The Open Predictions, Picks and Best Bets - PGA Golf Preview July 16-19

The Open Betting Preview

The Open picks from WagerTalk golf handicapper Andy Lang are available before golfers tee off from Royal Birkdale GC in Southport, England! Andy discusses his predictions, picks, who can trip you up, the course and more surrounding The Open starting July 16!

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The Open	The Open Betting Notes
When:	July 16-19
Where:	Royal Birkdale GC in Southport, England
Defending Champ:	Scottie Scheffler
Current Favorite:	Scottie Scheffler (+700 at DraftKings)
TV:	NBC, USA Network, Peacock

The Open Course: Royal Birkdale GC

The 154th Open Championship returns to Royal Birkdale, one of the fairest and most respected venues in The Open rota. For 2026, the course has undergone its most significant renovation in decades, with a new par-70 layout measuring approximately 7,223 yards.

Several holes have been redesigned, including a new drivable 5th, a shorter but more demanding 7th, a completely reworked 14th, and a brand-new long par-3 15th. New tees, rebuilt bunkers, and reshaped green surrounds have modernized the course while preserving its classic links identity.

Unlike many traditional links courses, Royal Birkdale is known for its relatively flat fairways and straightforward sightlines, rewarding quality golf more than fortunate bounces.

Players still face deep revetted bunkers, thick fescue, firm fairways, and fast greens, but success here comes from precision ball-striking, smart course management, and controlling trajectory in the coastal winds.

The redesigned holes place an even greater emphasis on decision-making, forcing players to carefully weigh risk and reward throughout the round.

Royal Birkdale has consistently produced deserving champions because it rarely favors one style of player over another. Long hitters can take advantage of scoring opportunities, but accuracy and patience remain just as important.

With its updated layout and classic links conditions, expect another demanding Open Championship where avoiding mistakes, navigating the bunkers, and handling the wind will ultimately determine who lifts the Claret Jug.

The Open: Players That Can Trip You Up

Xander Schauffele missing the cut at the Scottish Open is a major red flag heading into The Open. It’s now just one Top 10 finish in his last seven tournaments, and the underlying numbers aren’t much better, ranking 25th in total strokes gained over the last three months.

For a player still being priced near the top of the board, that simply isn’t elite form. Until he starts stringing together consistent results again, I’m staying away.

Ludvig Åberg has reached the point where it feels like something just isn’t right. Whether it’s an injury or simply poor form, the results continue to disappoint—missed cut last week, 55th the week before, and no Top 15 finishes in his last five starts.

His Open Championship record isn’t inspiring either, with a 23rd and a missed cut. Yet the sportsbooks continue to price him like a Top 10 golfer every week. Based on what we’ve seen lately, that’s hard to justify.

Cameron Young is finally seeing his odds come down, but I still think he’s overpriced. He’s posted three straight finishes outside the Top 40, and his Open Championship history includes a missed cut and a 31st in his last two appearances.

Even more concerning, over the last six weeks he ranks outside the Top 75 in total strokes gained, showing how much his overall game has slipped. The talent is there, but the current form simply isn’t. He’s another easy fade this week.

The Open: DraftKings Darlings

Brian Harman ($6,600) always seems to elevate his game when The Open rolls around. He’s made five straight Open Championship cuts, with four Top 20 finishes and a Claret Jug during that stretch.

He also made the cut at the Scottish Open last week with a 36th-place finish and has now made 14 of his last 15 cuts, including all four majors this season. At this salary, you’re getting one of the safest major championship players in the field.

Patrick Reed ($7,000) is exactly the type of player who seems to elevate his game when the stage gets bigger. He missed the cut at the U.S. Open, but outside of that he’s been outstanding in marquee events this season, finishing 12th at The Masters, 10th at the PGA Championship, and 13th last week at the Scottish Open.

He’s also won twice and added a runner-up on the DP World Tour, proving his form is no fluke. Reed has built a career on thriving in difficult conditions and high-pressure tournaments, making him one of the best values on the DFS board at just $7,000.

Russell Henley ($7,700) is built for this style of golf. He’s finished 5th and 10th in the last two Open Championships and posted a respectable 37th the last time this course hosted in 2017.

Henley remains one of the most accurate drivers in the field, and both his approach play and putting have been elite throughout the season. With precision at a premium this week, he profiles as one of the strongest DFS plays in this price range.

Rest Of Lineup: Alex Fitzpatrick $7400, Matthew Fitzpatrick $10,000, Tommy Fleetwood $10,500

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