Bryan Power

THE PLAY: REGULATION Newcastle United -103

Top six chaser Newcastle United travels to Turf Moor to face relegation-threatened Burnley Saturday morning and this is one of those cases where the perceived “must-win” nature of the match (for Burnley) has too greatly influenced the 3-way line. Again, it's not like Newcastle United is without motivation here. A win Saturday would move the Magpies (for the time being) ahead of Manchester United into 6th in the Premier League table, guaranteeing them European football for next season. 

By just about any available metric (other than points!), Newcastle has been a top six side in the EPL this season. Only the top four have better YTD goal differentials and the Magpies are also 5th in xPts & xGD. Meanwhile, Burnley very much deserves its current place near the bottom of the table. I know they've lost only one of their last eight League matches. But the Clarets only win in the last six came against last place Sheffield United.

Newcastle just beat Sheffield 5-1 last week, condemning the Blades to relegation status. Now they can strike a similar blow here to Burnley, who has the fewest home points in the league this season with 10. I just think there's a massive gap in quality here and getting the visitors at this price just to win is something worth playing. 

THE PLAY: New York Mets +129 J Quintana (LHP), A Civale (RHP) Must Start

I've said it before and I'll say it again: the Rays might actually be bad. Among American League teams, only the White Sox have a worse run differential. The Rays are 2-8 their last 10 games, 5-11 their last 16 games and have scored two runs or less in six of nine including four straight. In the series they just completed against the Brewers, the lineup struck out 30 times and had just ONE extra base hit. 

I look at the starting pitching matchup for tonight’s game and I’m not convinced Civale is better than Quintana, who allowed just one run over eight innings his last time out. And the Rays’ bullpen stinks! Highest ERA in all of MLB at 5.55. 

The Mets are off a nice come from behind win yesterday. For clients, I released the Over in that game, which was a winner by 6th inning. I also - on the Morning Wager - said to take the Cubs F5 (which won as well).  Just think we’re getting the better team at a plus price in this one.