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UFC Fight Night Nashville: Sandhagen vs Font Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds August 5

UFC Fight Night Picks and Predictions

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night Nashville predictions and picks for August 5 with Cory Sandhagen vs Rob Font headlining the event. The main card starts up at 9:00pm ET from Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, TN.

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Cory Sandhagen vs Rob Font: UFC Fight Night Nashville Main Event

Saturday, August 5UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:Cory Sandhagen -305 vs Rob Font +240
Rounds:4.5 Rounds (Over -125 / Under -105)
Fight Time:Main Card Starts at 9:00pm ET / 6:00pm PT
Arena:Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, TN
TV:ESPN

UFC Fight Night Expert Predictions

Asu Almabaev -150 v Ode Osbourne +130

Interesting to see Almabaev as a favorite making his UFC debut against Osbourne, but I get it. Osbourne hasn’t been impressive in the UFC going 4-3 with one of his wins being against a guy who is 4-4 as a pro. I’m just not sure what he does great.

He barely won a split decision against Charles Johnson (who I’m not high on at all), and he didn’t overwhelm with striking or takedowns or ground game, and in his previous fight he got KO’d by Tyson Nam when he tried a really dumb flying knee that Nam cracked him on the way down.

Almabaev is tough to figure out beach he hasn’t been fighting great competition in BRAVE CF. He fights a lot like Osbourne where he has finishes on his record, but against who? He won a close split decision against Zach Makovsky who fought in Bellator and in the UFC, but back in the mid 2010’s.

He’s 40 now and has lost three out of four and he almost beat Almabaev. No play on picking a winner, but 100% this will be in To Start Round 2 parlay as I think this has going the distance written all over it.

Both guys appear to be equal and this could be a close one with neither fighter doing a lot of damage to the other.

UFC Nashville Fight Night: Cory Sandhagen v Rob Font - Predictions, Bets, Breakdowns, Picks and Odds
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Jake Hadley -170 v Cody Durden +145

I understand why Hadley is the favorite here, but I think this fight is pretty close. Hadley is going to be the more active fighter on the feet, and his kicks and punches are pretty quick, and his ground game is really good as evident by his submission over Candelario.

Durden is going to try and backpack Hadley and make it a pure wrestling match, and he may have success with it as this will be Hadley’s toughest test outside of Allan Nascimento who handed him his first loss.

I don’t have any interest in betting who will win this fight, but overs definitely have my attention and I will certainly play this fight to start round 2.

Jeremiah Wells -150 v Carlston Harris +140

Really good matchmaking here and the price is right where I would put it. Wells is 4-0 in the UFC and Harris is on a 5-1 run, but let’s be honest…not the best competition.

Harris just beat Jared Gooden who got booted from the UFC once before, and just isn’t UFC caliber and Wells just beat Semelsberger who isn’t looking good. I like Wells as his striking is definitely more crisp and in control on the feet as Harris lunges with his jabs and he telegraphs them with no creativity or set up.

He was able to get Gooden on the ground in rounds two and three last fight, but Gooden is so bad and offered no defense. Wells used takedowns of his own against Semelsberger and did decent ground and pound, and Semelsberger is better than Gooden so Wells’s performance was better than Harris’s in my opinion. I think Wells is a bit better everywhere, but especially in the striking department. I like Wells in this one.

Kyler Phillips -175 v Raoni Barcelos +150

I think this price is about right as Barcelos just doesn’t seem to have it anymore. He’s 36, and 1-3 in his last four with his win being against Trevin Jones who is on an 0-4 skid.

His last fight he got KO’s in the first round by Nurmagomedov, and his speed has clearly diminished. He really doesn’t have any upside, and I don’t think he has much advantage over Phillips anywhere.

Phillips got a submission win in the third round against Rojo last time out showing that has skills that last over three rounds. Nurmagomedov was able to land kicks and strikes in the first round resulting in the KO, and I think Phillips will have the same success.

Phillips doesn’t have the power of Nurmagomedov, but Phillips just has to stay out of the way of the body and head kicks or Barcelos and he should wear down Barcelos.

Barcelos’s KO was a bad one as it was a short left hook and he bounced his head hard off the mat, and it was the first time he had been knocked out so it might be sign of things to come. Phillips is the play and -175 seems about the right price.

Billy Quarantillo -175 v Damon Jackson +150

Maybe a bit of overreaction here on Jackson as he just got finished by Dan Ige, but Ige looked fantastic from start to finish in that fight, and while Billy Q is good, on his best day he isn’t as good as Ige was in that fight against Daman Jackson.

Before that fight Damon Jackson was 5-1 in the UFC with his loss being to Ilia Topuria. Billy Q fights are always fun with a lot of action, but he is actually 2-3 in his last five after Edson Barboza knocked him out with a knee in April.

Jackson’s last two wins have come against wrestlers, but his decision win against Argueta doesn’t tell the tale that Argueta was fighting up a weight division on short notice, and Jackson’s win against Sabbatini was due to a quick head kick early in the fight that was a surprised to everyone.

It should be a fight with fireworks, and I give the edge to Billy Q with the speed and cardio if the fight gets to round 3. I’m not excited about laying -175 so I probably won’t, but if this fight is 1-1 going into round 3, I would live bet Billy as he should win round 3.

