Week 14 NFL Recap – Week 15 Betting Preview

NFL Betting Recap For Week 14

Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers his NFL Week 14 betting recap as well as his lookahead to Week 15 of NFL kicking off on Thursday! What are his takeaways and look aheads from a betting perspective? Read below now!

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NFL Betting Recap For Week 14

In part one of this article, I will provide observations on four NFL teams, plus make a general observation from what I saw in one of the Monday Night games. In part two, I will take an early look at two games for week 15.

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NFL Week 14 Recap

Kansas City is 8-5 and now leading the resurgent Denver Broncos by just one game in the AFC West. Let me remind everyone that the Chiefs are in the middle of a six-game stretch where their opponents all have a positive rest differential.

In a 17-game NFL schedule there are bound to be games where it’s difficult to play at your best. To have six weeks in a row where your opponent has more time to prepare is clearly a disadvantage.

The next three opponents are New England, Las Vegas and a visiting Cincinnati team. I expect at least two close calls due the scheduling edge, but these are opponents that KC should still beat.

As an aside, yes, WR Toney clearly lined up offside and a flag was warranted. KC is already famous for having its defensive linemen line up across the neutral zone. They have to do better.

The Dallas Cowboys are on a roll and are my #2 rated team, behind San Francisco. The win vs. Philadelphia was expected and deserved. Philly has won ugly all season long, and has been outscored 75-32 the last two weeks. With four games left in the season, the two are not only tied at 10-3 overall, but each has just one divisional loss.

I believe these next two statements can both be true:
Dallas is clearly outplaying Philadelphia
Philadelphia will win the NFC East

Last four games for Dallas: At Buffalo, at Miami, home to Detroit, at Washington
Last for games for the Eagles: At Seattle, home to the NYG, home to Arizona, at the NYG.

Last week I discussed the Detroit Lions in this spot. I feel the need to revisit the Lions again this week. As I wrote a week ago, their defense has underachieved.

In their last five games (all vs. teams with losing records), the Lions have allowed 149 points and nearly 66% of all passes to be completed. They have just seven defensive sacks and just two defensive interceptions.

I still have them winning the division, but now that may require a split of games vs. Minnesota. I’d like to see more emphasis placed on their pass rush. I’ll be reading the local news about any changes they plan defensively.

The New York Jets have a near outstanding defense. Their pass defense is in my top five overall. In their last five games they have been even better, allowing just 55.5% through the air.

In their last four games the run defense has improved, allowing just 3.65 yards per carry. For the entire season the Jets have a stout 36 defensive sacks.

There’s still one area that must be fixed before Aaron Rodgers returns in 2024. If the Jets can add a free agent stud offensive lineman, plus draft an offensive lineman in the 1st round, they can protect Aaron better than they did in his first and only four snaps with the team. Botton line: This defense is truly for real.

Finally, here is a bit of an off-the-wall observation from Monday’s contest between Miami and Tennessee. Bradley Chubb is one of the better pass-rushing LB’s in the NFL.

He also wears jersey #2. Recent rule changes have enabled LB’s and most other position groupings to have greater flexibility in choosing what jersey numbers they wear.

It got me to thinking about what Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes have said about the issue. Here’s a summary of what Tom Brady said about the rule change: “The number rule is crazy. I’m playing two guys who had different numbers in the preseason.

The running backs and offensive line, they’ve got to know who to block. So do the receivers who are adjusting their routes based on blitzes. It’s going to be a very challenging thing. It’s a good advantage for the defense, which that’s what it is.”

Mahomes made much the same point with this quote. “You get these guys who rotate in, and you’ll get a DB who’s in the 40s and a linebacker in single digits,” Mahomes said. “Having to really recognize that quickly.”

Yes, we’ve had bad QB play this year, but I’ve also noted on more than one occasion that sacks are up, and scoring is certainly down. Perhaps in some small way, this rule change is part of the reason.

NFL Week 15 Previews – First Look at Two Sunday Games

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers

Tampa is 6-7, and tied for first in the flawed NFC South. Green Bay is also 6-7, but in 3rd place in the tougher NFC North.

Theoretically, Tampa could finish 8-9 and host a playoff game. Green Bay does not have that luxury. The goal for both teams is to get to nine wins, and see where that leads them.

I do not see an edge in my early matchup diagnosis, and my Power Numbers show the very early current line (3.5) to be correct. The Packers have traditionally been strong as a December host, but will be off a short week, and have to rebound from a bitter, last play loss to the Giants.

Baker Mayfield is “built” to play in all types of weather conditions, but typically, Green Bay has the edge when it comes to facing warm weather teams in December.

All eyes will be on Jordan Love, who must limit turnovers. Watch the status of RB Aaron Jones carefully. He’s a better option as compared to Corey Dillon, and his return to the lineup would make a difference.

Dallas Cowboys vs Buffalo Bills

Dallas is red hot right now and has forged a tie with Philadelphia atop the NFC East. There’s a big difference between being the #1 or #2 seed in the NFC, and playing on the road as a #5 seed, so the Cowboys can’t afford a letdown.

Meanwhile, Buffalo earned a much-needed win at KC this past Sunday, and watched as many of their AFC competitors for playoff spots went down in defeat.

There’s still a chance Buffalo can catch Miami and win the AFC East, but even if that is not possible, going 3-1 down the stretch puts them at 10-7, which I believe will earn them a playoff spot.

Looking at this matchup, Dallas has been by far the higher scoring team, and their pass defense has not only forced a high rate of turnovers, but has caused many a QB to produce numbers below their seasonal accuracy.

As for Buffalo, it may surprise some people, but the Bills have a stronger sack ratio. Unfortunately, the rest of their numbers do not favorably compare to the Cowboys.

Once again, Josh Allen will be the key to this game. Allen is tied for 2nd in the NFL with 25 TD passes, but is also tied for last in the NFL (with Sam Howell) at 14 interceptions. A clean game from Allen on Sunday could give Buffalo the victory.

NEXT UP: The NCAA Bowl Season begins this Saturday.  My College Bowl Previews for this Saturday will be posted soon.

Follow me on twitter @ronacesports to be alerted of future articles, and my weekly podcasts with @lasvegascris

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