Pavlos Laguretos

THE PLAY: REGULATION Benjamin Sesko to score anytime (+105)

Hoffenheim vs RB Leipzig
Bundesliga, Friday, 2:30pm ET

Play: Benjamin Sesko to score anytime
Odds at Time of Release: +105
Line Parameter: Playable to -110

As for player props, it's quite interesting that BOTH Openda and Sesko have scored in each of L/4 matches. If they both score on Friday they will equalize the record held by two other duos (Hannes Lohr & Dietter Muller for Koln in 73/74 and Michael Ballack & Roy Makaay for Bayern Munich in 04/05). 

If you want to take a shot with a Same Game Parlay with both Openda and Sesko to score anytime, the odds aren't great at +210, I think that's too low for two players to score together, but Hoffenheim's defense has been tragic and in their last 3 matches alone they allowed 3 goals to Bochum, 3 goals to Gladbach and 4 goals to Mainz, so this could happen. 

To be honest, I'd much rather take 1u on Benajmin Sesko to score anytime (+105 at Draftkings).

For Correct Score predictions, you can always bet these as singles or put them in your round robins:

• 3-3 Draw (+2700 FD)
   
• Leipzig to win by 3-2 (+1200 FD)
   
• Leipzig to win by 4-1 (+1500 FD)
   
• Hoffenheim to win by 3-2 (+2900 FD)
   

THE PLAY: REGULATION Both Teams to Score & Over 3.5 Goals (-135)

Hoffenheim vs RB Leipzig
Bundesliga, Friday, 2:30pm ET

Play: Both Teams to Score & Over 3.5 Goals
Odds at Time of Release: -135
Line Parameter: Playable to -140

RB Leipzig destroyed Dortmund by 4-1 at home last week, despite trailing 1-0 in that match, and they have now won 4 in a row, while remaining unbeaten in L/9 in all competitions (W7 D2 L0). They are currently sitting 4th in the Bundesliga and have locked a ticket to next season's Champions League, no matter what happens in the 3 remaining matches. 

However, RB Leipzig have kept just 3 clean sheets in 22 away matches in all competitions, but ZERO away clean sheets in L/17 away matches since late September. Both Teams to Score is 15-2 in that span, and Over 2.5 Goals is 13-4, while Over 3.5 Goals is 9-8.

Hoffenheim are coming off a bad 3-2 loss at Bochum, and they were lucky to have lost by just 1 goal as they were already 3-0 down by the hour mark, and only managed to score twice in the second half to avoid a big-margin loss. They've been in bad form lately, winning just 2 of L/7, losing the other 5 (W2 D0 L5). They are on a 9-0 run to the Over 2.5 Goals, with Both Teams to Score being 8-1 in that span, and currently on a 4-0 run to the Over 3.5 Goals. 

Hoffenheim are sitting at the 9th spot of the Bundesliga with 39 points, 1 point behind the 7th spot that leads to the Europa Conference League, so they still have chances to grab a European ticket for next season. What's also really important is that the 8th spot might open up an extra ticket to the European competitions next season if Leverkusen win the Cup, or if Dortmund win the Champions League. And Hoffenheim are tied with the 8th Augsburg for 39 points, so they are more than interested in some points here. 

In fact, RB Leipzig have already claimed a ticket to next season's Champions League no matter what happens, they are only playing for fun right now, and for a better final placement in the standings. It's Hoffenheim who need the points in order to grab a ticket themselves, but they've been really inconsistent at the back. 

Looking at a goal-fest here, with 4 of L/5 H2H matches producing Over 2.5 Goals, and 3 of those going to the Over 3.5 Goals. The Asian Total is set at 3.75 Goals, which is a split line between 3.5 and 4 goals, and that means that if we take the Over 3.75 we would need 4 goals for a half win, and 5 goals for a full win. 

But since neither of these two can easily keep clean sheets, we will pivot to a 1u Same Game Parlay with Both Teams to Score & Over 3.5 Goals (-135)

As for player props, it's quite interesting that BOTH Openda and Sesko have scored in each of L/4 matches. If they both score on Friday they will equalize the record held by two other duos (Hannes Lohr & Dietter Muller for Koln in 73/74 and Michael Ballack & Roy Makaay for Bayern Munich in 04/05). 

