Bryan Power

THE PLAY: Algeria at Jordan - Both Teams To Score (+105)

Through the first 26 matches of this World Cup, the BTTS prop was cashing at a historic pace (73%). Predictably, there’s been a bit of regression since, as we’ve seen both teams score in just four of the last 14 matches. I cashed with two of those four - Netherlands/Sweden, as well as Germany/Ivory Coast. (I actually got a little aggressive - and lucky - with Germany/Ivory Coast BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals).

I know Algeria failed to score in its World Cup opener and created only 0.32 xG. But that was against Argentina. Much easier opponent this time around, facing a Jordan side that is winless in six straight matches overall. Four losses for the Jordanians over that time. They’ve conceded multiple goals in all six, including three to Austria in the WC opener (yes, I’m well aware one of them was a late penalty).

So I think this comes down to whether or not we think Jordan finds the back of the net. They did in the opener vs. Austria, and had 11 shots on goal, four of them on target. Jordan really needs to win this match if they are to have any hope of advancing to the knockout round. So don’t expect them to just roll over.

THE PLAY: Washington Nationals -118 Foster Griffin (LHP) Must Start

There are multiple paths that lead me to believe the Nationals are the right side in Monday's series opener against the Phillies.

The Phillies played on Sunday Night Baseball. While I understand that Philadelphia to D.C. is not the most arduous road trip in the world, generally speaking, MLB teams are at a disadvantage (relative to the opposition) having to travel after playing on Sunday night. We still don't know who will be starting tonight for the Phillies, but whomever it ends up being will have to face the league's highest scoring lineup (5.33 runs per game).

Meanwhile, the Phillies' scoring goes way down when they're on the road. This team is actually dead last in all of baseball in runs scored (129), batting average (.209) and wRC+ (72) on the road. Simply put, they are ill-equipped to hang with the Nationals in a potential slugfest. We should see regression at the plate after a monster weekend from Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper. Especially facing Foster Griffin, who has a 1.93 ERA his L5 starts for the Nats. When Griffin faced the Phillies earlier this season, he held them to just two runs on five in hits over five innings of work. Washington went on to win that game by a score of 13-2.