Arsenal vs PSG Prediction | UEFA Champions League Final Preview for May 30

Arsenal vs PSG Preview

With the World Cup heading to North America this summer, GoldSheet will be ramping up its soccer coverage over the next few weeks. WagerTalk handicapper and GoldSheet’s featured writer Bruce Marshall previews Saturday’s Arsenal vs PSG clash in Budapest for the UEFA Champions League crown.

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The conventional narrative for this Champions League title clash at Budapest is offense vs. defense…specifically PSG’s offense vs. Arsenal’s defense. While on the surface that’s not necessarily an inaccurate read, the truth in this outcome will probably be decided somewhere in between, where the lines are a bit more blurred.

Arsenal’s Current Form

For the Gunners, it’s been about defense all season, sometimes to the consternation of a fan base that wants to be a bit more entertained, but who’s to argue with Mikel Arteta’s strategy that provided Arsenal its first EPL crown in 22 years, and has kept the Gunners unbeaten to this stage in the Champions League (allowing only 4 goals in the process)?

By us, however, PSG presents an altogether different challenge, one much like a similar Arsenal couldn’t handle in last spring’s semifinal round, when PSG advanced raher comfortably on a 3-1 aggregate. True, a deciding factor in last year’s KO phase was Luis Enrique’s giant GK Gigi Donnarumma, who has since moved to Man City; and serviceable, Matvei Safonov is not as commanding a presence in the box as Donnarumma.

Yet we suspect the dynamics are going to be much different for Arsenal than they were thru much of the season in the EPL and even in the KO phase of the Campions League, when few opponents have really given it a go and challenged Arteta’s troops.

It’s worth noting that in the two most-recent matches vs. Man City, in the Carabao Cup final on March 22 and a meeting at the Etihad on April 19, Pep Guardiola outmaneuvered Arteta twice in a pair of City wins in which it didn’t concede a goal (2-0 and 1-0), famously in the Cup final not bothering to press Arsenal up high, effectively daring the Gunners to make something happen.

Arsenal has also caught a bit of a break in the KO phase, getting Sporting Lisbon and Atletico de Madrid (which upset Barcelona in the quarterfinals, sparing Arteta from dealing with the firepower at Hansi Flick’s disposal), both requiring very hard work, while PSG was routing another pair of EPL foes in the knockouts (Chelsea and Liverpool by a combined 12-2) before ousting powerhouse Bayern Munich in the semis.

PSG’s Current Form

Luis Enrique might not be looking at a similar strategy, but likely went to school on Guardiola’s strategy, and will nonetheless will try to dictate matters, even if hoofing the ball deep and out of bounds, from as early as the opening kickoff, to force Arsenal to play out from the back…something Inter Milan famously couldn’t do in the Champions League final last year, or many Ligue Un foes, or several Champions League opponents, often conceding possession to PSG before the ball gets close to midfield.

While PSG’s defense is considered by some to be suspect, it’s more because Luis Enrique’s troops can leave themselves a bit exposed at times with their all-out attack style. Though, in Nuno Mendes, PSG has perhaps the best defender on the planet, and one that looks a proper match for the Gunners’ Bukayo Saka, Arteta’s most creative element in the attacking end.

We suspect the dominant PSG midfield puts Arsenal under the pump far more than it has been all season, and that Vitinha, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, and Fabian Ruiz control the approach before Ballon d’Or holder Ousmane Dembele, Bradley Barcola, or Désiré Doué finish off the build-up.

Arsenal vs PSG Prediction

It will take a heroic effort from Arsenal’s capable GK David Raya to give the Gunners a chance, but we don’t think this will work any better for Arteta against PSG than it did last spring, especially if the Gunners are forced to play from behind.

The 3-way win price on PSG at +140 or thereabouts (on 90 minutes) looks good value to us and our preferred recommendation, and as Luis Enrique’s charges have been adept at scoring first (often early, as from Demeble in the second leg vs. Bayern Munich, and the Emirates leg of the semis vs. Arsenal a year ago), PSG Halftime/Fulltime at +275 offers a very real chance at a nicer return.

If looking for some fun with supplemental wagers, either Dembele or Doue, or Demberle and Kvararskhelia, to score first would each return +300, while just backing Dembele to score at +175 might be worth a look for a small punt as well.

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