Ignacio Bahamondes -200 v Ludovit Klein +170

I liked what I saw from Bahamondes in his last fight against Ogden as the 25 year old showed good use of his reach with his jabs and kicks. Ogden was on a 4-1 run coming into that fight so Bahamondes didn’t beat a can.

He controlled the pace and and the space in the ring. He didn’t bloody up Ogden, but it was a great technical performance and his cardio was excellent.

Klein is a solid striker, especially if he can close the distance and get in the pocket as he has good hand speed, but I think the length of Bahamondes is going to be the difference in this fight.

Jai Herbert used his length well last fight against Klein, and if not for the point taken away from Herbert, Klein would’ve lost the fight. The price is a bit steep, but if you want to lower it take Bahamondes to win by decision as Klein is too smart and too tough to get finished.

Tanner Boser -180 v Aleksa Camur +155

Both these guys have little to no defense on the feet so I expect this fight to be sloppy and weirdly exciting at times. Tanner Boser moved to light heavyweight last fight and got promptly knocked out making it a 1-4 run for him in the UFC.

He just can’t block punches, he can’t stop takedowns, and he just seems to do enough to lose fights. Camur isn’t much better as he’s lost his last two fights, but he does have decent power, but he’s low volume with sloppy movement.

This is probably a loser leaves the UFC type of fight, and the only way to bet it is Dog Or Pass, but I’ll happily not bet a penny on this fight.

Diego Lopes -130 v Gavin Tucker +110

We haven’t seen Gavin Tucker in almost 2.5 years since his loss to Dan Ige, a fight he took on short notice, and he only lasted 22 seconds as Ige KO’d him early. Before that Tucker had won three in a row over Quarantillo, Jaynes and Seung Woo Choi.

I won’t be betting on Gavin Tucker because of the inactivity of a guy that’s 37 years old, and I just don’t know what we’ll get out of him. Lopes made his debut just a couple months ago against Evloev, and put on an incredible performance in his debut.

Evloev was supposed to have the advantage everywhere but Lopes almost submitted Evloev a couple times, and more than held his own on the feet.

I lean towards Lopes just because of how good he looked just within the last couple months, but I just can’t get to the window with a bet on this fight as Tucker is a wildcard with the long layoff.

Kennedy Nzechukwu -150 v Dustin Jacoby +130

I like the progression that Kennedy is on, and I would go with him I this fight as I’m down on Jacoby. Kennedy suffered back to back losses to Nicolai Negumereanu and Da Un Jung, but has rebounded nicely winning three in a row, all by finish.

He has shown toughness and a really good striking guard which has lead to opponents getting tired trying to unload on him in the clinch, and on the flip side he’s shown great elbows and strikes in close.

Jacoby is a boxer who hasn’t looked great in his last two fights losing a close one to Rountree and Murzakanov. In his last fight he really got pieced up on the feet and he lost the striking battle which is supposed to be his strong suit, and Jacoby had the long reach advantage.

Based on what I’ve seen from Jacoby the last two fights I don’t see the upside in Jacoby, and Nzechukwu looks like he has more tools in the shed with his striking, clinch and submission game. I like Kennedy in this one.

Tatiana Suarez -450 v Jessica Andrade +360

Suarez made her much anticipated return after injuries caused a big layoff, and she was able to get the win over De La Rosa, but it wasn’t in the dominating form that she showed before the layoff.

Suarez likes to maul her opponents and win on the ground with ground and pound or submission, and it’s an interesting matchup against Andrade who has lost two in a row, but he losses were to a striker in Yan where Andrade got knocked out by the bigger and stronger fighter, and to Erin Blanchfield who is undefeated in the UFC and on her way to a title run.

Andrade has the look of a fighter who is nearing the end as she’s taking every fight that’s come her way recently as this will be her fourth fight in 2023. Andrade seems to be falling off and Suarez was able to get the ring rust out of the way in her last fight, but Andrade is tough and I don’t want to bet this fight.

The price is too high to bet on Suarez, but I don’t want to bet on Andrade. To be safe, I’ll lay off this fight and keep in mind this is the really obvious parlay piece on this card which should concern everyone as every casual bettor will surely be on Suarez.

UFC Fight Night Nashville Main Event: Cory Sandhagen -305 v Rob Font +240

Font’s boxing looked great against Yanez in his last fight, and that was a much needed win after dropping two straight. Font got the early finish on a sick punch in round one, but here’s the truth…he was getting busted up by Yanez up until that point.

He already had damage to his face when he got the finish, and it spells trouble for Font against Sandhagen. Sandhagen isn’t going to absorb the shots that Yanez did, but I do think Sandhagen can land whatever he wants on Rob.

Font needs someone to stand in front of him and box so he can land the jabs and hooks, but Sandhagen’s movement, guard and kicks will make it extremely difficult. I also think Sandhagen can get a takedown if he wants like he did against Marlon Vera last fight, and I see this fight being a showcase of all of Sandhagen’s weapons.

Font’s path to victory is to get Cory to stand and bang and then catch him with a big shot like he did with Yanez, but Sandhagen doesn’t fight like that. He’s too well rounded for Font and I think he wins this fight in convincing fashion.

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