Free MLB Picks Today – Five MLB Games Predictions for 7/25/2023
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The Pulse: Daily MLB Betting Picks for Tuesday, July 25
Yankees vs Mets Prediction
METS (-110) at YANKEES (EV), 7:05 p.m. ET, Total: 8.5
The Yankees and Mets get together for another Subway Series, convening in the Bronx for another installment of one of baseball’s most compelling matchups in what is scheduled to be another two-game set. New York’s MLB squads got together in Queens on June 13-14, playing a pair of entertaining one-run games with each team claiming a win. The visitors are favored in this first of two contests that will culminate this season’s meetings barring a World Series encounter. Justin Verlander (4-5, 3.47 ERA) will start for the Mets and has finally found his groove after being injured to start the season, not making his debut for New York until May 4. He pitched five innings of shutout ball in his final start in June and has a 2.08 ERA through four July starts, pitching 26 innings and allowing just 15 hits and six earned runs. The 40-year-old Verlander has a strong history against current Yanks, who are hitting just .207 against him as a unit. DJ LeMahieu has done the most damage, coming in 8-for-25 (.320) with a pair of homers.
The Bronx Bombers will counter with Domingo German (5-6, 4.52), who has been fairly mediocre since memorably pitching a perfect game in Oakland in an 11-0 win on June 28. He’s lost his only decision in July and has surrendered eight earned runs in 16 innings this month, coming off a 5-1 loss to the Angels last Tuesday. German has struck out nine batters in consecutive games, so his whiff rate has been solid, but he’s served up home runs that have done damage in his last two outings. Current Mets are hitting .243 against the Dominican right-hander, but Mark Canha has absolutely feasted on him, going 7-for-13 with a homer. Despite going hitless in his last two contests (0-for-7), it’s a safe bet he’ll be in Buck Showalter’s lineup.
THE PLAY – NEW YORK METS FIRST FIVE -125:
Verlander is running too hot not to ride him, but I’m a little leery of the visiting bullpen to recommend a full-game wager, especially on the road. Back the Mets as a first-five moneyline winner in this contest.
Twins vs Mariners Prediction
MARINERS (-105) at TWINS (-115), 7:40 p.m. ET, Total: 7.5
The Twins fell behind 3-2 in the top of the ninth inning as Griffin Jax blew a save in last night’s series opener, surrendering a home run to would-be hero Kolten Wong. Max Kepler then rescued Minnesota with a clutch double off Andres Munoz, and closer Paul Sewald gave up a run in the 10th inning as Carlos Correa won it for the home team. Neither team scored in the first four innings, so under bettors avoided a bad beat in extras and won their first-five bet rather easily despite both teams getting on the board in the fifth. Another pitchers duel could be in the cards with Pablo Lopez (5-6, 4.22) squaring off against George Kirby (9-8, 3.23). Despite a losing record, Lopez has been pretty good for Minnesota, giving up three or fewer earned runs in four of his last five starts. He also pitched a scoreless inning in the All-Star Game, surrendering two hits but wiggling out of a jam thanks to a pair of strikeouts.
Kirby worked at All-Star in front of his home crowd too, giving up a run on two hits. He struggled in his first start coming out of the break and got roughed up by Detroit but rebounded against these Twins last Thursday, pitching seven scoreless frames and striking out 10 batters in a masterful effort. Current Minnesota players are just 6-for-28 with no homers against the talented young Mariners righty, who will look to get his team back on track after consecutive 4-3 losses. These teams split a four-game set last week, so they’re definitely familiar with one another. Lopez suffered a loss in the 5-0 matchup against Kirby despite striking out seven and allowing just two runs over five innings. He’ll look to get revenge in this one but will have to navigate a lineup that has seen him well. Eugenio Suarez is 4-for-7 against Lopez, while Teoscar Hernandez is 2-for-5 with a home run.
THE PLAY – SEATTLE MARINERS FIRST FIVE +105:
Although Lopez is looking to bounce back and is in solid form, it’s hard to fade Kirby given how dominant he was against this same team last Thursday. We’ll ride Seattle as a first-five inning moneyline bet in this contest.
