Free MLB Picks Today – Four MLB Games Predictions for 8/16/2023

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The Pulse: Daily MLB Betting Picks for Wednesday, Aug. 16

Astros at Marlins Prediction

ASTROS (-130) at MARLINS (+110), 6:40 p.m. ET, Total: 7.5-8

The Marlins took down Astros ace Framber Valdez in the series opener and had a would-be playoff starter in Cristian Javier down 3-0 early on Tuesday, so they’re responding to the pressure of an unlikely playoff chase. Unfortunately for Miami, the long ball got the best of it in the end, with Kyle Tucker hitting Houston’s third home run of the night in the seventh and the bullpen holding on to lock down a 6-5 win and even the series. The Fish benefited from the Cubs, Reds and Diamondbacks all losing, so they lost no ground and remain entrenched as the final NL Wild Card entering the final quarter of the season. The defending champion Astros are now one conquest away from becoming the sixth team in MLB to reach the 70-win mark. Houston has won or split every series it has played this month and will be headed back home at the conclusion of this rubber game hoping to have that streak intact. The Astros’ resurgence since late June has come on the road since they’ve won five series and split a pair without losing any over their last seven, a run that’s on the line today.

Justin Verlander (7-6, 3.19 ERA) is 1-1 since being acquired from the Mets, producing a pair of quality starts in giving up five runs in 13 innings. Despite playing in the NL East most of the season, Verlander hasn’t faced the Marlins this season, but did beat them 9-4 in June of 2022, surrendering no earned runs in seven innings. The 40-year-old hasn’t pitched at Loan Depot Park since Opening Day of 2016, which is so long ago that he was still with the Tigers and actually picked up a hit and scored a run in three at-bats. Current Miami hitters are 15-for-72 vs. Verlander (.208). Bryan De La Cruz (1-for-3) has the lone homer, while vets Avisail Garcia (9-for-36) and Joey Wendle (4-for-12) have the most experience against him. Jesus Luzardo (8-7, 3.91) will pitch for the Fish and has struggled mightily of late, allowing 15 runs over the past 13.1 innings, surrendering five homers. Luzardo looks like he’s running out of gas, but will likely catch a break in missing out on Jose Altuve, who has gone 5-for-8 with a home run against the lefty but is considered day-to-day after exiting Tuesday’s game after fouling a ball of his shin. Don’t expect the diminutive eight-time All-Star to play in this series finale.

THE PLAY – Astros at Marlins F5 MoneyLine Bet

Verlander has allowed three or fewer earned runs in 10 consecutive starts, surrendering two or less in nine of those games. He’s reliable early in games, where as Luzardo has really struggled lately. Houston ranks fifth in MLB in OPS against lefties and should handle business to keep its run of series wins intact. Ride the Astros on the first-five money line and take the bullpens out of the equation.

Guardians at Reds Prediction

GUARDIANS (+145) at REDS (-160), 6:40 p.m. ET, Total: 9.5-10

The Reds and Guardians played their first of four crucial matchups over the next six weeks, and Cincinnati goes into Wednesday’s Game 2 still looking for its first run. Both teams have reached mid-August with legitimate postseason aspirations, so the Guardians did well in keeping pace with Minnesota in the AL Central race through a 3-0 win, moving to 13-17 over their last 30 games. The Reds are now 3-10 in August and have scored three or fewer runs in seven of their 13 contests this month. Cincy was shut out for the ninth time this season despite playing in a hitter’s park and badly misses Jake Fraley, who has been out since Aug. 5 with a broken toe.

Cleveland looks for the series sweep and aims to match what would be its second-longest winning streak, albeit just a modest three games, by pulling off another road upset. Noah Syndergaard (2-5, 6.35 ERA) comes off his first win since arriving from the Dodgers, beating the Blue Jays 4-3 last Thursday. “Thor” has now pitched into the sixth inning in all three of his starts since coming on board, giving up just one run in two of those outings. He’s basically pitching to contact and got torched for four home runs by the White Sox in an Aug. 5 loss. Syndergaard’s last game with L.A. this season came on June 7 against the Reds, and he was sent down to the minors after allowing six runs on seven hits in just three innings. Cincy 21-year-old phenom Elly De La Cruz went 2-for-2 and homered in that game, while fellow rookie Matt McLain went 2-for-2 with a triple. Joey Votto has really struggled against Syndergaard, coming in 2-for-18 (.111). Reds rookie lefty Andrew Abbott (7-3, 2.95) surrendered more than three runs in only one of his 10 big league starts, but has come down to earth some, allowing 12 earned runs over his last three outings. Abbott struck out nine Pirates without walking a batter in a 9-2 win last Friday, so he’s looking to get back on track against a lineup that’s never seen him before. Opponents are hitting .163 against Abbott in Cincinnati.

THE PLAY – Reds Player Prop Pick 

De La Cruz went 1-for-4 on Tuesday and has now hit safely in four of the last five games. De La Cruz has a hit in 15 of the past 20 games, homering six times in that span. He’s scored 12 times and has four multi-hit games since July 23 and should step up in this huge home game. Ride Reds SS Elly De La Cruz to top his runs + hits + RBI prop.

