UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs Figueiredo Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds May 3

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night picks and predictions for May 3 with the main event headlined by Cory Sandhagen vs Deiveson Figueiredo in a bantamweight fight. The main card starts up at 10:00pm ET from Wells Fargo Arena in Des Moines, IA.

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Cory Sandhagen vs Deiveson Figueiredo: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, May 3	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Cory Sandhagen vs Deiveson Figueiredo
Rounds:	4.5 (Over -235 / Under +180)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 10:00pm ET / 7:00pm PT
Arena:	Wells Fargo Arena in Des Moines, IA
TV:	ESPN2

UFC Fight Night Predictions

Ivana Petrovic -250 vs Juliana Miller +205 

Juliana Miller is really bad, and it’s still amazing that she won The Ultimate Fighter, and with all due respect, I think it just shows how bad the competition was on that season. 

After beating Brogan Walker, she’s lost to Veronica Hardy and Luana Santos, and she was dominated in both. H

er striking is terrible, her striking defense is bad, and her  wrestling and grappling is very basic. Petrovic isn’t amazing, but she’s just better everywhere. She should be able to out wrestle and grapple Miller, especially after the first round when Miller gasses.

Petrovic will be stronger when they engage in close, and with Miller’s bad striking, Petrovic won’t have any worry about closing the distance, and landing her own strikes that will set up the takedowns. Petrovic is an easy pick for me.

Thomas Petersen -250 vs Don’tale Mayes +205 

This is such a bad fight, I wouldn’t recommend betting anything on it. Mayes is 33 years old, but fights like he’s 53. He’s slow, striking isn’t very good, doesn’t throw a lot of strikes, and isn’t good on the ground.

Petersen made it to UFC by winning on Contender Series against an absolute tomato can, and he just doesn’t look UFC ready  as I think he looks like he’s gotten worse over his 3 fights.

We cashed big against him last fight when he got beat easily by Gaziev, and I noticed something that doesn’t look right about his face as it looks different from when he was on CS. Not sure what’s going  on, but he just doesn’t look right. I can’t bet on either of these guys, this is a pass.

Gaston Bolanos -162 vs Quang Le +136 

Neither of these guys excite me, but I’ll lean Bolanos as there’s a chance he gets the wrestling going, and makes this look easy on the ground over Le.

Le doesn’t want to be on the ground, he would like it to be on the feet, but even in a striking match I don’t think  he’s that great.

He doesn’t throw kicks, his strikes aren’t creative, and he got knocked out in the third in his last fight. His striking probably is a bit better than Bolanos, but not  by much. Look for Bolanos to get this on the ground and grind out a win.

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Gillian Robertson -290 vs Marina Rodriguez +235 

Tough last 2 fights for Rodriguez as she’s lost both by split decision, but what’s worrying  for her, and why this line is so wide is that Lucindo easily took Rodriguez down and controlled her, and that’s what Robertson loves to do.

My concern with Gillian is that  her level of competition hasn’t been great, and the last time she fought a fighter that I  would consider a big time UFC fighter, she lost to Tabatha Ricci.

Rodriguez is going to  be the better striker, but I would think it would only be a matter of time before Gillian gets the takedown and does good work on the ground with strikes and submission attempts. Robertson is the pick here, but at -290 it’s way too wide so I’ll pass on betting it.

Azamat Bekoev -320 vs Ryan Loder +250

Two fighters that like to fight on the ground here so it will be interesting to see who  implements their game play the best, and I think Loder has a great chance to pull the upset.

Bekoev got the single leg takedown on Reese in his UFC debut and ground and pounded him unconcious, but I just don’t think he can do that to Loder fought Valentin in TUF finals, and Loder completely dominated with the takedowns and ground game over a tough opponent, and I loved his approach of not messing around and just getting the takedowns right as the round started.

Bekoev had 21 pro fights before making his UFC  debut, and I’m always worried about that, like…if you’re that good, you would’ve been in  the UFC a while ago. Bekoev is a better striker, but Loder isn’t going to mess around on the feet for long, I love him at a +250 dog.

Miesha Tate -120 vs Yana Santos +100 

Very strange fight here as I had completely forgotten about Meisha Tate. Tate is going to want to take Santos down and lay on her for the entire fight, and if she does that  she’ll cruise.

Santos will want this on the feet, and if she can keep it on the feet she will  probably cruise as her striking is much better.

Santos beat Chandler by decision in her  last fight, but after what we saw from Chandler in her last fight, that’s not a great win. 

Ever so slight lean to Santos in this one as I think she can stuff a few takedowns and land some decent strikes on the feet to get the decision win, but it’s not a strong  opinion. This fight should be a great live betting opportunity.

