Vasco da Gama vs Criciuma
Brazil Serie A, Saturday, 3pm ET

Play: Vasco -0.75
Odds at Time of Release: -125
Line Parameter: Playable to -135

Vasco have had some really weird results in 3 matches in the Serie A so far, winning the match against Gremio in which they lost the xG battle (0.64 to 1.37), they lost to Bragantino despite winning the xG battle (1.77 to 1.06) and also lost to Fluminense despite winning the xG battle again (1.80 to 1.16). However, both Fluminense and Bragantino are extremely strong at home, and Vasco's upcoming opponent, newly-promoted Criciuma, is nothing compared to these teams. And, this match is a home match for Vasco, where they've only lost to Corinthians and Internacional since August. 

Criciuma have started with a couple of draws against Juventude and Atletico MG, but they were extremely lucky, especially in their 1-1 draw at Atletico MG. Criciuma gained promotion from the Serie B mainly thanks to their home performances (W14 D1 L4, +18 goal difference), but they struggled to get results on the road (W5 D6 L8, -6 goal difference). And that was in the Serie B. 

The two teams last met two seasons ago in the Serie B, where Vasco won both home and away at Criciuma. Vasco were really hard to beat at home last season, and only the big teams in Brazil managed to escape with all 3 points. Now against a newly-promoted side, and after losing their last two, I think Vasco will win this one easily. 

Take 1u on Vasco -0.75 (-125)