisia has become a rather familiar face every four years at the World Cup, qualifying for its third-straight Copa Mundial and sixth since 1998. Though what all of the previous excursions (including 1978 in Argentina) have in common are first-round exits as the Tunisians look for their first-ever knockout round berth.

We’re not sure it happens this time, either, though fans in the states won’t get to see Tunisia until the final group match vs. the Netherlands on June 26 in Kansas City, after playing two earlier Group F matches in Monterrey, Mexico (June 15 vs. Sweden and June 21 vs. Japan). Expectations are a bit tempered, however, after the Eagles of Carthage put forth a rather limp display at AFCON last December, not advancing past the final 16, highlighting internal issues that include five coaches in the past two years and a dysfunctional federation.

The latest to give it a whirl on the sidelines will be Sabri Lamouchi, a former French international in his playing days and with several managerial assignments in Europe and the Middle East…not all of them successful, having been sacked two different times in the Saudi league during 2025.

The qualifiers were helped by main threat Equatorial Guinea being docked nine points for various infractions, so we’re not sure what was gleaned despite a successful performance that included zero goals conceded. Which also suggests ultra-pragnatism, as Tunisia is more about frustrating opponents, digging into the dark arts if necessary.

They won’t be a fun matchup, and maybe they can steal a result or two (likely at nil-nil), but in the end it looks a repeat of past World Cup misfires. Unfortunately, some prices at the most-likely outcomes (out in the group phase, “under” 3.5 goals) are prohibitively priced, so proceed with caution.

World Cup Group F Predictions

Netherlands: Best Bet – Win group at -145. Bigger Prices to Watch – Reach quarterfinals at +160, finish 1-2 in group in front of Japan +275, Netherlands top scorer (must win) Donyell Nalan +350, reach semifinals +375.

Japan: Best Bet – Eliminated Round of 32 at +125. Bigger Prices to Watch – Japan top scorer (must win) Ayase Ueda at +250; finish 1-2 in group behind Netherlands +275.

Sweden: Best Bet – Eliminated Round of 32 at +137. Bigger Prices to Watch – Sweden top scorer (must win) Viktor Gyokores +175, finish group on 4 points at +275.

Tunisia: Best Bet – Elimination at group stage +175, under 3.5 goals at -188. Bigger Price to Watch – Finish group on 1 point at +300.

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