World Cup Group D Betting Preview | USA, Turkey, Paraguay and Australia

World Cup Group D Preview

Did you know…In the early 2000s, GoldSheet had a sister publication named European Soccer Weekly?! Long before every European soccer (cough football) match was broadcast in the US on ESPN, Peacock and Paramount, Bruce Marshall and Co. were breaking down the action on the pitch. Bruce shares his thoughts on World Cup Group D, featuring the United States and a trio of teams that will be hot on their heels.

World Cup Group D Odds

Team	Win the Group	Round of 16	Win the Tournament
United States	+125	-130	+6000
Turkey	+175	+110	+8000
Paraguay	+420	+230	+17500
Australia	+850	+490	+250000

Odds above courtesy of FanDuel as of June 9.

United States

Still something of a mystery, without a proper qualifying campaign due to co-host status, and a series of friendly matches in which Mauricio Pocchetino’s eventual staring XI haven’t been together on the pitch. We’re not sure we’ll see that even after the tourney starts, as Crystal Palace defender Chris Richards continues to nurse a nagging ankle injury that kept him out of Palace’s late-season games (including the Conference League final vs. Rayo Vallecano) and recent warm-up matches vs. Senegal and Germany.

We have some other reservations with the USA, Pocchetino in particular, which we suspect was a “vanity hire” by USA Soccer due to Poch’s high profile overseas, in particular past stints at Tottenham, PSG, and Chelsea. That none of those assignments ended particularly well is illustrative of our concerns, more so because Pocchetino was mostly working with all-star caliber rosters: he simply had better players at his disposal, whether it be Harry Kane, Christian Eriksen, Son, Hugo Lloris and others with Spurs, or Mbappe, Messi, and Neymar at PSG.

Safe to say the current USA roster isn’t loaded with that sort of world-class talent, and, besides, we’ve watched USA enough to note how easy it is to play thru this team, even, admittedly, as some expected starters didn’t feature in the rather recent undressings delivered by Belgium and Portugal in March.

Pocchetino prefers a prosaic, front-foot style, which can entertain, though that’s not going to be the recipe to beat any heavyweights with more talent in this event. Moreover, there are potential distractions, with Poch only signed thru the World Cup, and apparently being courted by AC Milan and others overseas for their managerial openings (stay tuned).

We suspect Poch might have been better-served to take a page from Bruce Arena’s strategy book back in 2002, USA’s best showing for the past 76 years at Copa Mundial when reaching the quarterfinals, a gnarly outfit that was tough to play against, defended physically, and played on the counter. After watching Belgium, Portugal, and even Senegal in the May 31 friendly just waltz too easily thru the USA defense has to be a red flag.

Star Christian Pulisic hardly suggested as much in a difficult Serie A campaign at AC Milan when he didn’t score after the calendar turned to 2026 (though he did finally net in the Senegal friendly at Charlotte). Expect Monaco striker Folarin Balogun (19 goals in all competitions this past season) to emerge as the effective target-man. We also wouldn’t expect Fulham defender Antonee Robinson to replicate his thunderbolt volley in the 2-1 loss to Germany on June 6.

Lastly, is Poch really going to fall back to the Greg Berhalter days and use Matt Turner (now in MLS) in goal? If USA can land top of this winnable group, what would look to be a favorable draw vs. a third-place side at the top of the knockout phase could extend the involvement, though we’d be shocked if Poch steers the Yanks past the final 16.

Turkey

While not the best group at the World Cup, this might be the most competitive with the Turks almost rated on a par with USA to prevail in this quartet.

Not a team to sleep on after the impressive showing at the Euros two summers ago when reaching the quarterfinals, where the Netherlands was behind into the 70th minute before eventually emerging thanks in no small part to an own goal courtesy Turkey’s Mert Muldur. Nonetheless, valuable recent experience on the big stage, with Italian manager Vincenzo Montella now getting his second crack at a big tourney after having his contract extended to 2020.

It’s a seasoned group, with most of the same lineup thru the qualifiers, which included a 2-2 draw with Spain (after admittedly getting thrashed on the road 6-0 by the Euro holders) and back-to-back playoff wins over Romania and Kosovo to punch their ticket to the World Cup.

Turkey will attack, netting 17 times in six qualifying group games, with young livewires Arda Güler (Real Madrid) and Kenan Yildiz (Juventus) already making their marks in La Liga and Serie A, respectively, while veteran midfielder Hakan Çalhanoglu (Inter Milan) adds a valuable stabilizing presence. A situation to monitor involves Güler, who missed last-season action at the Bernabeu due to a strained hamstring, though all indicators point to him being ready for the opener on June 14 in Vancouver vs. Australia.