Red Sox at Nationals Prediction

RED SOX (-170) at NATIONALS (+145), 7:05 p.m. ET, Total: 8.5

Boston can’t afford to lose games to teams like that Nationals if they’re going to land an AL Wild Card spot, so it was a great sign to see Alex Verdugo kick off a crucial 10-game road trip with a lead-off home run in an eventual 5-4 win against a team that had won 12 of their last 14 home games. With series against the rival Yankees and defending champion Astros on deck, having success in this series is vital. The Red Sox improved to 9-1 at Nationals Park and got great work out of their bullpen to hang on and beat Washington in a game started by their opponents’ lone All-Star, ace Josiah Gray. Talented lefty MacKenzie Gore (6-9, 4.62) takes the mound next for the Nats and is 1-0 with a 1.46 ERA over his last three home starts. He’s been shaky in losing three of his last four decisions on the road, but has helped beat the Brewers and Giants, both currently playoff-bound, in his last two games in D.C. Boston ranks in the middle of the pack in MLB in OPS against lefties and hasn’t shown a lot of pop against them, so it could be vulnerable here and shouldn’t be this heavily favored. Only Pablo Reyes (1-for-2) has a hit against Gore among current Red Sox players, with Justin Turner and Adam Duvall each coming in 0-for-2.

James Paxton (7-3, 3.36) picked up a win last Thursday by pitching 5.1 shutout innings in a 2-0 victory over the Royals, striking out six and walking none while weaving in and out of trouble. The oft-injured lefty who had witched just six games over three seasons for the Yankees and Mariners missed all of 2022, but he’s enjoyed a nice resurgence. Paxton has allowed two or fewer earned runs in nine of his last 12 games and has only had one truly rough outing since May 31. Only one current Nationals player, Michael Chavis (0-for-8, 5 K’s), has ever faced Paxton. The Nationals rank 8th in OPS against left-handed pitching.

THE PLAY – Red Sox at Nationals Full Game Run-Line Bet  

Red Sox at Nationals Full Game Run-Line Bet: Although Boston improved to an impressive 9-1 at Nationals Park thanks to Tuesday’s win, it should have its hands full here. Gore is extremely talented and the Sox utilized five relievers to eat up 4.2 scoreless innings in squeaking by in the series opener, so picking up seventh victory in nine contests will be a challenge. Back the Washington Nationals +1.5 on the full-game run line.

Brewers at Dodgers Prediction

BREWERS (+190) DODGERS (-230), 10:10 p.m. ET, Total: 8.5

The Brewers held a 1-0 lead at Dodgers Stadium into the bottom of the fifth, but got shut down by rookie Bobby Miller, who retired 18 consecutive batters before leaving after completing six frames. L.A. tied it in the fifth and broke things open with a five-run sixth to cruise to a 13th victory in 14 August games. The team has won eight consecutive home games, last losing on July 30, and now gets to ride Clayton Kershaw (10-4, 2.51), who will make his second start since returning from a six-week absence due to shoulder inflammation. The Dodgers haven’t surrendered more than three runs in any of their last six games, so the under is on a 5-1 run in their contests. Kershaw will look to continue his team’s dominant performances on the mound and allowed just one run on three hits over five innings last Thursday in a 2-1 home win over Colorado. The 35-year-old lefty has given up just five earned runs over his last 38 innings, all on homers. He’s 4-0 in that span and will be facing a Milwaukee offense that ranks 23rd among 30 MLB teams in OPS. Current Brewer hitters are 19-for-97 (.196) against Kershaw, although star leadoff hitter Christian Yelich (9-for-29, 2 HRs) has had success in head-to-head meetings.

The Crew saw their four-game win streak come to an end but didn’t see their NL Central lead cut into since the Cubs and Reds both lost to sub-.500 teams. Veteran lefty Wade Miley (6-2, 2.90) suffered through his worst start of the season when the Dodgers came through Milwaukee on May 10, giving up seven runs and three homers over five innings in an 8-1 loss. Since that defeat, he’s been a steady force, surrendering two or fewer earned runs in seven of eight starts. Miley has a 2.90 ERA and a career-best 1.13 WHIP going through his first 15 outings. Current Dodgers hitters are 37-for-142 (.261) vs. the Brewers lefty and rank third in OPS against southpaws, hitting an MLB-best 60 home runs against southpaws. Mookie Betts (9-for-19, .474, 1 HR, 4 doubles) and Freddie Freeman (8-for-23, .348, 2 HRs, 3 doubles) have shined against Miley and make up the top 1-2 punch of all time in terms of OPS at the top of a batting order so far this season, currently eclipsing numbers put up by the Pete Rose/Joe Morgan combo from the 1970 Big Red Machine. Strangely, while Miley is 4-7 in his career vs. L.A., he’s 4-0 with a 2.06 ERA at Dodger Stadium over seven starts.

THE PLAY – Dodgers Player Prop Pick  

Betts has been incredible against Miley and went 2-for-4 with an RBI in Tuesday’s win. He’s had three straight multi-hit games, is hitting .377 this month and has hit safely in 19 of 20 games. Betts has 13 RBI and has scored 13 times in his 13 August contests, homering four times. Books regularly place his hits + runs + RBI prop at 2.5 and he’s eclipsed that number in eight of his last 10. Ride the hot hand. Back the over on Mookie Betts’ hits + runs + RBI prop.

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