Bryan Power

THE PLAY: 2-Team Parlay: Florida State ML + Utah ML (-168)

3% ML Parlay - Florida State (7:30 ET) and Utah (10:15 ET): Typically, a ML parlay this “juicy” does not make the card. But I am extremely confident that both of these teams will win on Saturday. 

From a sheer power ratings perspective, Florida State looks like one of the best values on the board this week. My numbers say this spread should be much higher. Now, given the current state of the program (QB Castellanos banged up, HC Norvell on the hot seat), I am not interested in laying this many points. But this is where the Seminoles’ unfathomable 11-game ACC losing streak should come to an end. They are home and coming off a bye while Wake Forest is in letdown mode after pulling an upset against SMU last week. The Demon Deacons turned the ball over five times in that game, yet still managed to win 13-12 on an ugly 50 yard FG as time expired. Credit goes to HC Jake Dickert for the job that he’s doing in Winston-Salem as Wake was picked to finish near the bottom of the ACC prior to the start of the season. But the Demon Deacons now have two one-point victories this year, and are dealing with their own QB issues (starter Robbie Ashford is banged up). Whether it’s Ashford or backup Deshawn Purdie this week, I expect the offense to struggle to move the ball against a FSU defense that is permitting just 3.3 yards per rush attempt and will get CB Rawls back from injury. This Wake Forest offense is also one of the worst in the country when it comes to red zone efficiency. As far as Castellanos returning for the ‘Noles, Norvell sounded optimistic and the market clearly believes he’ll play here (as do I). Since opening the season with the upset of Alabama (here in Tallahassee), Florida State has been one of the unluckiest teams in the entire country (four straight one-possession losses). A month ago, it would have been insane to think the Seminoles would be “only” a 10-point favorite, at home, against Wake Forest. I’ll take them to simply win.

For the second leg, I like #24 Utah to handle its business, at home, against #17 Cincinnati. This is another instance of a lower ranked team in a Top 25 matchup and it’s (obviously) by a substantial number. I would have considered laying it with the Utes when the line first opened. But now we’ve lost some of the value. One of the reasons that the line has moved in Utah’s direction is that Cincinnati will be without leading rusher Evan Pryor. You have to credit the Bearcats for still being undefeated in Big XII play and winning seven in a row overall (only loss was to Nebraska, in Kansas City, back in the season opener). But this is a tough spot, going across the country to play in Rice-Eccles for the first time. Utah, despite playing with a backup QB, just annihilated Colorado last week by a score of 53-7. Total yardage was 398 to -18 at halftime and five of the Utes’ nine scoring drives for the game took less than a minute! Starting QB Dampier is probably going to be back this week, but regardless I expect Utah to win here in a game they absolutely need to stay in the Big XII title race. Despite two losses, I still have the Utes power-rated very high (2nd best team in the conference behind Tex Tech). By the way, ESPN “GameDay” is going to be in Salt Lake City this week, so expect a raucous atmosphere at a place where HC Kyle Whittingham rarely loses (95-31 SU). 3% ML Parlay - Florida State and Utah (Play to -190)