UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Lewis Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds November 4

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night predictions and picks for November 4th with Jailton Almeida vs Derrick Lewis headlining the event in a heavyweight fight. The main card starts up at 9:00pm ET from Ginasio Do Ibirapuera, Sao Paulo, Brazil.

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Jailton Almeida vs Derrick Lewis: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, November 4	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Jailton Almeida -520 vs Derrick Lewis +385
Rounds:	1.5 Rounds (Over +270 / Under -340)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 9:00pm ET / 6:00pm PT
Arena:	Ginasio Do Ibirapuera, Sao Paulo, Brazil
TV:	ESPN+

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UFC Fight Night Predictions

Kaue Fernandes +130 v Marc Diakiese -155

Betting on Marc Diakiese can be dangerous, but I like him a lot in this matchup. Fernandes has a good record coming out of Shooto Brasil, and he’s 2-1 in LFA, but his two wins were quick knockouts, and his loss was a decision win where he won the first round by laying on his opponent, and his cardio fell off a cliff and he lost the next two rounds.

Diakiese has lost two in a row, but unless Fernandes has worked on his cardio big time I think Diakiese grinds out a decision win.

Fernandes likes to throw kicks, but again, his cardio goes away and he stops throwing them. Diakese should survive the early attack from Fernandes and win a fairly boring fight.

Eduarda Moura -395 v Montserrat Ruiz +310

Eduarda Moura is making her UFC debut and is a massive favorite for good reason. She is undefeated, and is a takedown specialist who knows how to finish on the ground, and Ruiz is coming off a loss where she got taken down and dominated until she was finished on the ground by Amorim.

Ruiz doesn’t have great striking, and Moura won’t be afraid to shoot since Ruiz won’t be a threat to knock her out, and her takedown defense looked pretty bad last fight. Moura ML is a good parlay piece.

Angela Hill +110 v Denise Gomes -130

Denise Gomes is a fantastic striker, and at only 23 years old, she has a long career ahead of her in the UFC.

The question here, is can she handle a veteran like Angela Hill, and not get too excited and tire herself out going for the big highlight reel finish.

She just pulled a big upset in her KO of Jauregui only 20 seconds into the fight as she showed her upside in the striking department.

Hill is 38 and is moving towards her full time announcing career, but she just went the distance with Mackenzie Dern, and beat Emily Ducote and Lupita Godinez before that.

However, I believe in the upside that Gomes has and she just throws so hard and accurate that I think she gets the KO or does enough damage to slow down Hill. It’s a pretty good price on a powerful fighter with knockout power.

Vitor Petrino -258 v Modestas Bukauskas +210

Modestas Bukauskas has beaten Tyson Pedro and Zac Pauga in his two fights since returning to the UFC, and he’s used the same style in both fights where he keeps his distance, uses his jab and movement, and lets his opponents tire out.

Pedro and Pauga showed pretty bad cardio as both were pretty tired in the third round, and while Petrino doesn’t have great cardio I think it’s better than those two.

I also think Bukauskas was tired by round three in the Pauga fight so I’m not sure his style will work here. Petrino is 9-0, and looked better last fight when he submitted Prachnio (Prachnio has bad cardio as well) in the third round, and I like how he’s progressed over the last couple years.

He was knocking guys out in round one on lower promotions, but his game is getting more well rounded and I think his power will set up his takedowns nice here.

Once on the ground, it’s big advantage Petrino so I give him the nod here. I don’t think I would lay this juice, and I don’t know if this fight goes the distance so it will be a pass for me betting wise, but I do think Petrino gets the win.

Rinat Fakhretdinov -345 v Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos +275

I think the line is right as Fakhretkinov should win, and I think it’s worth a parlay piece.

I’ll start with Dos Santos who is in his late 30s and he doesn’t fight much as he’s fought twice in almost two years beating Benoit Saint-Denis and Abubakar Nurmagomedov, and althought the Nurmagomedov fight was a few months ago, I didn’t think he looked amazing.

It was a split decision, and he didn’t do much damage and he took strikes and lost several clinch battles. Fakhretdinov has looked great recently as he got the quick submission against Kevin Lee in his last fight, and before that he looked amazing against Bryan Battle as he showed striking and wrestling in his arsenal.

I believe he has too much for Dos Santos, and I think he wins a dominant decision here.

Victor Hugo v Daniel Marcos

Victor Hugo is coming off a win on Contender Series last month, and he’s an entertaining fighter that is constantly looking for submissions, particularly with leg submissions, and when researching him for Contender Series, you’ll find there isn’t much film on him.

It was a great performance on Contender Series, but Daniel Marcos is undefeated, and I don’t think Hugo has fought anyone as good as Marcos.

Marcos is a bit low volume on the feet, but his strikes are accurate and powerful and he stays out of harms way while landing his strikes.

Hugo’s style is a bit wild, and he leaves himself open on the feet, and I don’t see him overcoming the strikes that Marcos will put on him. Marcos by decision is my pick.

