Free MLB Picks Today – Four MLB Games Predictions for 8/15/2023

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The Pulse: Daily MLB Betting Picks for Tuesday, Aug. 15

Guardians at Reds Prediction

GUARDIANS (-115) at REDS (-105), 6:40 p.m. ET, Total: 9.5

The Reds and Guardians will get together four times between now and the end of the regular season, squaring off twice in Cincinnati over the next two nights and in Cleveland on Sept. 26-27. Both teams have reached mid-August with legitimate postseason aspirations, with the home team right on the cusp of an NL Wild Card bid and the Guardians 4.5 games behind Minnesota in the AL Central despite being five games under .500. If one of these teams find a way to capitalize and claim all four games in this interleague, interstate clash, it could go a long way in getting to the playoffs.

Rookie lefty Logan Allen (5-5, 3.55 ERA) has been a bright spot for Cleveland and gets the ball for this first of a two-game set, looking to stay hot since he’s allowed just three runs over 11 innings this month. Although he opened his career with eight straight starts surrendering three or fewer runs, Allen slumped in June and July but seems to be getting back on track and should be solid down the stretch if he can keep the walks down. No current Reds player have faced Allen at the big-league level. Cincinnati second-year righty Graham Ashcraft (6-7, 4.95) was dreadful in May and most of June, but since the final day of that month, has surrendered two or fewer earned runs in seven of eight starts. Ashcraft has produced a quality start in all but one of his last eight outings, reducing his ERA from 7.17 to 4.95. He’s got no history against any current Guardians in the bigs, but has struggled at home (3-6, 5.79), giving up 14 of the 18 home runs he’s surrendered in 2023 at Great American Ballpark.

THE PLAY – Guardians Player Prop Pick

Cleveland star Jose Ramirez has struggled mightily against left-handed pitching in 2023, barely hitting over .200 and slashing below-average numbers. However, he’s still formidable against righties and should be able to get to Ashcraft inside a hitter-friendly park. Ride Guardians 3B Jose Ramirez to top his hits + runs + RBI prop at a manageable number since he’s batting .156 this month and needs to turn up in order for his team to have a chance at rallying in order to return to the postseason for the sixth time in seven years.

Tigers at Twins Prediction

TIGERS (+165) at TWINS (-195), 7:40 p.m. ET, Total: 8.5

Losing two of three to the Red Sox didn’t help, but the Tigers still arrive in Minnesota with momentum after sweeping the first-place Twins last week, improving to 7-3 against them this season. If Detroit can sweep this two-game set, it can pull within six games of first place with 40 to go. A split wouldn’t move the needle and getting swept would spell the end of realistic hope, but Detroit does have a very real opportunity to play some meaningful ball over the next six weeks if it can handle business on Tuesday and Wednesday.

With Alex Faedo (2-4, 5.80) taking the mound for only his third road start of the season, Detroit is likely going to have to score in order to pick up a win. Faedo has an excellent WHIP (1.07), but he’s been awful in three of his last four starts, shining only against a Padres team he one-hit over six innings before being set back down to Triple-A. He didn’t get the win last Wednesday in a 9-5 triumph over the Twins, but did get 17 hits-worth of run support against Bailey Ober (6-6, 3.40) and Minnesota’s bullpen. The 6-foot-9 Ober, who has given up 11 hits in two of his last three starts, will get the ball again and has been pretty sharp at home throughout his short career. Current Tigers are batting .323 against him, with table-setters Zach McKinstry (3-for-6, 3 doubles) and Matt Vierling (3-for-5) really seeing Ober well. Spencer Torkelson is 1-for-11 with five strikeouts, but his lone hit was a home run. Faedo has held the Twins to a 4-for-26 (.154) effort, though he has surrendered homers to Carlos Correa and Joey Gallo.

THE PLAY – Tigers at Twins Full Game Total Bet 

Ober should fare better at Target Field, but simply hasn’t been sharp over the past month. Four Tigers had at least three hits against Minnesota in last week’s win when these pitchers matched up last Wednesday, and Ober has given up a home run in each of his last five starts, surrendering seven over 36 innings. Faedo has been incredibly inconsistent in his brief career, so ride the over on 8.5 runs for the full game in this key AL Central clash.

White Sox at Cubs Prediction

WHITE SOX (+170) at CUBS (-145), 8:05 p.m. ET, Total: 8.5

The Cubs were rolling when they visited the Southside late last month, sweeping a pair from the White Sox in the middle of what ended up being a season-long eight-game win streak. Now back home at Wrigley after failing to sweep the Blue Jays following a Sunday loss north of the border, the Cubs look to clinch the Crosstown Classic for 2023 after losing the cup by falling in three of four last season. The Sox are looking to play spoiler given that they’re 25 games under .500 while the Cubs are in the thick of the Wild Card chase, coming in tied with Cincinnati on the outside looking in, one game back of Miami. With a three-game homestand coming up against the Royals and visits to Detroit and Pittsburgh coming up next week, the Cubs can go on a run and put themselves in position to overtake the NL Central-leading Brewers when they come to town from Aug. 28-30.

