UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs Vallejos Picks, Predictions and Odds March 14, 2026

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC Fight Night picks and predictions come from WagerTalk UFC handicapper Andy Lang for March 14, 2026 with the main event headlined by Josh Emmett vs Kevin Vallejos in a featherweight fight. The main card starts up at 8:00pm ET from the Meta APEX in Las Vegas, NV.

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Josh Emmett vs Kevin Vallejos: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, March 14	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Josh Emmett +410 vs Kevin Vallejos -550
Rounds:	4.5 (Over -180 / Under +140)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 10:00pm ET / 7:00pm PT
Arena:	Meta APEX in Las Vegas, NV
TV:	Paramount+

UFC Fight Night Undercard Predictions

Piera Rodriguez -162 vs Sam Hughes +126

Rodriguez is very strong and her only losses are to Gillian Robertson and a disqualification. Her ground game is solid and her striking is good, but her biggest advantage will be pure strength and power in close exchanges.

Hughes is tough and durable, and she can clinch and work some grappling, but she looks a bit overmatched physically. This fight should feature plenty of clinch work and wrestling. Rodriguez by decision.

Elijah Smith -225 vs Suyoung You +170

Smith is still raw, but he grew up in the gym with his father being a fighter and he continues to evolve. He has a solid ground game, showed good cardio a couple fights ago, and his striking keeps improving even if it’s not elite yet.

Smith will likely keep getting better with experience, but he’s not a top-tier UFC fighter just yet. You has looked basic and fairly low-output so far.

His fights tend to go the distance, his takedown attempts are often just feints, and he lacks aggression. Smith should be able to control the fight over three rounds.

Bia Mesquita -590 vs Montserrat Rendon +390

This matchup looks straightforward. Rendon is 7-1 but the level of competition has been extremely weak. Her striking doesn’t threaten opponents and she has shown little finishing ability with every fight going to decision.

Mesquita is physically strong with excellent takedowns and an elite ground game. She should get Rendon to the mat and finish with either submission or ground-and-pound. Mesquita by finish.

Hecher Sosa -245 vs Luan Lacerda +186

Sosa trains with Topuria and has a strong grappling base. He’s experienced, disciplined, and appears to have excellent fight IQ and preparation.

Lacerda is coming off a win over Oliveira, but Oliveira isn’t a strong opponent and Lacerda was reversed several times during that fight.

He lost his two fights prior to that, and while many of his wins come by submission, Sosa has good defensive grappling. Sosa by decision.

Manoel Sousa -280 v Bolaji Oki +210

Sousa is another Contender Series winner who should find success in the UFC. His striking is sharp and his cardio is excellent, though his ground game can be an issue when opponents control him.

Oki has been disappointing so far with two close wins against weaker opponents and two losses by finish. He constantly makes mistakes and exhausted himself chasing a finish in his last fight before getting stopped. I don’t think he can exploit Sousa’s weaknesses. Sousa likely wins by finish.

Myktybek Orolbai -290 vs Chris Curtis +215

I’m out on Chris Curtis at this point. His last two wins were split decisions and he’s lost three of his last five fights along with a no contest against Imavov in a fight he was losing.

His ground game is limited and his striking doesn’t seem to carry knockout power anymore. Orolbai is a powerful brawler who can finish fights in multiple ways. He absorbs strikes to deliver bigger

ones and I expect him to walk through Curtis’s shots and land the harder blows. Curtis has taken a lot of damage across 44 professional fights, so a knockout wouldn’t be surprising. Orolbai is the pick.

Brad Tavares -140 vs Eryk Anders +110

Neither fighter is particularly exciting at this stage of their careers. Both are low-volume strikers, lacking explosion, and both are coming off knockout losses.

I expect a slow fight with Tavares circling on the outside while Anders pressures forward and tries to initiate clinch exchanges.

Anders tends to tire as the fight progresses. The best play will likely be Tavares by decision at plus money when props open.

Charles Johnson -215 vs Bruno Silva +164

Johnson is coming off a knockout loss in January and is turning around quickly, which makes me hesitant to back him as a favorite.

He was also absorbing damage before scoring the flash KO over Kavanagh. Silva’s recent losses came against a champion and a top contender, and he still has solid striking if he manages his cardio.

Johnson has been open defensively in his last two fights. The quick turnaround concerns me, so I’ll take Silva and even consider the KO prop.

Vitor Petrino -230 vs Steven Asplund +176

Petrino has looked good since moving up to heavyweight, showing strong striking and wrestling. His cardio has looked questionable at times but he still managed a third-round knockout in his last fight.

Asplund is a powerful striker who lands damaging shots, though this is his toughest opponent yet and he’s fairly hittable.

Both fighters are likely to absorb big strikes. The under 1.5 rounds at plus money is interesting, but the better play might be under 2.5 rounds later in the week.

Marwan Rahiki -265 vs Harry Hardwick +200

Rahiki is tall and flashy with spinning attacks but has terrible defensive striking and gets hit frequently. His fights rarely last long because of his aggressive style.

Hardwick lost his UFC debut on short notice due largely to calf kicks, but Rahiki doesn’t use that weapon much. Hardwick has solid power and plenty of experience at age 31.

This fight likely ends early and the under is attractive, but I’ll side with the underdog. Rahiki makes too many mistakes and Hardwick should capitalize.

Jose Delgado -330 vs Andre Fili +240

Delgado has serious power but showed some weaknesses after failing to finish Nathaniel Wood early in their fight. Wood recovered and won the final two rounds for the decision.

Delgado didn’t fade badly but his defense slipped as the fight progressed. Fili hasn’t looked impressive recently, with three of his last four wins being razor-thin split decisions.

His striking lacks impact and he doesn’t have the wrestling to control Delgado. Fili’s mistakes should eventually cost him here. Delgado by KO or decision.

Oumar Sy -230 vs Ion Cutelaba +176

Cutelaba is usually strongest on the ground where he hunts submissions, but Sy is extremely strong in the clinch and in wrestling exchanges. In his last fight, Cutelaba showed more striking than usual and had success landing kicks.

Sy is powerful on the ground but Cutelaba has the ability to reverse positions and threaten submissions. With multiple paths to victory, Cutelaba looks like the value side.

Gillian Robertson -200 vs Amanda Lemos +154

Robertson’s wrestling has evolved from good to elite and she’s currently on a four-fight winning streak. Lemos is a dangerous striker and fairly strong defensively in the clinch, but she struggled badly against Tatiana Suarez who controlled her easily for long stretches.

Robertson has the same type of grappling advantage but with far better cardio. Lemos has lost two straight to strong wrestlers. Robertson should make it five wins in a row.

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Josh Emmett vs Kevin Vallejos

Emmett is 1-4 in his last five fights but those losses came against elite competition. Vallejos is very good, though not quite elite yet. His youth, speed, and power should create problems for Emmett.

Vallejos lost the first round to Giga before scoring a knockout, showing he can explode late with power that older fighters struggle to react to.

Emmett doesn’t offer much grappling and his knockout power hasn’t shown up lately with only one KO in his last eight fights.

The main concern is this being scheduled for five rounds. If Vallejos doesn’t get an early finish, his stamina could be tested. Because of that, I prefer the over 3.5 rounds.

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