UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Costa Picks, Predictions and Odds May 16, 2026

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC Fight Night picks and predictions come from WagerTalk UFC handicapper Andy Lang for May 16, 2026 with the main event headlined by Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa in a featherweight fight. The main card starts up at 8:00pm ET from Meta APEX, Las Vegas, NV.

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Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, May 16	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Arnold Allen -154 vs Melquizael Costa +120
Rounds:	3.5 (Over -106 / Under -120)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 8:00pm ET / 5:00pm PT
Arena:	Meta APEX, Las Vegas, NV
TV:	Paramount+

UFC Fight Night Undercard Predictions

Doo Ho Choi +150 vs Daniel Santos -156 

This is Santos’ third straight fight against a Korean fighter for some reason, but Choi is clearly the best of the group. Choi returned after military service and hasn’t lost in three fights, with two finishes.

He hasn’t fought since December 2024 and is now 35, but he still has timely takedowns  and finishing ability everywhere. Santos feels like he’s been surviving against lesser competition. Choi is the pick. 

Malcolm Wellmaker -257 vs Juan Diaz +245 

Wellmaker got humbled in his first loss against the aggressive Ethyn Ewing. He looked complacent and lacked urgency, which could actually help him here.

Diaz is exciting and dangerous with power, but he’s not an elite prospect and has gone to decision plenty against  average competition. I expect Wellmaker to rebound with more aggression and sharper striking.  Wellmaker is the pick. 

Timmy Cuamba +150 vs Benardo Sopaj -156 

Close fight, I’ll take the dog. Sopaj struggled badly against Ricky Turcios, which is concerning. There’s not much power or offense in his striking.

Cuamba can get hit, but I’m not convinced Sopaj can damage him enough. Cuamba showed improved takedown defense against a grappler last fight and should have success on the feet while possibly mixing in some wrestling. Cuamba is the pick. 

Nikolay Veretennikov -103 vs Khaos Williams -121 

Veretennikov makes constant mistakes. He gets taken down too easily, and I thought he lost his last fight. His striking isn’t impressive and it’s hard to identify what he actually does well.

Khaos has looked terrible recently too, getting submitted and then taking a brutal beating from  Gustafsson. His last win came against a weak Carlston Harris.

This is a fight between two struggling fighters — best bet is fight goes the distance. Slight lean to Khaos because Veretennikov is too mistake-prone. 

Tuco Tokkos +163 vs Ivan Erslan -170 

Neither fighter looks UFC caliber. Both have major flaws. Erslan’s striking is slightly better, and even though he lost his last fight through wrestling, Tokkos isn’t a strong wrestler either.

Tokkos only won his last fight because his opponent completely gassed. Erslan is the pick, but this fight isn’t worth betting. 

Thomas Grantt -265 vs Artur Minev +200 

Minev is stepping in on short notice and does have decent striking and speed, but Grantt is on another level.

Training with Daniel Cormier is a major plus, and Grantt showed improved wrestling and takedowns on Contender Series. He should dominate this matchup. Grantt is the pick. 

Ketlen Vieira +156 vs Jacqueline Cavalcanti -163 

Vieira is the pick. She’s fought significantly better competition and held her own against names like Dumont, Harrison, and Pennington.

She’s physically strong and may actually be faster than Cavalcanti on the feet. She nearly beat Dumont in her last fight and would likely be facing a much bigger opponent if she had gotten that decision. Cavalcanti isn’t very aggressive or high volume. Clear dog or pass situation. 

Andre Petroski -194 vs Cody Brundage +186 

Both fighters desperately need a win, especially Brundage. He’s lost three straight and could arguably have seven straight losses without weird disqualifications and no contests.

He doesn’t wrestle much anymore, his striking defense is poor, and he tends to quit when facing adversity. 

Petroski is a slow-paced grinder who succeeds against weak takedown defense, but his cardio  and offense are major concerns. This should be ugly and boring. Fight goes the distance is the best play. Brundage or nothing at the current price. 

Alice Ardelean -194 vs Polyana Viana +186 

I never thought Ardelean would win in the UFC, but she’s improved and now has two straight wins. Her striking isn’t pretty, but she pressures forward and has learned how to steal rounds late.

Viana looks completely washed — she’s been finished in three straight and offers very little offense anymore. Ardelean should outwork her and possibly get a finish. 

Daniel Barez -100 vs Luis Gurule -104 

Gurule has no upside at the UFC level. He fades after the first round and no longer has the power or wrestling to compensate.

Barez isn’t amazing either, but he’s fought tougher competition and already has a UFC win. If he survives the first round, he should grind out rounds two and three  for a decision. Fight goes the distance is the play. 

Shauna Bannon +203 vs Nicolle Caliari -213 

Caliari has questionable striking defense and cardio, but her wrestling advantage is obvious here.  Bannon cannot stop takedowns and was submitted last fight after being controlled on the mat.  Straightforward matchup — Caliari gets takedowns and wins the fight.

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Arnold Allen -154 vs Melquizael Costa +120

Tough fight — I like both guys, but I lean Costa at plus money. Both can strike, but Costa throws the bigger shots and creates more dynamic moments.

He has two straight KO wins, while Allen  has only one finish since 2018, and that came after his opponent injured his leg and retired.

Allen has lost 3 of his last 4 against top competition, and his only recent win came against an aging  kickboxer. Costa can also grapple and submit, giving him more paths to victory.

Five-round cardio is the concern, but Costa is the pick because of his explosiveness and ability to sway  judges with bigger moments.

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