Nashville vs San Jose
MLS, Saturday, 8:30pm ET

Play: Over 2.5 Goals
Odds at Time of Release: -120
Line Parameter: Playable to -130

Nashville kept 3 easy (or lucky) clean sheets in their first 3 matches of the season, but beware, because two of those clean sheets came in the two CONCACAF Champions League matches against Dominican side Moca (a very bad team), and their other clean sheet came in the goal-less draw against the Red Bulls that was in-between these two matches and, to be fair, they should have lost that match as they generated just 0.10 xG while the Red Bulls had 1.62 xG. 

Even so, Nashville have not kept a single clean sheet in 9 matches in all competitions ever since (7 MLS matches and two CCC matches against Inter Miami). To make matters worse, they have conceded 2+ goals in 7 of L/9 matches. They have the 3rd worst xG difference/game in the entire MLS with -0.69/game, allowing the 3rd most xGA with 15.7 in 8 matches, or 1.96 xGA/game, which is just terrible. They have scored in 6 of 7 home matches in all competitions, scoring 2+ goals in 5 of 7. 

San Jose are coming off a wild 4-3 loss to the LA Galaxy last week, in a match where they almost stole some points despite going down 3-0 by the 30th minute. They did good offensively once again, generating 1.5 xG with 19 shots and 7 on target that produced 3 goals, but their defense betrayed them once again, allowing 2.27 xG, 11 shots with 7 on target and 4 of those ended in goals. 

San Jose are sitting dead last in the West with just 3 points so far (and the worst defense with 24 conceded goals), but they have one of the most eye-popping metrics in the entire MLS, and that is Expected Points. San Jose have just 3 actual points but they have 12 Expected Points, meaning that they have 9 points fewer than they should have. Really unlucky in the offense but also pretty bad on the defense. 

Zero clean sheets so far, conceding 2+ goals in ALL 9 matches, and conceding 3+ goals in each of their last 3. They absolutely need to stop the rot and frustration is building up in this squad, they need results and they need them now. I wouldn't be surprised if they managed to take a result in Nashville, but one thing is common between the two sides this season, and that is their weakness in the defense. 

Both teams can score though, and we are most likely in for a goal-fest as both teams will look for a win to escape the depths of their respective conferences. After all, San Jose are 8-1 to the Over 2.5 Goals (avg of 4.1 goals/match) and 5-0 on the road (avg of 4.6 goals/match), while Nashville are 6-2 to the Over 2.5 Goals (avg of 3.1 goals/match) and 4-1 at home (avg 2.8 goals/match).

Take 1u on the Over 2.5 Goals (-120)