College Football Conference Championship Game Betting Preview and Odds

College Football Betting Preview For Conference Championships

Before You Read the College Football Preview… Get $15 FREE towards all expert picks – including CFB Picks

Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers his college football conference championship game betting previews kicking off on Friday! What are his takeaways from a betting perspective? Read below now!

You get free college football picks from WagerTalk all season long!

College Football Championship Game Betting Previews

Pac 12 Championship: Washington vs Oregon (Friday)

What’s at Stake: The winner has an exceptional shot at making the four-team playoff.

First Impressions: On October 14th, Washington defeated Oregon 36-33 thanks to a curious decision Dan Lanning made near the end of that game. It’s been known for weeks that this rematch would likely take place.

Two Thoughts: 1st, what a way for the PAC 12 to end. Oregon is perhaps the hottest team in football right now, with exceptional run-pass balance. 2nd, look for Washington to play the “disrespected” card this weekend.

They are 12-0, yet a big underdog. Michael Penix has been excellent in 2023 but was held in check the last two weeks. He’ll need to be at his very best this Friday night.

Conference USA Championship: New Mexico State vs Liberty (Friday)

What’s at Stake: Both teams were recently independents. To become a conference champion would be an exceptional accomplishment. Liberty could have extra motivation, as a win could give them a group of six invitation.

First Impressions: On September 9th, Liberty hosted and beat New Mexico State 33-17. Liberty is 12-0, with New Mexico State 10-3.

Both coaches are very new to their respective schools, but have excellent resumes and are highly regarded. It’s a home game for Liberty, but Jerry Kill is a fighter, and should have New Mexico State ready to go.

Big 12 Championship: Oklahoma State vs Texas

What’s at Stake: Oklahoma State was down 24-6 last week, but kept fighting and won in overtime, denying rival Oklahoma this playoff berth. Texas has only a last second loss on their resume. They do not control their own final four destiny but a convincing win could be all that’s needed to get to the final four if things break their way.

First Impressions: These teams did not play each other in 2023, but did so in 2022, where the Cowboys, obviously motivated by the news that Texas (and Oklahoma) were leaving for the SEC, upset the Longhorns 41-34. They also beat Texas at their place in 2021.

Oklahoma State experimented with various QB and RB combinations in games 1-3, and found gold with QB Bowman and especially with RB Gordon. Texas has a potential 1st round QB in Quinn Ewers and by far the better defense. Slowing down Texas and their offense has to be priority #1 for Oklahoma State.

MAC Championship: Miami (OH) vs Toledo

What’s at Stake: Toledo is out to defend their MAC title, while Miami (OH) is 0-2 lifetime in this title game.

First Impressions: On October 21st, Toledo went to Miami and came away with a 21-17 victory. They were a small favorite in that game despite it being their third in a row on the road.

NOTE: Jason Candle (Toledo’s head Coach) is likely going to receive some buzz to fill job openings during this latest coaching carousal. I suspect any serious talk will commence after this game, but listen to the chatter, just in case.

Mountain West Championship: Boise State vs UNLV

What’s at Stake: Neither team has a shot to be the group of five representative, but both have some internal motivation. Boise recently fired its coach but have not lost since.

UNLV hired Barry Odom this season and the Rebels are enjoying their best season in quite some time. A loss last week should not have any effect on their motivation.

First Impressions: These teams did not meet in 2023. UNLV is the home team, where they just lost to San Jose State. My initial stat sheet analysis for these teams shows no edges.

Two additional notes: 1st, four computer systems determined who would play in this game and who would be the home team. San Jose State was the odd team out, which seems rather awkward. 2nd, with so many marquee games on tap this Saturday, how will attendance be for this game? I’m curious to see if UNLV gets any home crowd edge.

American Athletic Conference Championship: SMU vs Tulane

What’s at Stake: SMU is 10-2, losing only to Oklahoma and TCU. Tulane is 11-1, with a multitude of close calls, but just the one loss to Mississippi. Tulane is still in the mix to represent the group of five schools should all go right.

First Impressions: These teams did not meet in 2023. Tulane won 59-24 in 2022, breaking a seven-game losing streak.

There’s a cloud hanging over this game, as SMU’s QB was hurt last week and there’s very little experience behind him. Preston Stone was a modest 60% passing, but was careful with the ball.

Playing at Tulane, turnovers could spike. The line opened Tulane by 3, and is just a bit higher at 3.5 or 4. My first impression was that the line needs to adjust higher, but SMU’s defense has been solid all season long and that defense will be interesting to watch in this game.

