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The Sentry Tournament of Champions Predictions, Free Picks and Odds January 4-7

Scottie Scheffler prepares for Charles Schwab Challenge

The Sentry Tournament of Champions Betting Preview

WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on The Sentry Tournament of Champions teeing off from Plantation Course Kapalua in Maui, Hawaii. Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, golfers to fade and other expert picks surrounding The Sentry Tournament of Champions starting January 4th!

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The Sentry Tournament of ChampionsThe Sentry Tournament of Champions Betting Notes
When:January 4-7
Where:Plantation Course Kapalua in Maui, Hawaii
Defending Champ:Jon Rahm
Current Favorite:Scottie Scheffler (+550 at DraftKings)
TV:Golf Channel

The Sentry Tournament of Champions Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuelDraftKings and others)

The Sentry Tournament of Champions odds board

The Sentry Tournament of Champions Betting Preview

The PGA Tour returns for the 2024 season with the first of eight Signature Events of the season. The prize purse has been upped to $20M with the winner taking home a whopping $3.6M. Plenty to play for in the first event of the new year.

59 players are in the field this week as only winners from the extended 2022-23 season and those that finished in the Top-50 of the FedexCup Playoffs qualified. Of those qualified, only Rory McIlroy is not in the field.

Though, that does come with an asterisk as technically Jon Rahm would be qualified if not for his big move to LIV Golf last month. I’m not going to lie, the field feels different without him. He is the first player in my opinion to make an actual impact with his absence.

There is no cut this week as all players are guaranteed four rounds to work themselves back into competitive shape. It’s hard to find a lot of info on how the players spent their off-season’s as some in the field have been playing, while others have not.

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The course always plays easy relative to par with winning scores seemingly always at least 20-under par. Two years ago, Cameron Smith beat John Rahm at a record 34-under, while last year Rahm got his revenge chasing down Collin Morikawa in the final round, who started the day six shots clear of the field. Perhaps it is Morikawa’s turn to avenge his loss this year.

The reason scores are low is the course features very wide fairways and very large greens. Hard to find too much trouble, especially when the wind isn’t blowing.

The course seems long by the yardage on the scorecard at roughly 7,600 yards, but it doesn’t play that way with a lot of elevation change that helps shorten the playing yardage. The Plantation Course is also unique as a Par-73 with only three par 3s to go along with four par 5s.

Weather looks nearly identical all four days with temperatures reaching the low 80s, winds mild at 10-15 mph and rain unlikely to threaten. Without the course’s only defense, expect players to go low once again this year.

The Sentry Tournament of Champions Outright Winner: Collin Morikawa +1400 (Bet365)

From Nick Borrman:

I would be very surprised to not see one of the Top-10 on the board win this event, and I have circled Collin Morikawa to avenge his Sunday collapse last year.

While Morikawa’s struggles (to win) were documented the last two seasons, he played great in the fall and perhaps regained the confidence to win with an easy victory at the ZOZO Championship in October.

Most impressively, Morikawa only lost strokes putting twice in his last ten starts which has always been his Achilles heel. He had just been able to ball-strike so much better than anyone else that even mediocre putting was good enough to win. Now, if he begins regularly gaining strokes with the flat stick, he will be in contention every time he tees it up.

Morikawa ranked 21st SG Off the Tee last season despite ranking 134th in Distance while he also ranked 2nd in SG Approach. Expect a barrage of birdie looks from Morikawa this week and if he can just perform slightly better than average on the greens, he can win on Sunday.

The Sentry Tournament of Champions Top-20 Finish: Cam Davis +150 Fitzpatrick (FanDuel or DraftKings)

With the field very top-heavy this week, I’m digging a little deeper to find someone who can make a run to into the top one-third of the field.

Cam Davis had one of the strongest fall finishes of anyone on Tour. Going back to the 3M Open at the end of July, Davis finished in the Top-12 in seven of his last nine starts including strong fields like the first Playoff event, FedEx St. Jude Championship and the previously mentioned ZOZO Championship. He also played more recently than many in the field as he teed it up twice in November/December on the DP World Tour.

Davis wasn’t flashing brilliance in any one category, but he was gaining strokes in all categories as his well-balanced game let him contend at all sorts of tracks with different strength fields.

Davis has only qualified for this event once before, finishing T-10 just last year. That should help him successfully navigate around the venue again this week.

See you next week for the Sony Open in Hawaii!

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