UFC Mexico: Moreno vs Kavanagh Picks, Predictions and Odds February 28, 2026
UFC Mexico Betting Preview
UFC Mexico picks and predictions come from WagerTalk UFC handicapper Andy Lang for February 28, 2026 with the main event headlined by Brandon Moreno vs Lone’er Kavanagh in a flyweight fight. The main card starts up at 8:00pm ET from Arena CDMX in Mexico City, Mexico.
Are you subscribed to WagerTalk TV? If not, what are you waiting for?! Set up alerts so that you never miss an episode of your favorite shows. Drop the gloves with the Puck Time crew and swing for the fences on First Pitch. From betting tips to free picks, WagerTalk TV is your one-stop shop for streaming sports betting content.
WagerTalk also offers Free UFC Picks all year long!
Brandon Moreno vs Lone’er Kavanagh: UFC Mexico Main Event
| Saturday, February 28 | UFC Mexico Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars) |
|---|---|
| Moneyline: | Brandon Moreno -225 vs Lone’er Kavanagh +172 |
| Rounds: | 4.5 (Over -140 / Under +110) |
| Fight Time: | Main Card Starts at 8:00pm ET / 5:00pm PT |
| Arena: | Arena CDMX in Mexico City, Mexico |
| TV: | Paramount+ |
UFC Mexico Undercard Predictions
Damian Pinas -265 vs Wes Schultz +200
Schultz pulled off one of the most impressive submissions on Contender Series, but his striking is very bad. Pinas has only been training for 4–5 years, but he looks extremely natural and fluid.
His striking is sharp, his jab is excellent, and he fights calm and in control. Pinas should damage Schultz before Schultz can get this fight to the ground. Pinas by KO.
Francis Marshall -700 vs Erik Silva +450
Marshall has struggled in the UFC but looked improved in his last fight. Silva is 38, coming off a long layoff due to injury, and needs this fight on the ground.
Marshall still makes mistakes, which makes the price uncomfortable. With so many heavy favorites on this card, they won’t all win. Silva worth a small sprinkle.
Ernesta Kareckaite -280 vs Sofia Montenegro +210
Kareckaite is a long kickboxer with good pressure but limited power. Montenegro is a violent striker with heavy punches but a weak ground game.
This is a tough stylistic matchup for Kareckaite. Montenegro will walk through jabs to land bigger shots. Montenegro as the underdog.
Javier Reyes -250 vs Douglas Silva de Andrade +190
Reyes is powerful but flawed and just reaching the UFC at 32 with 26 fights. Andrade is 40 but still skilled and durable. Reyes is younger and more athletic. Reyes is the pick but not a bet.
Cristian Quinonez -700 vs Kris Moutinho +500
Moutinho has been finished in all three UFC fights. Quinonez won’t need to worry about submissions here. He’s longer and more skilled. Quinonez by early finish.
Ailin Perez -186 vs Macy Chiasson +144
Perez wins with takedowns and top control but slows late. Chiasson must stop early takedowns to win. If she can’t, Perez controls and wins a decision.
Ryan Gandra -670 vs Jose Medina +430
Medina shouldn’t be at this level. Gandra is powerful and patient. Most confident big favorite on the card. Gandra by KO.
Santiago Luna -620 vs Angel Pacheco +400
Pacheco hasn’t fought in two years and was outstruck badly in his last outing. Luna impressed in his debut with a first-round KO. Luna by finish.
Imanol Rodriguez -430 vs Kevin Borjas +300
Rodriguez trains with Daniel Cormier and has strong striking and movement. Borjas has shown little upside in the UFC. Rodriguez is the pick.
Edgar Chairez -320 vs Felipe Bunes +235
Chairez has faced elite competition and nearly finished current champion Josh Van. Bunes is slower and weaker in close. Chairez is the pick.
Daniel Zellhuber -520 vs King Green +350
Zellhuber is long and dangerous at range. Green is aging and vulnerable on the ground. Zellhuber should win, but price is too high. Fight to go the distance has value.
David Martinez -295 vs Marlon Vera +220
Vera’s volume and explosiveness have declined. Martinez is younger, faster, and improving. Martinez will have bigger moments. Easy pick.
UFC Mexico Main Event: Brandon Moreno vs Lone’er Kavanagh
Moreno has championship experience and awkward striking. Kavanagh is stepping in short notice. Over five rounds, Moreno’s experience should prevail. Moreno is the pick.
**************************************************
Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?
- Latest Betting Odds and Public Action: Vegas lines updated in real time, including who the public is betting on.
- Last Minute Handicapping Advice: Check out our extensive library of handicapping tips and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our sports betting tips video library)
- Want an expert opinion? Check out the latest Free Sports Picks and Best Bets from our team of expert sports handicappers.
Make sure to bookmark all the above!