Brewers vs Reds Prediction
REDS (+130) at BREWERS (-150), 8:10 p.m. ET, Total: 8
The Brewers have owned the Reds this month, climbing over them on the strength of five wins in six contests before and after the All-Star break. Andrew Abbott (5-2, 2.10) has been superb for Cincinnati in his rookie season but suffered a pair of losses against the Crew. In fact, Milwaukee is the only team to defeat him this season, getting to him for eight runs in 10.1 innings. He rebounded from the setbacks by dominating San Francisco last Thursday, allowing just one hit over eight innings in a 5-1 victory. William Contreras is 4-for-8 against him and Owen Miller is 3-for-8, but star Christian Yelich is just 1-for-9 and Blake Perkins is 0-for-7.
Milwaukee will look to ace Corbin Burnes (9-5, 3.49) to try and space out the 1.5-game edge the team has on the visiting Reds. He is 4-0 in July and took down Cincy twice in a one-week span, striking out 19 and allowing just two runs over 12 innings. So far this month, he’s got a 1.33 ERA over 27 innings, making him one of baseball’s hottest pitchers. Burnes has owned Cincinnati, who have collectively hit just .127 against him over their careers.
THE PLAY – SPENCER STEER UNDER 1.5 R+H+RBI:
Although you can fade most Reds against Burnes given their history against him, Spencer Steer is who we’ll pick on here, riding the under on his hits + runs + RBI prop. He’s 0-for-5 with three strikeouts against Burnes and comes in on a four-game hitting streak, in which he’s gone 7-for-17, so we’ll count on him getting cooled off by a nemesis.
Diamondbacks vs Cardinals Prediction
CARDINALS (+105) at DIAMONDBACKS (-125), 9:40 p.m. ET, Total: 9
With the trade deadline on the horizon on August 1, it will be interesting to see how the Cardinals manage a time where most players can be moved depending on what offers come in. Steven Matz (1-7, 4.67) has been dreadful all season, but the lefty may be one guy who can use a fresh start given how poorly he’s performed. St. Louis went 2-16 in his first 18 appearances for the team but has actually won three in a row in which he’s participated in. After a stint in the bullpen where he compiled a 1.64 ERA in June, he’s 1-0 in July with a 3.71 ERA. This might be a final opportunity for him to impress and land with a team looking for a southpaw.
Merrill Kelly (9-4, 3.22) is coming off the injured list and hasn’t pitched since June 24 due to a calf injury, so we’ll see how he handles his business in his return. He got rocked by the Giants in that start but wasn’t feeling like himself and has obviously been one of the reasons why Arizona is competing with the Dodgers for NL West supremacy. Kelly had won eight consecutive decisions before being injured, so he can really be an asset if he’s right.
THE PLAY – EVAN LONGORIA OVER 1.5 R+H+RBI:
Evan Longoria is 2-for-5 with a pair of home runs against Matz, so we’ll look for the veteran to continue his run against the lefty and will ride the over on his hits + runs + RBI prop.
Dodgers vs Blue Jays Prediction
BLUE JAYS (+120) at DODGERS (-135), 10:10 p.m. ET, Total: 9
The Jays came through in extra innings to pick up a 6-3 win at Chavez Ravine, staying hot as they claimed their 11th win in 16 games. Given how Tampa Bay and Baltimore are faring as we’ve surpassed the 100-game mark, wins like these are vital for Toronto, particularly on the road in tight games. Chris Bassitt (10-5, 3.92) takes the ball and has been extremely reliable lately, pitching in five consecutive Jays wins and allowing three or fewer runs in five consecutive starts. One development to be aware of is that the Dodgers are expected to get J.D. Martinez back after he’s missed the past few games with hamstring tightness.
Julio Urias (7-6, 5.02) hasn’t looked like himself since missing over a month due to injury and comes off an awful start against Baltimore in which he was touched up for eight runs in five innings. The Mexican lefty has a 6.75 ERA in July despite going 2-2 and has really been spotty since coming off the injured list. We were fortunate to win with the Blue Jays on Monday and we’ll ride with them again. Brandon Belt is 7-for-22 with a pair of homers against him throughout their careers.
THE PLAY – TORONTO BLUE JAYS +120:
Since the Dodgers bullpen has struggled and Toronto All-Star closer Jordan Romano delivered again in tying up the MLB saves leader, we’ll back the Blue Jays for the full game here.
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