Free MLB Picks Today – Three MLB Games Predictions for 7/27/2023
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The Pulse: Daily MLB Betting Picks for Thursday, July 27
Mets vs Nationals Prediction
NATIONALS (+170) at METS (-200), 7:10 p.m. ET, Total: 9
The Mets were shut down in this season’s Subway Series finale, falling 3-1 and managing just four hits. New York is now seven games under .500 and 7.5 games back in the Wild Card chase with just over 60 games to go, so it will be interesting if they choose to sell at the trade deadline. Taking care of business in this four-game set against the Nationals could go a long way in making that decision. Kodai Senga (7-5, 3.27 ERA) will start for the Mets and has been one of the team’s bright spots this season. He has allowed two or fewer runs in five straight starts and has a 2.08 ERA through three July starts, striking out 24 batters in 17.1 innings and allowing just 11 hits and four earned runs. The Japanese rookie righty suffered his first big-league loss against the Nationals back on April 26, giving up just two runs over five innings in a 4-1 loss. CJ Abrams went 2-for-2 and Lane Thomas singled and reached on a walk in that contest.
The Nats will counter with All-Star Josiah Gray (7-8, 3.45), who hasn’t been as great the past few months as he did in the opening months of the season. The 25-year-old righty is a New York native and will certainly be up for this visit to Queens. He’s coming off allowing just one earned run in seven innings in a 10-1 win over the Giants to lower his July ERA to 4.24, which is about where it was in June. Current Mets are hitting a robust .340 against Gray, with Pete Alonso (3-for-9), Jeff McNeil (4-for-9) and Tommy Pham (1-for2) all going yard against him. Brandon Nimmo (4-for-8) has doubled and tripled against Washington’s ace. Most of that damage was done in previous seasons since Gray picked up his first win of ’23 in a 5-0 win at Citi Field on April 25, striking out nine Mets over six innings.
THE PLAY – First Five Innings Under 5 Runs (-115):
Gray has been much improved this season and is coming off a great outing, while Senga has consistently been solid for New York. Given the Mets struggled in the Bronx on Wednesday, we’ll hope their bats stay cold early here and will ride the first-five under in this contest.
Cardinals vs Cubs Prediction
CUBS (EV) at CARDINALS (-110), 7:45 p.m. ET, Total: 9.5
The Cubs swept a two-game set from the White Sox and have now seven of their last eight games as they come into St. Louis for another series with their arch rivals. This run includes winning three of four at Wrigley from July 20-23, further cementing the Cardinals as sellers at the trade deadline. Chicago’s offense has been really productive of late, scoring seven or more runs in four straight games. Lefty Justin Steele (10-3, 2.95) will attempt to get Chicago back to .500 since May 12 when they got to 19-19. It’s been a long road back but Steele is the right guy to have on the mound since he was minted an All-Star this season, pitched a scoreless inning in Seattle for the NL and shook off a rocky start against the Red Sox by beating the Cards last Friday, striking out nine over 6.1 innings and allowing two earned runs in a 4-3 win. The win improved him to 3-0 against St. Louis this season, as he’s put together a 2.95 ERA over 18.1 innings against the Redbirds. They’re hitting .254 against him this season but haven’t homered and have managed just six runs. Paul Goldschmidt (5-for-16) has gone deep against him in the past and rookie Jordan Walker has gone 2-for-5, so we’ll see if they can at least play spoiler in this series opener to keep the Cubs from getting to 51-51.
Miles Mikolas (6-5, 4.33) will open this four-game set and has plenty of experience against the Cubs, which includes getting roughed up in allowing five runs on 11 hits over five innings in last Saturday’s 8-6 loss. Outside of a great May (1.89 ERA), it’s been a fairly rocky season for the mustached Mikolas, who has a 5.79 ERA and two no-decisions in his outings against Chicago in 2023. The Cubs are hitting .357 against him this season and have done damage despite not homering against him over 9.1 innings. Nico Hoerner (.409, 9-for-22), Dansby Swanson (6-for-19, 1 HR) and Ian Happ (10-for-34) have all been solid against Mikolas, who has also been better on the road than at home this season.
THE PLAY – Nico Hoerner Over 1.5 R+H+RBI:
Hoerner comes in on a 9-for-16 surge at the plate and has scored six times in a four-game span, helping key the offense near the top of the order. Given his success against Mikolas over their careers, we’ll back the over on Nico Hoerner’s hits + runs + RBI prop.
White Sox vs Guardians Prediction
GUARDIANS (-105) at WHITE SOX (-115), 8:10 p.m. ET, Total: 8.5
Oddsmakers are basically viewing this as a pick’em, despite the presence of Dylan Cease (4-3, 4.04) on the mound for the White Sox. Since Lucas Giolito was shipped out to the Angels on Wednesday night, Cease has to feel like he might be next if there’s a fire sale underway. The righty has been very good lately, allowing just one run in each of his last two starts. Dropping a pair of games to the Cubs has the Sox reeling into this one on a five-game losing streak, which includes a tough luck 3-2 loss at the Twins the last time Cease took the mound. This will be the third time the Chicago ace will take the mound against Cleveland, splitting a pair of games in May as he allowed five runs over 12.1 frames. Gabriel Arias is 3-for-5 with a homer against Cease, while slugger Josh Bell has gone 4-for-10. Star Jose Ramirez is just 5-for-21 with two extra base-hits while catalyst Myles Straw is 0-for-8, striking out four times.
The Guardians have moved within just two games of the first-place Twins in the AL Central and aim to win a third straight game behind sharp rookie Tanner Bibee (6-2, 3.04), who has really provided a boost since coming up in late April. He has won his last four decisions and allowed two or fewer runs in each of his last five starts. Bibee is sporting a 1.14 ERA in July and allowed just two hits over seven shutout innings against the Phillies last Saturday. This is the first time the White Sox will be seeing the rookie.
THE PLAY – Cleveland Guardians MoneyLine (-105):
Morale can’t be very high in the Chicago clubhouse since its current losing streak has dropped the team 21 games under .500. Cease isn’t an easy guy to fade, but Bibee has an edge against Chicago hitters that haven’t faced him and the Guardians bullpen is definitely the better group. Back Cleveland on the full-game moneyline in this AL Central clash.
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