Free MLB Picks Today – Four MLB Games Predictions for 7/26/2023
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The Pulse: Daily MLB Betting Picks for Wednesday, July 26
Yankees vs Mets Prediction
METS (+135) at YANKEES (-160), 7:05 p.m. ET, Total: 8.5
The Yankees misplayed a fly ball, couldn’t hit Justin Verlander and got crushed in the third game of the four-game Subway series for the season, so the best they can do is earn a split by picking up a win here. Not a lot has gone right for the Mets this season, but a Pete Alonso 3-run homer helped his team gain separation early last night and the visitors were never really challenged in the Bronx. Jose Quintana (0-1, 3.60 ERA) makes just his start of 2023 as he looks to lift the Mets to a two-game sweep. Current Bombers are hitting just .238 against him, with Gleyber Torres faring best (2-for-3) against the 34-year-old Colombian lefty.
The Yanks will counter with prized offseason acquisition Carlos Rodon (0-3, 7.36), who has gotten progressively worse since a decent debut after missing the start of the season due to various injuries. He’s given up a homer in each of his three starts and comes off a 7-3 loss to the Angels last Wednesday in which he got rocked for six runs in 4.1 innings, walking five and struggling mightily. Although he’s shown flashes of being the pitcher New York thought it was getting when it shelled out a ton of money in free agency, he’s clearly still struggling to find a rhythm and only has an 11:9 strikeout-to-walk ratio and has given up 12 earned runs in 14.2 innings. Francisco Lindor (10-for-34, 2 home runs) and Mark Canha 2-for-9 (2 homers) have had some success against him, and current Mets are batting .283 when facing the left-hander.
THE PLAY – Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 H+R+RBI:
Lindor went 3-for-5 and scored three times on Tuesday and carries a modest three-game hitting streak into this one. He’s batting .261 in July, the best he’s fared in any month this season, smacking three home runs while stealing eight bases. Given his solid history against Rodon, we’ll ride the over on his hits + runs + RBI prop.
Red Sox vs Braves Prediction
BRAVES (-165) at RED SOX (+140), 7:10 p.m. ET, Total: 9.5
The Sox fell behind 1-0 in the first but scored twice in the bottom half on Tuesday, never trailing again in cruising to a 7-1 win behind a strong effort from Nick Pivetta and the bullpen. Boston will turn to young Dominican righty Brayan Bello (7-6, 3.60) to try and take Atlanta down again and are hoping he bounces back from his roughest start of the season after the A’s got to him for three home runs and six earned runs in just four innings in a 6-5 loss last Wednesday. Bello allowed just two runs in six innings in Atlanta back on May 10, putting together one of his better starts of 2023 by coaxing one ground ball after another in addition to striking out five while walking one. Current Braves are 6-for-22 (.273) against Bello, with Austin Riley coming in 2-for-3.
Spencer Strider (11-3, 3.78) has had a rough time since the All-Star break, allowing nine runs in 12 innings despite striking out 23 hitters to increase his MLB-best number. He’s given up three homers and hasn’t been as sharp as he has been at various times this season, although Atlanta has still managed to win in nine of his 10 outings. He’s worked at least six innings in six straight starts despite his recent woes. Strider didn’t pitch against the Red Sox when these teams met a few months ago and has a limited history against the Red Sox, facing only ex-Dodger Justin Turner (0-for-3), so he should have an edge the first time through the lineup so long as he can locate his fastball.
THE PLAY – Atlanta Braves -0.5 First Five RunLine:
Even though Strider has struggled lately, it’s still awfully tempting to ride the MLB strikeout leader against a lineup that hasn’t really seen him. Bello has good stuff, but coming off a rough start and facing a Braves team looking to bounce back isn’t a combination we’re looking to deal with. Ride Atlanta as a first-five inning run-line bet in this contest.
Astros vs Rangers Prediction
RANGERS (+150) at ASTROS (-175), 8:10 p.m. ET, Total: 8.5
The Astros pulled one game behind rival Texas in the AL West with a big win on Tuesday night and can tie them up as a heavy favorite behind their ace lefty on Wednesday. Framber Valdez (8-6, 2.94) has also struggled since the All-Star break, giving up nine runs in 11.1 innings in road games against the Angels and A’s. We’ll see if getting back home will help Valdez get back on track since he’s got a 2.13 ERA in 11 starts at Minute Maid Park and has an excellent 74:11 strikeout-to-walk ratio there. Another big development for Houston is that it is expected to get standouts Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve back from lengthy absences due to injuries, and both are confirmed to be in the starting lineup. Current Rangers are hitting just .225 against Valdez, with nobody really excelling against the Astros top pitcher.
The Rangers will throw lefty Andrew Heaney (6-6, 4.58) out there to try and keep their division lead on the heels of getting a no-decision against his former team, the Dodgers, in an 11-5 loss last Friday. He’s worked two games this month where he didn’t give up a single run through five innings and has had a tough time in two other stars, getting touched up through the long ball. Heaney did get through five shutout innings of three-hit ball on July 2, striking out eight and walking only one in his best start over the past few months, so he’s got a shot to thrive in an underdog role. Current Astros are batting just .227 against him, although Jose Abreu (5-for-15, 4 HRs, 9 RBI) has really thrived against the Texas southpaw and could be the key to Houston heating up over the next few months now that he’ll have more help in the lineup after a slow start.
THE PLAY – Houston Astros -0.5 First Five Runline:
Astros manager Dusty Baker indicated the calvary is coming back in his post-game comments on Tuesday, so getting back Alvarez and Altuve will infuse Houston with great energy. Combined with their ace taking the mound, this is a good spot to ride the Astros on the run line in the first five innings.
White Sox vs Cubs Prediction
CUBS (-115) at WHITE SOX (+105), 8:10 p.m. ET, Total: 9
The Cubs jumped all over the Southsiders in this interleague matchup between Chicago’s teams, leading 5-0 entering the bottom of the fifth in an eventual 7-3 win in which they notched 13 hits, roughing up Michael Kopech. Dansby Swanson hit a pair of homers, drilling two of four that they were able to connect upon in support of Kyle Hendricks. Staff ace Marcus Stroman (10-7, 3.09) will look to deliver another win but has had a rocky July in giving up at least four runs in three of his last four starts. The Cubs have dropped four of his last five outings, so it’s tough to ride this group as a road favorite despite what went down on Tuesday night. Current White Sox hitters are batting .246 against Stroman, with Andrew Benintendi (6-for-15, .400) faring best.
Lance Lynn (6-9, 6.18) is still striking out hitters and getting whiffs, but he’s also had a dreadful time giving up the long ball this season. The Twins hit four home runs against him last Friday in a 9-4 Chicago loss, ending a decent run for him since he helped beat the Braves on July 15 and put together one of his best outings of 2023 against the Blue Jays on July 6, pitching seven innings of one-hit ball and striking out 11 hitters in his last home start. Despite that outing, Lynn has struggled just as much at home as he has on the road, so splits don’t really come into play here. Current Cubs are batting .283 against him.
THE PLAY – White Sox vs Cubs Over 9 Runs:
With Stroman struggling and Lynn always vulnerable to the long ball, we’re going to take a shot with the full-game over on nine runs, hoping that the bullpens also have a tough time in this matchup of Windy City squads.
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