PGA Championship 2025: Expert PGA Predictions & Betting Preview

PGA Championship 2025 Betting Preview

WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the PGA Championship teeing off from Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, NC! Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, a long shot to win and other expert picks surrounding the PGA Championship starting on May 15th!

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PGA Championship	PGA Championship
When:	May 15-18
Where:	Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, NC
Defending Champ:	Xander Schauffele
Current Favorite:	Scottie Scheffler (+425 at DraftKings)
TV:	CBS, ESPN

PGA Championship Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel , DraftKings and others)

PGA Championship Betting Preview

Last week we were treated to a new venue to host a PGA Tour event as the Truist Championship’s usual host, Quail Hollow, was gearing up to host this week’s PGA Championship.

That gives us much deeper course history to look at than normal when it comes to major championships as the field does get to play this course every year (at least the true contenders anyway).

The track has also hosted the PGA Championship back in 2017, where Justin Thomas prevailed, as well as the President’s Cup in 2022. So again, plenty of past performance data to make sense of.

Quail Hollow is a tough track as the course usually ranks among the hardest the players face all season. The course can stretch to just over 7,600 yards, playing to only a par-71 with the players facing more than half of their approach shots from over 175 yards. Unlike last week, that puts a premium on distance off the tee.

If you miss the fairway, players will be greeted by rough measuring 2.75 inches to start the week and likely reaching 4” by Sunday. Green complexes are tricky and very fast while the finishing three-hole stretch, known as the Green Mile, can present great drama to end the tournament.

In fact, the par-4 18^th hole ranked as the single toughest hole of all 900+ holes played on Tour last year averaging a full half-stroke over par. The 17^th ranked 24^th and the 16^th ranked 32^nd, again, out of 900+ holes.

To win, players need to take advantage of the par 5s and hang on for par on the remaining holes which will put you right in line with typical winning scores here. Last year Rory won his 4^th title on this golf course with a winning score of 17-under, while Xander came in at 12-under and nobody else reached double-digits showing the anomaly of Rory’s score.

This week will be interesting to see what the score reaches as the area is experiencing an extremely wet week leading up to the event. On one hand, that could lead to soft greens which players normally will eat up. On the other hand, it makes the already long golf course even longer, which likely eliminates 75% of the field from realistically contending.

However, by the time the tournament begins, dry, warm air is expected with temperatures in the mid-80s pretty much all week.

Wind doesn’t appear to be a major factor this week either, so it’s really how will the first round play compare to later in the week? It could play significantly longer early in the Championship and tournament organizers may adjust tee boxes accordingly.

Finally, the field is the largest of any of the major Championships at 156 players including 20 club professionals representing the PGA of America’s best from around the country. Notably if you are planning on betting ‘the cut’ market, the cut is set at the Top-70 and ties, unlike the standard TOUR events of only the Top-65.

Honestly, it is hard not to see one of the big three of Rory, Scottie or Bryson winning this week. Combined, the hold over a 50% implied chance of winning according to available odds by the sportsbooks.

Unfortunately, those same books have not adjusted the “next tier” higher, price gouging at its finest, or rather an inability to properly set lines. There is legitimately no value whatsoever in betting this tournament.

That being said, let’s talk who to bet because we know we are all going to do it…

PGA Championship Predictions

Justin Thomas +2200 | Top-10 +200 | Top-20 -110

He is the next most likely to win this event (sorry Jon Rahm fans), and thus getting better than 20-1 compared to the big three provides comparative value.

JT is coming off his win at the RBC Heritage last month and nearly won again last week at the Truist Championship. In this field, he ranks 4^th in Total SG over the last six months, behind those previously mentioned favorites.

JT has two major championships to his name, both PGA Championships. His won his first in 2017 at this very venue so to say his vibes around here are high is an understatement.

While Rory has the best course history, JT has been solid with six starts at the Truist Championship (formerly Wells Fargo), finishing T26 or better five times.

Thomas has the length to contend here and is one of the most creative players around the greens. He ranks 5^th in SG Around the Green and can also roll the rock coming in at 20^th in SG Putting.

Then there is the fact that he is simply hot. In his last four starts, JT has a win and two runner-ups.

Patrick Cantlay +4500 | Top-10 +350 | Top-20 +150

Anytime I bet on Cantlay, I always give the same warning. I never do well when betting on him. But with very few players having the length this week to truly contend, I do believe Cantlay is on that short list.

Additionally, he is coming off a T4 finish last week in Philly along with a T13 in his start prior to that at the RBC Heritage.

He obviously hasn’t won in a while, but his ball-striking numbers are elite, especially his long iron play. With Xander winning last year, Cantlay is probably the next best player yet to win a major.

One stat that I rarely talk about, but I think it’s worth mentioning, is called Approach Putt Performance. It’s basically a measurement of lag putting.

With approach shots being long this week, that means average proximity will obviously be further away from the hole.

Being able to comfortably two-putt all week will add a few strokes over the course of the tournament. Cantlay ranks 2^nd on Tour in that category.

See you next week for the Charles Schwab Challenge!

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