Elves Brener -145 v Esteban Ribovics +124

I believe Elves Brenner has the higher upside, and that’s why he’s favored, but this fight is probably a stay away.

Brener is coming off a stunning win against Guram Kutateladze where he was losing, and got a flash KO in round three, but give him credit for being tough and having the power to end it late.

I’m just not impressed with Ribovics at the UFC level, he doesn’t seem to have KO power, doesn’t have a great ground game, and his last fight was a pretty underwhelming win against Kamuela Kirk where neither guy showed much potential. I won’t be betting on this fight

Ismael Bonfim -440 v Vinc Pichel +340

Ismael Bonfim suffered his first loss in nine years, but it was against Benoit Saint-Denis who looks like a monster at this point, and who is really big for the division so I’m not going to downgrade Bonfim for that loss.

He’s getting a really nice get right spot against 40 year old Vinc Pichel who lost to Mark Madsen a year and a half ago, and hasn’t fought since.

Two of his last three wins have been against Roosevelt Roberts and Austin Hubbard, two guys who were cut from the UFC and were on The Ultimate Fighter this recent season.

Bonfim isn’t scared to take strikes to deliver them, but he does take too many shots for my liking. I just don’t think Pichel will be able to exploit the weakness of Bonfim.

He looked old and slow against Madsen a year and a half ago, I don’t think he’s gotten younger. Bonfim should be too much for Pichel, use him as a parlay piece.

Armen Petrosyan -112 v Rodolfo Vieira -108

I love the value on Armen Petrosyan here as he tends to get stronger the longer the fight goes on, and Vieira tails off as his cardio goes away.

Vieira will shoot for takedowns over and over, but if he doesn’t land them he gets tired and he gets beat on the feet as we saw against Chris Curtis.

He came back with a submission win over Cody Brundage, but there is no fighter I’m lower on than Cody Brundage. Petrosyan comes off a win against Chris Duncan where he wore down Duncan and pulled away late, and I believe that’s what he does here using his somewhat low volume, but effective strikes.

He may lose round one, but I just trust him over three rounds to outlast Vieira in a close decision win.

Caio Borralho -265 v Abus Magomedov +215

I’m pretty surprised that money has come in on Magomedov as this line opened at -360 and I’m pretty confident in the game plan for Caio Borralho here.

Abus Magomedov has good striking, but only for a few minutes and we saw how terrible his cardio is against Sean Strickland when he gassed hard and got knocked out.

There’s no reason for Borralho to stay on the feet for very long as Magomedov’s only path to victory is an early KO.

Borralho a master at takedowns and ground game, and he’s so powerful that I don’t think he’ll have a problem getting Magomedov on the ground.

Once he gets Magomedov on the ground, he’ll get the finish as Abus will tire out and give in to ground and pound or submission. Borralho ML is a solid play, or just wait til props come out and take Caio ITD.

Rodrigo Nascimento -192 v Don’Tale Mayes +160

Take this fight to go the distance. These two guys are very low volume in the striking department, and they both lose their KO power a couple minutes into the fight.

Mayes is coming off a KO win, but it was against Arlovski who is way past his prime. Nascimento has better kicks in my opinion, but Mayes may be a bit more powerful striker.

Regardless, these guy are pretty evenly matched, so the value is in the dog, but I don’t see a finish in this fight. I’ll take the over.

Gabriel Bonfim -520 v Nicolas Dalby +390

Huge odss here on Gabriel Bonfim, but I’m not sure he’s going to be able to overwhelm Dalby like he has his previous opponents.

He’s finished Trey Waters, Mounir Lazzez and Trevin Giles in the first round in his first three fights in the UFC, but Dalby is a warrior, and has tons of experience and likes to take fights into deep waters.

Dalby has five wins in the UFC and all of them are by decision so he has the cardio and the weapons to last for all three rounds.

This fight is probably going to the ground at some point, and that’s where the fight gets interesting as Bonfim will be looking to lock up a submissions, and Dalby will be trying to defend and tire out Bonfim.

I can’t bet on Bonfim in this matchup because I’m not sure what happens if he goes hard in the first round and doesn’t get the finish.

Bonfim should get the win, but I’m just not ready to be against Dalby who has shown extreme toughness and grit the last few fights. This fight is a stay away.

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Jailton Almeida -520 vs Derrick Lewis +385

I don’t know why Derrick Lewis accepted this fight as it seems like this is a bad matchup for him. Let’s not get too excited about his last win as it was a flying knee KO 30 seconds into the fight, and we didn’t see his cardio get tested in that fight.

Jailton Almeida will test his cardio, and he’ll certainly test Lewis’s takedown defense and ground game as it’s been a big weakness for Lewis. Almeida’s competition hasn’t been great to start his UFC career, but he’s taken care of business going 5-0 with all five finishes coming by finish.

Lewis is going to have to land some heavy shots early to slow down Almeida, but I think Almeida avoids the heavy hits and wraps up Lewis, and once he down he’ll wear Lewis down, and get him on the ground. It’s just a terrible stylistic matchup for Lewis, I think Almeida ITD is a solid bet.

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