Mason Jones -575 vs Jeremy Stephens +425 

Two fighters returning to the UFC, and I get why Jones is the favorite, but being this big of a favorite is surprising.

He’s younger by 8 years, he’s on a nice winning streak, he  should be faster and more athletic, but I don’t know how I rate winning some Cage Warrior fights, especially when I watched him get punched and taken down briefly in his  last fight against Pagani.

The case for Stephens is that he’s been on steroids for a  couple years while at bare knuckle, he’s got one shot KO power, and he must be taking  this fight because he believes he can beat Jones.

I just think Stephens is too old, and he’s won 1 MMA fight since 2018. Jones is the pick, but you can’t lay -575 on him as Stephens is always capable of landing a big shot that can change the fight.

Serhiy Sidey -155 vs Cameron Smotherman +130 

I haven’t been high on Smotherman, but I was impressed with him against Hadley in his last fight as I saw big improvements.

His striking was better, he was agressive and  moving forward, he showed good takedown defense and get ups, and he was in control  from start to finish. If he fights like that, he’ll win, and I’ll pick him as the underdog here. 

Sidey isn’t anything special, he doesn’t throw good volume, and he’s gone to split  decision in both UFC fights winning one and losing the other.

I thought he looked bad against Armfield as Armfield took him down a couple of times, Sidey didn’t throw enough volume in my opinion, and he was lucky to win. I think Smotherman will be confident from the beginning, he’ll control the action and win with his striking.

Montel Jackson -205 vs Daniel Marcos +170

Jackson has won his last 2 fights so quick, he’s had less than 4 minutes of fight time in 2.5 years, and his power has certainly been on display in those fights, but we haven’t got to see what he can do in 3 rounds against a great fighter, and I think Marcos is really good.

He’s 17-0 so I’m not going out on a limb, but I like his striking, durabiliity and the  way he can control the pace and flow of the fight.

He has good leg kicks, and I thought  his last fight against Yanez was a great test for him as Yanez has lightning quick strikes on the feet, and Marcos was able to get the better of him.

I just have too many questions about Jackson if he doesn’t get the early KO so I’ll take Marcos to win at  +170.

Daniel Rodriguez -125 vs Santiago Ponzinibbio +105 

I’m not making accusations here, but I’ll just say that Ponzinibbio is 38 years old, and  he’s had big cardio issues in the past, and then all of sudden he looked more ripped, and he had plenty of energy at the end of the fight against Harris where he got the 3rd  round KO…but I’m sure it was just him working hard in the gym.

If that version of Ponz  shows up, he’ll beat D-Rod who I think is almost a shot fighter. He’s 38 as well, and he just barely beat Alex Morono who absolutely was a shot fighter.

He just doesn’t have the power or stamina anymore, and while he’ll have success on the feet in round 1, I  think Ponz, on his new diet and work regimine, will pull away in the 2nd and 3rd. Ponz at this price is a solid bet.

Bo Nickal -305 vs Reinier de Ridder +245 

Ridder has submitted both his UFC opponents, but he struggled early against  Meerschaert before getting the last sub, and Kevin Holland pulled his no-show act in a  joke of a performance so I haven’t been super impressed with him.

We know about Nickal’s wrestling, but last fight against Paul Craig he stood and traded strikes for 3  rounds so I don’t know what his plan is going to be.

If Ridder tries to shoot on Nickal, Bo will immediately snap into wrestling mode, and I don’t see Ridder getting him down  to get his submission game working.

On the feet, I think it’s just two guys who aren’t  good strikers, so I wonder if we see Nickal get back to his wrestling ways in this one. Ridder is a great submission fighter, but his wrestling isn’t on Nickal’s level.

I just can’t bet on Nickal at this price because if he tries to just strike again, he’s not going to look  like a -305 fighter, it will look like an even fight. No bets for me pre-fight, I’ll wait for live  lines so I can see what Nickal’s strategy is.

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Cory Sandhagen vs Deiveson Figueiredo

I’m a big Sandhagen fan, and he gave Umar all he could handle in the last fight, and he  was the better striker in that fight, but the wrestling of Umar was just too much.

On the  feet, Cory is going to be longer, and he’ll have more success with the striking as he can  strike at range, and Fig will have to get inside the jabs and kicks, easier said than done.  

Fig is too low volume to damage up Sandhagen so I think he’ll eventually try and  wrestle, but I just don’t think he’s fast enough at this point in his career to get  Sandhagen down, hold him there, and do damage.

In Fig’s last fight against Petr Yan, you could see Yan pull away the later the fight went on, and I see the same thing happening here. Sandhagen is a fine parlay piece.

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