Tokyo Brandon

THE PLAY: Oakland -5.5 (-110)

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Take -6.5 or better:

DraftKings odds

Since conference play

Player leaders

Injuries

My projection

Oakland 92 – Northern Kentucky 82

Trends & patterns

• Recent direction

  • Northern Kentucky: 4–4, but lost 3 straight to end January.

  • Oakland: 7–2, including a 2-game win streak entering this one.

• Home/away scoring shape

  • Northern Kentucky: Home 90.0 / Allow 78.5 vs Away 80.0 / Allow 81.3

  • Oakland: Home 90.5 / Allow 86.0 vs Away 83.0 / Allow 71.6
    Translation: Oakland home games have been “scoreboard-friendly,” but not always “defense-friendly.”

• How often results fit this spread shape

  • Northern Kentucky would have “covered +5.5” in 6 of 8 games by margin math

  • Oakland would have “covered -5.5” in 6 of 9 games by margin math

Player matchup breakdowns

Backcourt engine vs backcourt pressure: Oakland runs through Robinson’s creation (16.5 ppg, 6.3 apg), and his ceiling is real—he’s already shown “I will personally become the offense” ability (career-high 35 in a league game). Northern Kentucky’s best counter is making him work for every touch: Elliott is the steady table-setter on offense, but NKU’s real swing piece defensively is whether their bigger perimeter bodies (Gherezgher/Oday types) can bother Robinson’s rhythm without overhelping and giving up catch-and-shoot threes.

Paint: Oakland size vs NKU rebound anchor: Garrett + Naivalurua is a legit two-big look: both score efficiently inside and rebound well, and Oakland has leaned on that interior control in conference play. Northern Kentucky’s path is Wells staying out of foul trouble and keeping Oakland to one shot; if NKU has to send extra help, Oakland’s spacing shooters (like White) become the tax collector.

Bench scoring volatility: Oday’s role is the chaos lever—he can swing quarters with scoring bursts (including a 33-point outing recently). If Oakland’s second unit can simply “not bleed,” their starting shot-makers + paint scoring usually wins out. If Oday turns the game into a track meet, the +5.5 starts looking tastier and the total gets pulled upward.

Competition note (why I don’t overreact to early-season scores): Oakland’s raw season numbers include heavy-dose road trips to major opponents like Michigan Wolverines, Purdue Boilermakers, and Houston Cougars, while NKU has its own high-end game (e.g., at Tennessee Volunteers). That’s why I’m anchoring the projection on since-1/1 conference form instead of whole-season noise.

End

Projected score: Oakland 92 – Northern Kentucky 82

• Conference edge + current direction: Oakland is 9–3 in Horizon League and on a W2 streak, while Northern Kentucky Norse is 6–6 in league play and on a L3 skid. That’s the cleanest “better team right now” argument.

• Home/road setup supports separation: Oakland is 5–2 at home, and NKU is 4–6 away. A 6–10 point gap is exactly what you expect when the stronger league team is also at home.

• Late-game cover fuel: free throws. Oakland gets to the line a lot (18.4 FT made per game on 74.7%), which matters when you’re laying points: if they’re up 4–8 late, FTs can turn a push-ish game into a cover.

• Long-run home-court profile in league play: Oakland’s own game notes cite a strong multi-year home league record (they frame it as 103–37 over a big sample).

• No obvious injury landmines: Oakland lists no injuries to report, so you’re not paying -6 while missing a primary initiator or big.

THE PLAY: Fujian -101

Tokyo Brandon's has made $6261 on $100 bets the last 7 days. He is #1 in progit at WagerTalk in college hoops the last 3 days. Get his RED-HOT 4% Pick now – Don't miss out – Tokyo Brandon is the PROVEN #1 PROFIT MACHINE at WagerTalk:

#4 All-Sports Profit 2025 (+49u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2024 (+180u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2022 (+125u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2021 (+225u)

Tokyo Brandon has finished #1 overall in 3 of the last 5 years and delivered positive profits in 5 of the last 6 years. These aren't random guesses – they're serious BANKROLL BUILDERS! This locked-in College Basketball feature bet is set to CRUSH the books tonight. Snag it right now – your wallet will thank you later!

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Beijing Royal Fighters at Fujian

Form + splits comparison

Last-10 averages computed from each team’s last 10 listed finals.

Head-to-head since 12/5: one meeting — Beijing 94, Fujian 91 (total 185).

Player vs player matchups

1. Grant Riller vs Travis Trice
   Riller is the higher-usage scorer (21.1 PPG) vs Trice (15.5 PPG) with Trice as the steadier table-setter (5.2 APG). If Fujian can keep Riller out of early rhythm 3s, Beijing’s offense gets much more “grindy.”

2. Reggie Perry vs Yang Zou
   Perry is the rebounding/paint anchor (8.8 RPG) and should have the clearest “repeatable” edge on the glass vs Fujian’s team rebounding leaders (Zou 5.4). That matters because both defenses allow points—extra possessions are gasoline.

3. Liao Sanning vs Isaiah Briscoe
   Sanning’s advantage is creation volume (6.6 APG) while Briscoe’s is pressure scoring in fewer minutes (13.2 PPG in 18 MPG). If Fujian’s second unit is asked to guard Sanning in space, that’s a foul/rotation risk.

4. Zou Yuchen vs Vladimir Brodziansky
   Zou brings interior rebounding (6.0 RPG) and efficiency; Brodziansky is more of a stretch big (8.3 PPG) who can pull coverage away from the rim. The chess match: does Beijing switch and risk Perry/Zou mismatches, or stay big and give up spacing?

5. Zijie Shen rim protection vs Xihao Yang
   Shen’s boards/blocks (6.2 RPG, 1.2 BPG) help stabilize Beijing when their guards gamble; Xihao Yang’s shot-blocking (2.0 BPG) is Fujian’s best tool to blunt Riller drives.

Full-game projection

• Fujian pts = 92.4

• Beijing pts = 89.1

Projected final: Fujian 92 – Beijing 89 (Total 181)

Why I am betting Fujian full-game moneyline

• Home/away math screams Fujian (from your since-12/5 dataset):
  Fujian last 5 home: 103.4 PF / 96.4 PA
  Beijing last 5 away: 82.4 PF / 90.4 PA
  That’s a huge projected scoring gap on venue splits alone.

• Offense vs defense matchup leans Fujian:
  Beijing’s opponents are scoring ~93.7 PPG (team-stats snapshot).
  If Fujian is even close to their home scoring level, Beijing is forced to win a shootout—which hasn’t been their comfy habitat.

• Shot creation depth can tilt close games (late-clock possessions):
  Fujian’s guard scoring/playmaking options with Travis Trice and Isaiah Briscoe give them a path to manufacture points when sets die.
  Beijing’s counters are legit—Grant Riller plus Liao Sanning—but if Fujian dictates pace at home, Beijing can get dragged into “trade buckets” basketball.

• The last H2H was close despite a catastrophic Fujian 1Q:
  Beijing won 94–91, but it required a 23–9 first quarter cushion.
  If Fujian avoids the early crater at home, the matchup is much more coin-flippy—and the spread being only 1.5 basically admits that.