Tokyo Brandon

THE PLAY: Under +174.5 (-110)

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This is your chance to follow Tokyo Brandon closely and get all of his action for seven straight days at a steep discount...

These long-term numbers say it all:

#4 WagerTalk ALL-SPORTS profit 2025 (+49 units) Tokyo Brandon 
#1 WagerTalk ALL-SPORTS profit 2024 (+180 units) Tokyo Brandon 
#1 WagerTalk ALL-SPORTS profit 2022 (+125 units) Tokyo Brandon 
#1 WagerTalk ALL-SPORTS profit 2021 (+225 units) Tokyo Brandon

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Under 174.5 (Étoile de Charleville-Mézières @ Saint Vallier Basket Drôme) — why I like it

• The baseline math says the line is inflated. Season scoring/allowing sits roughly around: Saint Vallier 82.1 scored / 83.0 allowed, Charleville 75.6 scored / 85.7 allowed. That profile points to a “normal” total in the low–mid 160s, not the mid 170s.

• Charleville’s offense is the under’s best friend. At ~75–76 PPG, they usually need help (pace + hot shooting + lots of FTs) to push games into the 175+ zone. If they land in their typical 70s, Saint Vallier would need something like 95+ to beat 174.5 — not their usual scoring environment.

• Recent results live mostly below this number. Last few listed games show Charleville totals like 141 (74–67), 163 (93–70), 174 (96–78), 168 (99–69), 180 (88–92), 156 (90–66) — only one clearly above 174.5. Saint Vallier has some spikes (209 vs Fos, 185 vs Berck), but also plenty of “normal” totals (146, 143, 171). Net: 174.5 is sitting near the top of the recent range, not the middle.

• League context: this is Nationale Masculine 1 (Group B), and the season scoring numbers for both teams simply don’t scream “track meet.”

• Spread/game script helps. With Saint Vallier favored (and likely playing from ahead), you often get more half-court possessions, longer sets, and a fourth quarter that can drift instead of turning into a foul parade—good for an under at a big number.

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THE PLAY: Tianjin +7.5 (-109)

7 Days of All Access for the Price of 3!

For a limited time, get a 7-Day All-Access Pass for just $69, the same price as a 3-Day pass. That breaks down to less than $10 per day for full access to Tokyo Brandon. You will receive every play, in every sport he releases, for a full week, including any Top Rated 5% Best Bets, which normally sell for $35 each.

This is your chance to follow Tokyo Brandon closely and get all of his action for seven straight days at a steep discount...

These long-term numbers say it all:

#4 WagerTalk ALL-SPORTS profit 2025 (+49 units) Tokyo Brandon 
#1 WagerTalk ALL-SPORTS profit 2024 (+180 units) Tokyo Brandon 
#1 WagerTalk ALL-SPORTS profit 2022 (+125 units) Tokyo Brandon 
#1 WagerTalk ALL-SPORTS profit 2021 (+225 units) Tokyo Brandon

Follow
X @Tokyo Brandon
TikTok @tokyobrandonofficial
Instagram @tokyobrandon

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Shandong at Tianjin Ronggang

Team comparison

Player vs player matchups

• Hamlet vs Gao: Hamlet is the higher-usage creator/scorer (23.6 PPG, 5.2 APG), while Gao’s value is pressure + table-setting (4.8 APG, 1.8 SPG). If Shandong keeps Hamlet out of the paint early, Tianjin’s offense can bog down.

• Benson Lin vs Akoon-Purcell: Lin’s minutes/usage are huge (34.0 MPG), but efficiency can swing; Akoon-Purcell is Shandong’s two-way engine (18.8 PPG, 4.4 APG, 1.5 SPG).

• Scottie James vs Shandong wings: James is a rebound-and-run catalyst (9.9 RPG, 16.6 PPG). Shandong’s edge is more size/physicality across multiple bodies rather than one stopper.

• Chriss/Tao inside vs Tianjin frontcourt: Shandong’s best “cheat code” is inside touches + foul pressure (Chriss 20.4 PPG, 7.6 RPG; Tao 6.0 RPG). Tianjin’s overall defense has been leaky (94.1 PA/G).

Full game projection

Shandong 91 – Tianjin 90 (Total 181)

Why I am betting this:

• My numbers don’t agree with the spread at all: I had this basically Shandong 91 – Tianjin 90 (≈1-point game). Getting +7.5 is a lot of padding for a game that projects close.

• Shandong’s road scoring is meaningfully lower in split data (85.2 away PPG) than their season average (93.2). That makes it harder for a road favorite to create separation.

• Tianjin’s home scoring profile is explosive (99.4 home PPG in last-5 home split). Even if that’s a bit noisy, it screams “can trade punches,” which is what you want when you’re taking points.

• Defense keeps it in the “one run decides it” zone: Shandong has been strong defensively in the recent window (last-5 / last-10 allowed numbers are notably better than Tianjin’s). That can reduce Tianjin’s chance of being blown out because Shandong isn’t automatically turning stops into a constant avalanche.

• The early-game profile favors a tighter script: we leaned 1Q under based on recent Q1 production. A slower/uglier start tends to help the underdog because it reduces the chance the favorite builds an early double-digit gap and coasts.

• Shot-variance + volume scorers = underdog “hang” potential: Tianjin has high-usage creators (Hamlet / Lin). If either gets hot from 3 or lives at the line, +7.5 can cash even in a loss.