Pavlos Laguretos

THE PLAY: Olomouc +0.75 (-115)

Sigma Olomouc vs Mainz
Conference League, Thursday, 3pm ET

Play: Sigma Olomouc +0.75
Odds at Time of Release: -115
Line Parameter: Line good to -125

Another match where I disagree with the odds, as Sigma are +420 underdogs at home, the Draw is at +263 and Mainz are -133 favourites, with the Spread at 0.75. Fading Mainz here.

Mainz are sitting dangerously close to the relegation zone in the Bundesliga with 24 points, as many as St Pauli below them, who are inside the red zone. Mainz play a huge match on the weekend, away at Werder Bremen, who are at 25 points, so a relegation battle. Failing to win that match and things could get hairy for Mainz, who play vs Frankfurt and Hoffenheim after that, so there is a very good chance they might find themselves inside the relegation zone.

Mainz have been very bad on the road for quite some time now, won just 1 of L/12 away matches in all competitions (W1 D4 L7), and that win came by a single goal. They do play a bit better since the change in coach in mid-December, but it was their previous coach that did pretty good in the Conference League.

All the while, Sigma Olomouc have been pretty solid at home, losing just 4 of 17 matches in all competitions (W8 D5 L4), and 3 of those 4 losses came by exactly 1 goal. With a W1 D2 L1 record in the Conference League, and rather comfortable in the standings of their domestic league, Sigma will go all in for a win here. And even if they don't win, I doubt they will lose by 2+ goals to a Mainz side that will slightly rotate and are coming here without their best player (Amiri).

Take 3% on Sigma Olomouc +0.75 (-115), line good to -125, that's a split line between Sigma +1 and Sigma +0.5, which means that we win the bet if they win, if they draw, and we also get half our stake back if they lose by exactly 1 goal.