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2024 PGA Championship Free Picks, Predictions and DFS Lineup May 9-12

Golfer Jon Rahm preps for PGA Championship

2024 PGA Championship Betting Preview

WagerTalk golf handicapper Andy Lang offers his thoughts on the 2024 PGA Championship teeing off from Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, KY. Andy discusses his DraftKings Darlings, golfers to who can trip you up and the course and more surrounding the 2024 PGA Championship starting May 9th!

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2024 PGA Championship2024 PGA Championship Betting Notes
When:May 16-19
Where:Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, KY
Defending Champ:Brooks Koepka
Current Favorite:Scottie Scheffler (+400 at DraftKings)
TV:ESPN, Golf Channel, CBS

2024 PGA Championship Course: Valhalla Golf Club

This course is definitely set up for the long hitters off the tee as this will be a Par 71 at just over 7600 yards. The fairways are pretty wide, but there are definitely some trees along some of the fairways that can cause problems for wayward shots.

The grass in the fairways promotes a bit more roll of the ball, but the weather this week might soften up the course and take the roll away making it even longer to play.

Normally on these longer courses, I would say that the accuracy off the tee isn’t as important, but I really do think it is important this week.

With the length of these Par 4’s and Par 5’s, the approach shot into the greens is going to be long so coming out of the rough is going to be tough to control it when it lands on the green.

The greens look to be tough with lots of mounds, bumps, and level changes, and the amount of rain we get this week will determine how much the players can stop or spin the ball.

The Weather: Rain will be there on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday with Thursday looking clear, however, Friday will be wet, and maybe Saturday morning as well.

Favorite Holes

Hole 4 Par 4 372 Yards

Outside of the Par 3’s, this is one of the few holes where players should have a short wedge into the green. The fairway narrows around 300 yards, so I expect a lot of 3- wood drives. From there, the best wedge shots will set up birdies so the shorter players off the tee will have this hole circled as one to take advantage of.

Hole 16 Par 4 508 Yards

This hole looks extremely hard. The tee shot is brutal as the fairway is tight, and there are rough and trees on both sides that will make approach shots almost impossible. The green is huge, and it has some big, sweeping slopes so just hitting the green doesn’t guarantee a 1 or 2 putt. Expect bogeys on this one for sure.

Hole 18 Par 5

It’s a great finishing hole as it’s reachable if the drive is right. The fairway bends to the right, and players have to hit the fairway in order to get there in two, but we could see a lot of drama if the score is close on Sunday. The green is massive so the pin placement will be drastically different every day.

2024 PGA Championship Picks, Predictions and Betting Odds | How to Bet PGA Championship | Tee Time

2024 PGA Championship Field

Top 10 Total Strokes Gaines L3 Months PGA Tour

Scottie Scheffler 3.66
Hideki Matsuyama 3.02
Xander Schauffele 2.89
Rory McIlroy 2.29
Wyndham Clark 2.09
Ludvig Aberg 1.94
Russell Henley 1.78
Alex Noren 1.70
Denny McCarthy 1.68
Sahith Theegala 1.64

2024 PGA Championship: Players That Can Trip You Up

Jon Rahm

He was in this category at The Masters, and he finished 45th, well below value, and I think he struggles again.

He looked like he was putting too much pressure on himself, and his game has absolutely fallen off since joining LIV.

I’ve watched him play on LIV, and he’s not the same guy that we remember from the PGA Tour. He’s been sloppy, and this course will eat up sloppy players.

It’s interesting that he’s finished 50th and 48th in the last two PGA Championships, and I know those are different courses but PGA Championship courses have a lot of similarities so I don’t think it’s nothing. He’s the third-highest betting favorite, and there’s no chance I’m betting on him this week.

Brooks Koepka

I don’t trust any of these LIV guys who are priced so high. Koepka is coming off a win at the last LIV event, and he’s the defending champion of the PGA Championship, but I still don’t trust him.

The course that he won at on the LIV Tour was a bizarre course that is nothing like this course, and we saw him at The Masters finishing 45th.

He’s the 5th highest favorite, and outside of the last LIV event I haven’t been impressed with his game, and now he’s a betting favorite at one of the toughest courses they’ll play at all season. I don’t see it. I won’t bet on him this week.

Will Zalatoris

I am stunned that he’s priced in the Top 20. He’s clearly not physically close to 100% as he withdrew from a tournament a couple of weeks ago, and he just finished 60th out of 62 players last week at a long course.

This course this week is longer and tougher, and I think just making the cut would be a solid finish for him.

This course requires distance off the tee and long approaches, and with his back issues, I think it’s a massive struggle for him. In the last three months he’s -0.35 strokes gained putting, and he hasn’t been driving the ball long.

2024 PGA Championship: DraftKings Darlings

I don’t expect low scores this week so I’m targeting guys who will avoid big bogey runs, and who can grind out pars when necessary.

I don’t see a lot of birdies and consecutive birdie bonuses this week so I’m looking at guys who won’t cost us negative points with a run of bad holes.

Taylor Moore $6200

He just keeps performing well as he’s made every single cut this year, and he’s above average in driving distance which should help him make the cut again this week. His putting is his only weak spot, but he’s only +0.04 total strokes gained in that category in the last three months. He continues to be very undervalued in DFS.

Denny McCarthy $6300

He’s made the cut in 11 out of 12 tournaments this year, and his strength is putting, not necessarily length, but he finished 6th last week at a long course so I like him to make the cut again this week, and get us weekend points. He’s 9th in total strokes gained in the last three months so I feel like this is the best bargain in DFS this month

Byeong Hun An $7800

It’s a short sample size, but he’s just finished 4th and 3rd in back-to-back weeks, and finishing 3rd at last week’s event, a long course, should set him up well this week. He’s been a bit inconsistent this season, but I’ll hope he continues his hot play at least one more week.

Rest of Lineup: Tommy Fleetwood $8700, Bryson DeChambeau $9600, Xander Schauffele $10,900

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