If you want to take a shot with a Same Game Parlay with both Openda and Sesko to score anytime, the odds aren't great at +210, I think that's too low for two players to score together, but Hoffenheim's defense has been tragic and in their last 3 matches alone they allowed 3 goals to Bochum, 3 goals to Gladbach and 4 goals to Mainz, so this could happen. 

To be honest, I'd much rather take 1u on Benajmin Sesko to score anytime (+105 at Draftkings).

For Correct Score predictions, you can always bet these as singles or put them in your round robins:

• 3-3 Draw (+2700 FD)
   
• Leipzig to win by 3-2 (+1200 FD)
   
• Leipzig to win by 4-1 (+1500 FD)
   
• Hoffenheim to win by 3-2 (+2900 FD)
  
   

THE PLAY: REGULATION Draw +207

Bastia vs Amiens
France Ligue 2, Friday, 2pm ET

Play: Draw
Odds at Time of Release: +207
Line Parameter: Playable to +180

Interesting match-up in the French Ligue 2 on Friday, when Bastia will play host to Amiens, with both teams tied at 46 points and both teams sitting just 9 points above the relegation zone, with 3 matches to go. Right off the bat we can see that this is what we call a "comfortable Draw" in soccer terms, which means that if these two Draw on Friday they are both saved from relegation, and that's always a good reason to chase the Draw. 

Especially when the Draw is at +207, which is a bit too high considering the fact that both these will be saved. If this was an Italian or Greek match, the odds on the Draw would be +180 at best. 

Amiens have the 2nd most Draws in this league with 16 in 35 matches (W10 D16 L9), they are coming off 4 draws in L/5 (losing the other match by a slim 1-0), and they have 8 draws in L/11 matches. 

Bastia not so big on the Draws, with just 8 in 35 matches (W13 D8 L14), but each of L/2 matches between these two in this venue ended in Draws, and a Draw on Friday saves both their seasons, so it's not unnatural to look for a high-paid draw at +207. 

Take 1u on the Draw (+207)

THE PLAY: REGULATION Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (-130)

Toulouse vs Montpellier
Ligue 1, Friday, 1pm ET

Play: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals
Odds at Time of Release: -130
Line Parameter: Playable to -140

Toulouse are sitting 10th in the Ligue 1 with 40 points, they are 6 points behind the 6th spot that leads to the Europa Conference League with 3 more matches to go, so theoretically they can make it if they win at least two of 3 remaining matches. However, there is also the possibility that the 7th spot also opens up a European spot for next season, and Toulouse are just 4 points behind that, so they are interested for a win here. 

Montpellier are sitting 12th with 37 points, 8 points above the relegation zone, so they are not safe, especially with their last two matches being at home against Monaco and away at Lens, with both these teams looking to solidify their spots inside the top-6. Worst case scenario for Montpellier would be to lose all 3 matches while Metz win all 3 matches (it's rather unlikely, but possible nonetheless), so that would mean that Montpellier would finish 16th and in the relegation playoffs. 

Both teams in very solid form as of late, with Toulouse unbeaten in L/5 (W3 D2) and Montpellier also unbeaten in L/5 (W3 D2). Toulouse are on a 12-2 run to the Over 2.5 Goals (and 10-4 to the Both Teams to Score) and they are 5-1 to the Over 2.5 Goals in L/6 league matches at home, with 5-1 to the Both Teams to Score

Montpellier might be just 1-4 to the Over 2.5 Goals in L/5 but all 4 unders in that span came against teams that are also fighting relegation (Nantes, Clermont, Lorient, Le Havre), so take those results with a grain of salt because Montpellier had 2 red cards in their most recent, and they kept two clean sheets against teams that can't really score. Prior to that they were on an 8-0 run to the Over 2.5 Goals. Toulouse will not back down and will most likely score against Montpellier, so Montpellier will really need to score at least once if they want to get some points here. 

Final point, the H2H record which says that each of L/7 matches between the two had Over 2.5 Goals, with 4 of those also producing Both Teams to Score. 

Take 1u on a Same Game Parlay with Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (-130)