UFC 326: Holloway vs Oliveira Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds March 7

UFC 326 Picks, Predictions and Odds

UFC 326 picks and predictions for March 7 by UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang are available below with the main event headlined by Max Holloway vs Charles Oliveira in a light heavyweight fight! The main card starts up at 9:00pm ET from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV.

Max Holloway vs Charles Oliveira: UFC 326 Main Event

Saturday, March 7	UFC 326 Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Max Holloway vs Charles Oliveira
Rounds:	2.5 Rounds (Over -175 / Under +135)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 9:00pm ET / 6:00pm PT
Arena:	T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV
TV:	Paramount+

UFC 326 Predictions: Undercard

Luke Fernandez -235 vs Rodolfo Bellato +180 

Fernandez is a solid prospect who hits hard and has multiple grappling wins, so he’s dangerous  everywhere.

His Contender Series opponent was one of the worst fighters you’ll see, so that  performance shouldn’t be overvalued, but Fernandez still looks like a complete, UFC-ready fighter.

Bellato has some power but gets hit and dropped in almost every fight. His durability and cardio are questionable, and he’s struggled against fighters I rate lower than Fernandez.  Fernandez should get the win.

Jeongyeong Lee -290 vs Gaston Bolanos +215 

Bolanos is not very good and doesn’t have the tools to exploit Lee’s biggest weakness, which is  takedown defense.

Lee was winning against Santos in his last fight until Santos took him down and controlled rounds two and three.

Lee can strike well though, and this likely stays on the feet. Bolanos also got dominated on the ground by Quang Le in his last fight. If this turns into a  striking match, Lee is clearly better and should win.

Rafael Tobias -225 vs Diyar Nurgozhay +172 

Tobias already has 15 pro fights at just 22 years old and is still improving. His striking is good and he has solid ground skills, though he’s a bit slow and plodding with limited head movement. 

Nurgozhay has lost both UFC fights to weak competition, his durability looks questionable, and he was submitted in his last fight.

He came into the UFC undefeated but hasn’t shown the upside needed to exploit Tobias’s youth and lack of speed. It should be competitive, but Tobias is the pick.

Sumudairji -265 vs Jesus Aguilar +200 

Aguilar is undersized and doesn’t have much reach, but he’s incredibly tough. He marches forward constantly and has a nasty guillotine.

Despite being a frequent underdog, he’s 4-2 in the UFC with one loss coming against Tatsuro Taira. Sumudairji has won two in a row, but those wins haven’t aged well and he has a history of major injuries. I’ll take the plus-money dog here because Aguilar fights hard for every minute.

Tumendemberel -156 vs Cody Durden +122 

Durden is 1-5 in his last six UFC fights. His striking is decent early but he fades badly after the first round. Once he slows down he tends to get taken down and eventually submitted. The only real question is whether Tumendemberel can maintain his cardio into the second round.

If he  can, he probably finishes Durden. Based on previous fights showing he can last longer than  Durden, Tumendemberel is the pick.

Alberto Montes -205 vs Ricky Turcios +158 

Montes hasn’t fought since his 2024 Contender Series win due to cancelled bouts, but this is a  good spot for him. He’s a submission specialist with dangerous chokes, and his boxing is serviceable enough to set things up.

His defensive wrestling can be an issue, but not against Turcios. Montes lost once after dropping his hands and getting caught, but since then he’s won 

three straight by submission. Turcios hasn’t fought much since 2022, has awful ground defense, and lacks knockout power. Montes should win.

Donte Johnson -620 vs Cody Brundage +400 

Johnson has undergone a remarkable physical transformation, dropping from heavyweight to weighing 184 pounds.

He has always had power, but in his last fight he showed wrestling and even secured a choke submission.

Brundage is likely on borrowed time in the UFC after two straight losses and a recent knockout defeat. His striking is poor and his ground game hasn’t  improved. Johnson by finish is the best way to play this fight.

Long Xiao -148 vs Cody Garbrandt +116 

Neither fighter inspires confidence, so I’ll take the underdog. Xiao has fought mostly Asian competition through Road to UFC and the UFC. Despite 37 fights at age 27, there’s a lot of wear  and tear.

In his UFC win he was getting pieced up before landing a late overhand right. Garbrandt has lost two straight due to wrestling, but Xiao doesn’t wrestle.

Cody’s controlled striking and counter ability should allow him to accumulate damage and neutralize Xiao’s power. Garbrandt is the pick.

Gregory Rodrigues -210 vs Brunno Ferreira +162 

This is a rematch after Ferreira knocked Rodrigues out with a brutal counter. Ferreira has had some nice submission wins but hasn’t consistently faced fighters capable of finishing him. Rodrigues’s biggest issue is cardio—he’s dangerous early but fades late.

He has strong striking and can wrestle when needed. If he manages his energy and avoids the big counter shot this time, Rodrigues should win.

Michael Johnson -125 vs Drew Dober -105 

Dober absorbs a tremendous amount of damage. In his last fight he was badly beaten by Propolec  before landing an illegal low blow that changed the fight and eventually led to a knockout win. His cardio is also questionable and he had lost three straight before that.

Johnson has won three in a row and has been durable, suffering only one KO loss in the last five years. Johnson should be able to land enough volume to damage Dober and steal rounds.

Raul Rosas Jr -230 vs Rob Font +276 

Font managed to defend takedowns in his last fight, but before that he gave up 22 takedowns across four fights.

Rosas has excellent takedowns and a dangerous body triangle that leads to submissions. Font is clearly the better boxer, so Rosas must rely on wrestling.

If Rosas sticks to his grappling he should control the fight. As long as he doesn’t get drawn into a striking battle, Rosas is the pick.

Caio Borralho -290 vs Reinier de Ridder +215 

I’m not laying this price on Borralho. He built his career on wrestling and grappling, but in his  last two fights he has leaned heavily on striking.

That worked against Cannonier, but against elite competition like Imavov his striking looked exposed. De Ridder looked terrible in his last fight,  but he later revealed he was dealing with norovirus.

Before that he had five straight wins including a five-round victory over Whittaker. If healthy, de Ridder has the tools to compete on the feet and his knees up the middle could be dangerous. At this price, de Ridder is the play.

UFC 326 Main Event: Max Holloway -230 vs Charles Oliveira +175

Oliveira looked great against Gamrot in his last fight but was knocked out by Ilia Topuria before that. Holloway was also knocked out by Topuria, though he lasted longer.

Oliveira will struggle on the feet if this fight stays there for long stretches, but he’s not the type of wrestler who can easily force the fight to the ground.

Holloway’s boxing volume and durability should take over as the fight progresses. Holloway by decision or late KO.

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