Tokyo Brandon

THE PLAY: Murray State -5.5 (-110)

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These long-term numbers say it all:

#4 WagerTalk ALL-SPORTS profit 2025 (+49 units) Tokyo Brandon 
#1 WagerTalk ALL-SPORTS profit 2024 (+180 units) Tokyo Brandon 
#1 WagerTalk ALL-SPORTS profit 2022 (+125 units) Tokyo Brandon 
#1 WagerTalk ALL-SPORTS profit 2021 (+225 units) Tokyo Brandon

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This will move to 6 or 7 take -7 or less.

Since conference play

Player matchup breakdowns (level of competition included)

Ahmad Henderson II vs Murray guard defense (Javon Jackson / Layne Taylor types): Henderson’s role is more “steady pilot” than “offense detonator,” but that can matter a lot against a defense that has allowed ~80.8 ppg since 1/1/26. If Murray’s perimeter contains without fouling, Illinois Chicago’s ceiling drops; if not, Illinois Chicago can keep this in the one-possession zone late.

Mekhi Lowery / UIC rebounding collective vs Fred King: This is the tectonic-plates matchup. King is Murray’s rebound hub (and a rim presence), and when he’s controlling the glass, Murray’s offense gets extra life even when they’re not shooting cleanly. Illinois Chicago’s defense since 1/1 has been legit (65.0 allowed), so the simplest way for Murray to break that is second-chance points and paint touches through King.

UIC team defense vs Murray creators (Jackson/Taylor): Murray’s recent slate has been very similar in opponent quality to Illinois Chicago’s (avg opponent rank ~150 for both), so the “they haven’t seen anyone like this” argument doesn’t really fly. The more honest angle: Illinois Chicago is allowing way fewer points lately than Murray is, and that tends to travel. If UIC keeps Murray in the 70s, the dog + points becomes live. If Murray drags it into the 80s, the spread becomes much tougher for UIC to cash.

Why I am laying points with the Racers:

Pros for Murray State -6.5 (since 1/1/26 focus, + matchup logic)

• UIC’s record looks better than the underlying “who did you play”: both teams’ recent opponent quality is roughly similar (avg opponent rank ~150-ish), but UIC’s 8–2 run has also come with a pretty hot ATS stretch that can regress hard when you step into a road spot against a higher-upside offense.

• Murray’s offense has the “pull-away” profile: since 1/1/26 Murray has been scoring 82.2 ppg. If they get to their normal scoring band, -6.5 is totally coverable even if UIC is competent.

• UIC’s offense is the weak link: UIC is ~71.7 ppg since 1/1/26. If Murray gets even average defensive possessions (no live-ball turnover fiesta), UIC can get stuck in the low 70s—bad math when you’re catching only 6.5.

• Home-court + game script: Murray has been better at home than away recently (3–1 home since 1/1/26). A favorite like this often covers via “late margin insurance” (free throws + defense) when leading.

• Rebounding/rim pressure leverage: with Fred King (8.7 rpg) anchoring the interior, Murray has a cleaner path to extra possessions/paint points than UIC. Extra possessions are basically oxygen for a spread cover.

• Injury cleanliness: no reported injuries for either team, which reduces “random rotation chaos” that can burn favorites (especially if a key ball-handler is out).

THE PLAY: Under +174.5 (-110)

7 Days of All Access for the Price of 3!

For a limited time, get a 7-Day All-Access Pass for just $69, the same price as a 3-Day pass. That breaks down to less than $10 per day for full access to Tokyo Brandon. You will receive every play, in every sport he releases, for a full week, including any Top Rated 5% Best Bets, which normally sell for $35 each.

This is your chance to follow Tokyo Brandon closely and get all of his action for seven straight days at a steep discount...

These long-term numbers say it all:

#4 WagerTalk ALL-SPORTS profit 2025 (+49 units) Tokyo Brandon 
#1 WagerTalk ALL-SPORTS profit 2024 (+180 units) Tokyo Brandon 
#1 WagerTalk ALL-SPORTS profit 2022 (+125 units) Tokyo Brandon 
#1 WagerTalk ALL-SPORTS profit 2021 (+225 units) Tokyo Brandon

Follow
X @Tokyo Brandon
TikTok @tokyobrandonofficial
Instagram @tokyobrandon

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Under 174.5 (Étoile de Charleville-Mézières @ Saint Vallier Basket Drôme) — why I like it

• The baseline math says the line is inflated. Season scoring/allowing sits roughly around: Saint Vallier 82.1 scored / 83.0 allowed, Charleville 75.6 scored / 85.7 allowed. That profile points to a “normal” total in the low–mid 160s, not the mid 170s.

• Charleville’s offense is the under’s best friend. At ~75–76 PPG, they usually need help (pace + hot shooting + lots of FTs) to push games into the 175+ zone. If they land in their typical 70s, Saint Vallier would need something like 95+ to beat 174.5 — not their usual scoring environment.

• Recent results live mostly below this number. Last few listed games show Charleville totals like 141 (74–67), 163 (93–70), 174 (96–78), 168 (99–69), 180 (88–92), 156 (90–66) — only one clearly above 174.5. Saint Vallier has some spikes (209 vs Fos, 185 vs Berck), but also plenty of “normal” totals (146, 143, 171). Net: 174.5 is sitting near the top of the recent range, not the middle.

• League context: this is Nationale Masculine 1 (Group B), and the season scoring numbers for both teams simply don’t scream “track meet.”

• Spread/game script helps. With Saint Vallier favored (and likely playing from ahead), you often get more half-court possessions, longer sets, and a fourth quarter that can drift instead of turning into a foul parade—good for an under at a big number.

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