Ligue 1 Predictions - Best French Ligue 1 Bets for February 1

Toulouse vs Auxerre
Ligue 1, Sunday, 11:15am ET

Play: Over 4.5 Cards
Odds at Time of Release: -120
Line Parameter: Line good to -135

We got THE best referee for cards officiating the two teams with the highest card totals on Sunday, between Toulouse and Auxerre.

• Auxerre #1 in Yellow Cards with 2.32/game and #1 in Red Cards with 6 in 19 matches.

• Auxerre #1 in Yellow Cards at home with 2.3/game, and #1 in Red Cards at home with 5 in 10

• Auxerre #1 in Yellow Cards Against with 2.58/game, and #3 in Red Cards Against with 4 in 19

• Auxerre #1 in Yellow Cards Against at home with 3.4/game, and #1 in Red Cards Against at home with 4 in 10.

• Toulouse #2 in Yellow Cards with 2.26/game, and #5 in Red Cards with 2 in 19

• Toulouse #1 in Yellow Cards on the road with 3.11/game, and #4 in Red Cards with 1 in 9

• Toulouse #7 in Yellow Cards Against with 1.95/game, and #5 in Red Cards Against with 2 in 19

• Toulouse #5 in Yellow Cards Against on the road with 1.78/game, and #3 in Red Cards Against on the road with 1 in 9.

• The reverse fixture had 9 cards with 1 red card.

Referee Romain Lissorgue is one of the best (if not THE best) for cards in the Ligue 1 this season:

7 matches, 37 total cards, average 5.28/game, with 2 red cards.

He has officiated two Auxerre matches this season, both at home and both vs Monaco (in league and Cup), with 10 and 7 cards.

The odds on Over 4.5 Cards range from -129 (BetRivers) to +100 (DraftKings), to -111 at B365. Taking a median price of -120 here.

Take 3% on the Over 4.5 Cards (-120), line good to -135

Released/revised 55 minute(s) ago

Angers vs Metz
Ligue 1, Sunday, 11:15am ET

Play: Penalty Kick Awarded
Odds at Time of Release: +300
Line Parameter: Line good to +225

Metz have the 3rd most Penalty Kicks FOR with 5 so far (scored 4 of 5), and they also have the 2nd most Penalty Kicks AGAINST with 7 (conceded 6 of 7).

Angers have 2 Penalty Kicks FOR and 4 AGAINST, and here's the interesting part: the same referee that officiated the reverse fixture in the first round is also officiating this one. Back in that match, he awarded a Penalty Kick for each side.

This is kind of a relegation battle, as Metz are sitting dead last with 12 points, but a win here could bump them two spots up, and in the relegation playoff spot. Angers are comfortably sitting 9 points above the relegation zone, but a loss here could complicate things.

Referee has awarded 5 Penalty Kicks in 9 Ligue 1 matches this season, and has a lifetime total of 73 Penalty Kicks in 262 Ligue 1 matches, an average of 0.27/match or, roughly, one penalty kick every 3-4 matches.

BetMGM have this prop at +300, we ride with 1u

Take 1% on Penalty Kick Awarded (+300), line good to +225

Released/revised 1 hour(s) ago