SEC Championship: Alabama vs Georgia

What’s at Stake: Plenty! This is not one of Alabama’s best offenses, but the defense has improved, and the kicking game is solid.

They escaped at Auburn, a game I warned people about in this space about a month ago. Could a win here sway voters to put them in the final four, even though other teams with one loss might have better overall resumes?

Georgia has not lost in quite some time, but what if they lose in this game? Is it right to keep them out of the final four if that happens? The 2021 and 2022 National Title teams were clearly better than this edition, but winning is contagious, and beating a defending title holder in any sport is never easy.

First Impressions: Alabama is showing signs of life in the run game, and that is the area where the Bulldogs could be the most vulnerable.

Georgia is not 100% healthy offensively, as WR McConkey and TE Bowers have both missed time, including missing last week’s game. Texas beat Alabama in Alabama earlier this season, 34-24. That should matter.

Sun Belt Championship: Appalachian State vs Troy

What’s at Stake: Mostly just bragging rights, but for Troy, this game is personal. These teams did not play in 2023 but in 2022, Appalachian State won the game on a tipped Hail Mary pass completion for a touchdown as time expired. To their credit, Troy never lost the rest of 2022, and are now 21-2 since that loss.

First Impressions: Troy has an outstanding RB and the much better run defense. Most other areas, such as QB play, sack ratio, etc. are comparable. In this case, I do expect there to be a home crowd edge.

ACC Championship: Louisville vs Florida State

What’s at Stake: It’s been a magical season for both teams, but there’s certainly some question as to if these programs are playing their best football right now. Louisville has allowed 69 points the past two games and lost a “lookahead” game at home to rival Kentucky last week.

FSU is undefeated, but just dropped from 4th to 5th in the college football playoff ratings. How much will the loss of their fine QB (Travis) hurt them in this game, and is his loss impacting their place in the playoff race?

First Impressions: Florida State’s pass defense is better than their run defense, which could be concerning, as Louisville runs about 5.25 yards-per-carry, adjusted for sacks.

Jack Plummer is a fine QB, but can be turnover-prone, especially facing Florida State’s strong pass defense. My early keys are 1) Florida State must slow down Louisville’s rush attack on early downs, and 2) Florida State’s new QB has to find WR Wilson and allow him to stretch the field, which would then open up the run game.

NOTE: I was on board with Washington passing Florida State based on schedule difficulty, but I am also on board with Oregon being higher rated should they win by margin vs. undefeated Washington.  I doubt that the committee would not take a 13-0 team (no precedent for that), but the Seminole’s better win, as at 12-1, I think they miss the final four.

Big Ten Championship: Iowa vs Michigan

What’s at Stake: For Iowa, they would be the giant killer. If Michigan loses as a huge favorite, all their work this fine season would go up in smoke. They have had my top Power Number for the past six weeks, but all that doesn’t matter anymore.

First Impressions: I personally would have Michigan ranked #1, but I’m guessing the Committee may think otherwise if Georgia beats Alabama.

No one expects Iowa’s offense to do much of anything, but I’ll be curious to see what Michigan’s offense looks like vs. a really good Iowa defense.

The comparison would be Penn State. If you remember that one, Michigan ran the ball the entire 2nd half, without a pass attempt. For the game they ran a stout 44-231 on a good Penn State defense, and threw the ball just eight times, completing seven of their eight pass attempts.

Will Michigan show any stress? They have one of the top turnover margins in all of the NCAA and maintaining that edge would be more than enough to hold off Iowa. Iowa’s only hope may be to win the turnover battle in convincing fashion.

NEXT WEEK: A short primer on how to approach the upcoming college bowl season.

Follow me on twitter @ronacesports to be alerted of future articles, and to find my weekly podcasts with @lasvegascris on Tuesday and Jeff Dawson on Friday, where I discuss NCAA content as well as NFL content.

Get GoldSheet for Football Betting Tips All Year and Best Bets Today

The Football GoldSheet newsletter is now available for purchase at WagerTalk! From Week 0, in college football all the way through the Super Bowl, get expert analysis, box score recaps, power ratings and much more from the country’s oldest and most popular sports betting newsletter.

WagerTalk Live Odds Screen College Football

WagerTalk’s live college football odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the run spreads, totals and betting percentages for all college football games.

**************************************************

Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?

• Latest Betting Odds and Public Action: Vegas lines updated in real time, including who the public is betting on.
• Last Minute Handicapping Advice: Check out our extensive library of handicapping tips and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our sports betting tips video library)
• Want an expert opinion? Check out the latest Free Sports Picks and Best Bets from our team of expert sports handicappers.

Make sure to bookmark all the above!