Bryan Power

THE PLAY: Boston Red Sox -105 T Houck (RHP), T Bradley (RHP) Must Start

Since the start of last season, the Red Sox are just 3-14 vs. the Rays and they dropped three of four to their AL East rivals last week at Fenway. You go back even further and the head to head record is just 10-26 L36 including 2-15 here at Tropicana Field.

However, I can't take my eye off the run differential column in the standings. Boston is +28 while Tampa Bay is -29. Based off that, it's the Red Sox that should be coming into this series with the better overall WL record. But they are instead 1.5 games back of TB for third place, largely owed to last week's head to head results. 

In terms of scoring margin, the Red Sox have actually been slightly better on the road this season. Meanwhile, the Rays are being outscored even here at home. For tonight's series opener, we've got a starting pitching rematch from last Wednesday with Houck for Boston and Bradley for TB. The difference in Bradley and the Rays emerging victorious last week (4-3) were two unearned runs allowed by Houck, who has a 1.02 WHIP and .219 batting average allowed. Tampa Bay's lineup strikes out a lot (7th highest rate), so Houck (8.84 K's per 9 innings) should have success and the Red Sox bullpen is better. Just think they're due for a win over the Rays.