Shortcomings? Turkey isn’t about shutting down foes, rather simply outscoring them, which should make for some wildly entertaining viewing, bordering on must-see stuff for a new audience perhaps not familiar with this gung-ho style. Though frequent leaks on defense often put too much pressure on GK Ugurcan Çakir (Galatasaray), which will likely be the cause of an eventual exit. Still, the Turks will be a fun watch and are capable of pipping the USA and the others at the top of D.

Paraguay

They’re back, though not sure neutral observers are going to be too thrilled. A bit hard to believe, but Paraguay hasn’t been at a World Cup since 2010; when last seen on this stage, La Albirroja was giving eventual winners Spain all it could handle in the quarterfinals sixteen summers ago at Johannesburg, forcing a penalty-kick save from Iker Casillas in the 57th minute, then denying Xabi Alonso from the spot a few minutes later before David Villa finally settled a nervy match in the 83rd minute. It’s worth noting that in the last five Paraguay World Cup appearances, on four occasions it has advanced into the knockout phase, knocked out in group play only in 2006 at Germany.

Always pragmatic and resolute in defense, Paraguay are historically hard to break down, a traditional quality embraced by manager Gustavo Villa in the qualifiers. In the l-o-n-g, 18-match run in the CONMEBOL qualifiers, Paraguay conceded just ten goals, demonstaring a time-tested ability to make every foe uncomfortable. Thrusts the other way often come on the counter (if they come at all); note that main target man Antonio Sanabria scored just ocne from Cremonese in Serie A this season.

If anyone is to unlock the gate, perhaps it will be lively midfielder Julio Enciso, who did exhibit some admirable flair on occasions this campaign in Ligue Un for Strasbourg.

Given the dynamics, we are very tempted to look “under” 5.5 goals for the tourney except it is being offered at a rather prohibitive -188, though that still seems a decent idea. The always-threat of a nil-nil suggests Paraguay can be adept at grinding out results, and perhaps scraping thru to the knockout phase (likely as a third-place finisher), but there isn’t enough flair to indicate Alfaro’s troops will be anything other than a bit of a nuisance.

Australia

The Socceroos are becoming something a fixture in this event every four years, having qualified now for six-straight World Cups since 2006 in Germany. Four years ago in Qatar, for the second time, the Aussies made it to the knockout phase.

They qualified again for 2026 though minus gaffer Graham Arnold (now managing Iraq), who led the troops four years ago but dismissed after some early poor showings in the group phase. Though eventually, the Aussies battled thru under former Crystal Palace and Socceroo defender Tony Popovic, with qualification eventually assured without even the need to do so in the playoffs after seeing off Japan and the Saudis in the group phase.

Though Popovic did shepherd improved efforts, the Aussies are unlikely to become the darlings of any neutrals because of their pragmatic (or, if you prefer, dull) style designed to soak up pressure and then hit on the counter. This fits the personnel, robust physically but lacking technically, with few incisive edges capable of unlocking an enemy defense. In other words, a typical Aussie side, though in a competitive group like D, repeating the 2022 Qatar trick and advancing to the knockout phase looks a challenge.

If there is to be any flair, perhaps it comes from lively Waftord midfielder Nestory Irankunda, or, more likely, Norwich striker Mohamed Toure, who did bag a hat-trick late in the season for the Canaries against Bristol City.

Yet the fact the most lively components ply their trade in the England Championship, not the Premier League or any of the other top-tier European leagues, sums up the challenge the Aussies face merely emerging from the group phase. Can a trio of nil-nil draws see the Socceroos thru to the next round?

World Cup Group D Predictions

United States: Best Bet – To reach Round of 16. Bigger Price Watch – Stage of elimination last 16 at +275, USA leading scorer (must win) Folarin Balogun at +400.

Turkey: Best Bet – Over 5.5 goals at -138. Bigger Price Watch – Turkey to win group D at +175, elimination Round of 16 at +200, finish group 1-2 in front of USA at +400, Turkey leading scorer (must win) Kenan Yildiz at +600.

Paraguay: Best Bet – Eliminated Round of 32 at +137, Under 5.5 goals at -188. Bigger Price Watch – Paraguay top scorer (must win) Julio Enciso at +800.

Australia: Best Bet – Finish bottom of Group D at -120, eliminated at group stage at -125, “Under” 3.5 goals at -163. Bigger Price Watch – Australia top scorer (must win) Mohamed Toure at +400, lowest scoring World Cup team at +2500.

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