First things first, however, and what’s on tap immediately is a date with Southsiders. Kyle Hendricks (4-6, 3.96), typically excellent at Wrigley, is just 1-4 with a 5.50 ERA, giving up 22 earned runs over 36 innings. Hendricks got wrecked in his last home start, allowing seven runs and two homers over four frames in an 8-0 loss to the Braves. His only home win came on June 16 over the Orioles, but he’s given up three or fewer earned runs in 12 of his 15 outings in 2023. Chicago has dropped the last three games Hendricks has started, and he’s just 2-6 against the White Sox with a 4.77 ERA over 12 appearances. Current Sox hitters are batting .238 against Hendricks, with Yasmani Grandal (2-for-20) and Yoan Moncada (1-for-14 really struggling. Luis Robert Jr. has gone 4-for-9 (.444) with a pair of homers, Eloy Jimenez is hitting .308 (4-for-13) with a two homers, and Tim Anderson has gone 7-for-22 (.318) against Hendricks, so there will be some danger spots for the Cubs veteran righty to navigate. Touki Toussaint (1-5, 4.27) has made 10 appearances for the White Sox, six of them starts, and has largely struggled, completing six innings only once in a July 19 loss to the Mets in which he gave up five runs, walked four and took a loss. Toussaint pitched one scoreless inning out of the bullpen against the Cubs on July 26. This will be his third appearance at Wrigley, but just his first start. Current Cubs are 0-for-6 against Toussaint.

THE PLAY – White Sox Player Prop Pick  

Robert missed the weekend series vs. the Brewers with a pinky injury but is expected back on Tuesday. He ranks second in the AL with 31 home runs and has hit safely in seven straight games, scoring four time and driving in five in that span. Expect him to return and stay hot against Hendricks. Ride White Sox OF Luis Robert Jr. to top his runs + hits + RBI prop.

Brewers at Dodgers Prediction

BREWERS (+170) DODGERS (-200), 10:10 p.m. ET, Total: 9

National League division leaders square off in what might ultimately wind up being an NLDS pairing come October. The Brewers run into the Dodgers while they’re riding a run as the hottest team in MLB, having won 12 of 13 games as they continue their longest homestand of the season. Already 7-0 at home in August, L.A. opens this series on the heels of outscoring Colorado 20-6 in a four-game sweep. Dave Roberts’ team broke out the brooms against the lowly A’s to begin the month, outscoring them 25-6. Milwaukee should be a far more challenging adversary, arriving in Dodgertown on a four-game win streak, which matches its second-longest run of prosperity this season. The Crew leads the NL Central by 3.5 games over the Cubs and Reds entering Tuesday’s action, while L.A. leads the NL West by nine full games over rival San Francisco. These teams met in Wisconsin back in May, with the Brewers winning the series opener 9-3 before being outscored 14-3 in dropping the next two.

L.A. rookie Bobby Miler (6-2, 3.89) was still in the minors when the Dodgers rallied to win that series on the road, debuting in the bigs nearly two weeks later with an impressive win in Atlanta. With Clayton Kershaw back, Lance Lynn on board and Tony Gonsolin and Julio Urias rolling, Miller may find himself coming out of the bullpen when Walker Buehler returns from a second Tommy John surgery in a few weeks. In the meantime, he’ll look to continue impressing in his current role, coming off his fifth quality start in 13 appearances after shutting out Arizona for six innings in a 2-0 win last Wednesday. The performance was Miller’s best outing since he opened his career by allowing two runs over his first four starts, owning an 0.78 ERA through his first 23 big league innings. Carlos Santana (1-for-3) and Mark Canha (0-for-1), both acquired prior to the trade deadline, are the only Brewers who have faced Miller. Adrian Houser (4-3, 4.38) is the Brewers’ fifth starters and will also have to pitch well to hold on to his spot when Julio Teheran is ready to return from his hip injury later this month. Houser has had his moments this season and also has five quality starts, though he’s made one more start than Miller. Current Dodgers are 10-for-39 (.256) against Houser, with Jason Heyward (4-for-14, .286) owning the most experience against him. Freddie Freeman has homered against Houser, as has Miguel Rojas.

THE PLAY – Dodgers Player Prop Pick  

We’re going back to the Freeman gravy train against Milwaukee’s Howser. Although he’s just 2-for-6 against him in his career, he’s drawn three walks, hasn’t struck out and obviously sees him well. Freeman is in an 0-for-9 slump over his last three games, so you know he’s itching to get back on track. Batting .339 and carrying an OPS of 1.005, Freeman hasn’t slumped much and should break out on Tuesday. He homered in the series finale back in August, victimizing Wade Miley to open the scoring in an eventual 8-1 win. Ride the over on Freeman’s hits + runs + RBI prop.

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