Arnold Palmer Invitational Free Picks, Predictions and DFS Lineup March 7-10

Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview

WagerTalk golf handicapper Andy Lang offers his thoughts on the the Arnold Palmer Invitational teeing off from Bay Hill Golf Course in Orlando, FL. Andy discusses his DraftKings Darlings, golfers to who can trip you up and the course and more surrounding the Arnold Palmer Invitational starting March 7th!

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Arnold Palmer Invitational	Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Notes
When:	March 7-10
Where:	Bay Hill Golf Course in Orlando, FL
Defending Champ:	Kurt Kitayama
Current Favorite:	Scottie Scheffler (+650 at DraftKings)
TV:	Golf Channel, NBC

Arnold Palmer Invitational Course: Bay Hill Golf Course in Orlando, FL

This course is normally one of the top 7 hardest courses of the year so I don’t expect this to be a birdie-fest.

The greens can be fast, but there is rain in the forecast on Tuesday/Wednesday so that should help players control the ball a bit more on approaches.

The rough is grown out so inaccuracies off the tee will be punished, and there are nine holes where water is in play.

Three of the Par 5’s play at 550+ yards, and the wind looks like it will be kicking up on the weekend so this could be a situation where playing par golf on the weekend could be good enough to put a player in contention to win.

It’s not a course that can be purely overpowered, but as accuracy is a bit more important off the tee, and with the difficulty of the wind and how difficult hitting the ball close to the hole can be, it will probably come down to putting and who can make some big putts from outside of 12 feet throughout the week.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Field

It’s a stacked field with all the big names on the PGA Tour playing this week including Scheffler, Rory, Cantlay, Hovland, Schauffele, defending Champion Kurt Kityama and more.

With so many big names this week, it’s hard to imagine another longshot winner this week, but 2024 has taught us to not be surprised by anyone taking home a win.

I’m interested to see how Will Zalatoris looks this week after his runner-up last week, and I’m interested to see if Shane Lowry can have another top 10 finish after his 4th place last week.

Top 10 Total Strokes Gained Last Three Months

Scottie Scheffler 2.80
Justin Thomas 2.33
Xander Schauffele 2.32
Jordan Spieth 2.22
Sam Burns 1.93
Collin Morikawa 1.84
Rory McIlroy 1.79
Mattheiu Pavon 1.79
Adam Scott 1.69
Byeong Hun An 1.56

Arnold Palmer Invitational: Players That Can Trip You Up

Rory McIlory

He finished 21st last week, well below value, and I know he loves playing here as his course history is fantastic, but his three finishes on the PGA tour this season are 21st, 24th, and 66th.

In the last three months, he is 19th in total strokes gained in this weeks field, and really the only strong point of his game right now is the driving. HIs putting is really bad, approaches are below average, no way I’m betting on him this week.

Xander Schauffele

He’s been great this seay finishing top 10 in four out of five events, but he was 39th here last year, and didn’t play here the two previous years, and before that finished 24th.

There’s something a bit odd about Schauffele’s history at this event, and I wonder if he doesn’t play here often because he doesn’t like the course.

He’s priced as a Top 5 favorite, and that’s too step of a price for something who rarely plays here, and isn’t good when does play here.

Viktor Hovland

He’s finished 2nd and 10th the last two years here, but he hasn’t finished better than 19th this year, and his total strokes gained this year are +1.07 which is 26 spots worse than #1 Scottie Scheffler.

I’m going to need to see top 5 upside on him before I wager on him, and with him being priced as a Top 5 golfer this week it will be a hard pass for me.

Cognizant Classic: DraftKings Darlings

Erik Van Rooyen $6600

He doesn’t have good course history here, but ht’e finished 2nd and 8th the last two weeks so he’s certainly in a groove, and he’s made the cut in six out of seven tourneys this year. At $6600, his price is worth it if can keep up his good form.

Emiliano Grillo $6900

Grillo has made the cut in all seven tournaments this year, and he finished 39th here last year. He’s played here six times, and he’s made the cut in five years with the other being a DQ.

Harris English $7300

English has made the cut in all six tourneys in 2024, and he finished 17th or better in four of those tournaments. He finished 2nd here last year so he’s in good form and he has upside here.

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