Bryan Power

THE PLAY: Indiana +3.5 (-122)

3% Indiana (12:00 ET): The #5 ranked and defending National Champion Hoosiers are putting two huge win streaks on the line Saturday in what is arguably the biggest game in the history of Memorial Stadium. They’ve won 22 straight games overall and are a perfect 19-0 SU in home games since Curt Cignetti took over two years ago. Yet the general consensus seems to be that IU deserves to be an underdog to #4 Ohio State on Saturday. I concur with that assessment, but made the number +2. So, right off the bat, I’m seeing some value here - especially getting “the hook” (+3.5). Yes, Indiana is a poor 1-5 against the spread to start the year, but they were favored by at least three touchdowns in all but one game.

Ohio State has looked like the most impressive team in the Big 10 this year. But remember they’ve already lost a game at Texas, despite having a 20-point first half lead. The Buckeyes have since won four straight - by an average of 31.25 points per game - but that was against weak competition (save for Iowa). They’re banged up coming into this game. Five starters missed last week’s 45-16 win over Maryland including multiple offensive linemen and wide receivers. They still have WR Jeremiah Smith, the betting favorite to win the Heisman Trophy, but he alone can not win a game like this in a hostile environment. Remember that Ohio State lost to Indiana, 13-10, in last December’s Big 10 Championship Game.

I was on the Hoosiers +3.5 there. So it seems like a “no brainer” to take them at the same number in a home game. Yes, IU was a better team last season. But so was Ohio State. I also understand that home dogs in AP Top 5 matchups haven’t performed well historically (2-5 SU), at least when 6-0 SU or better. But Cignetti is 8-1 SU/7-2 ATS when NOT a double digit favorite. The one SU win/ATS loss did come last week at Nebraska. But I expect it to be the Hoosiers that dominate this game “in the trenches” (they are +25 in TFL margin while OSU is -1). Points should also be at a premium (I do lean to the Under), which makes being on the dog the way to go here for the FOX Big Noon Kickoff. 3% Indiana (Play to +3)