THE PLAYERS Championship Predictions, Best Bets, Free Picks and Odds March 14-17
THE PLAYERS Championship Betting Preview
WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on THE PLAYERS Championship teeing off from Players Stadium Course in Ponte Vedra Beach, FL. Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, golfers to fade and other expert picks surrounding THE PLAYERS Championship starting March 14th!
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| THE PLAYERS Championship | THE PLAYERS Championship Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| When: | March 14-17 |
| Where: | Players Stadium Course in Ponte Vedra Beach, FL |
| Defending Champ: | Scottie Scheffler |
| Current Favorite: | Scottie Scheffler (+500 at DraftKings) |
| TV: | Golf Channel, NBC |
THE PLAYERS Championship Odds Board
Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel , DraftKings and others)
THE PLAYERS Championship Betting Preview
The logo says it all. This is the 50th edition of THE PLAYERS with the biggest purse in history as the winner will grab a $4.5M payday.
TPC Sawgrass is designed by the notorious Pete Dye and presents one of the toughest challenges the players face every season. Very much like last week at Bay Hill, we usually don’t see too many players reach double-digit under par.
Last year Scheffler ran away with it at 17-under, but he was one of only four players to reach 10-under. That score was also the 2nd lowest total dating back to 1996, which gives you an idea of how rare it is to reach that number.
The track plays as a stock par-72 measuring a little over 7,200 yards, so it’s not one of the longest courses the guys face all year. But length isn’t Dye’s shtick.
Dye prioritizes accuracy over length and all his courses are designed to reward good shots while penalizing even slightly errant shots.
Birdies can be found with well struck irons but miss on approach by a just a few feet and double bogey quickly comes into play. Of course, there is no better example of that than the famous 17th hole island green par 3.
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Last week at Bay Hill, the best ball-strikers in the field rose to the top by the end of the tournament with the best in the business claiming victory.
This week will be more of the same so it’s no wonder Scottie Scheffler is an even shorter favorite despite the field more than doubling in size.
While it’s easy to want to jump all in on Scottie again this week, the stark reminder you need to hear is that no PLAYERS Champion has ever repeated. Streaks of course are meant to be broken, but that one is hard to ignore.
Here are some more important trends to pay attention to this week:
Course Experience
- Aside from the inaugural addition, there have only been two first-time winners of this event.
- 15 of the last 16 winners finished at least 23rd in a previous PLAYERS.
- 10 of the last 13 winners played in at least five previous PLAYERS.
Current Form
- Each of the last 25 winners has made the cut in their previous start.
- 17 of the last 19 winners ranked in the top 35 in SG Approach over the prior 12 months.
- 10 of the last 12 winners ranked in the top 45 in SG Around the Green over the previous 12 months.
- 11 of the last 12 winners finished at least 22nd in their previous start.
And finally, one more than is entirely out of the players’ control. 14 of the last 16 winners have played in the Thursday AM / Friday PM wave. Another anti-Scottie streak. Coincidence? You decide.
If those above trends didn’t highlight it for you, I’ll spell it out simply. Zero in on elite iron players that also have strong short games. Driving and putting take a back seat this week.
I mean, Scheffler ranked 48th in SG Putting last year and still won by five, but his +4.29 SG T2G nearly lapped the field as Tom Hoge, who finished T3, was 2nd by a wide margin at +2.93.
Weather looks great all week with only a slight chance of Thunderstorms on Friday afternoon. Temperatures will be around 80 degrees all week so don’t expect any stark tee time wave advantages like we saw just a couple years ago.
THE PLAYERS Championship Outright Winner: Will Zalatoris +3000 (FanDuel or PointsBet)
From Nick Borrman:
When you talk about ball-strikers, aside from Scottie, the first person that comes to mind is Will Zalatoris. He has sort of been forgotten about after having back surgery last April and missing the remainder of the 2023 season.
He returned to action in the unofficial Hero World Challenge in December where he finished dead last. He then missed the cut in his first official start at the Sony Open but showed signs of life the following week at the American Express with a T34.
It made all the sense in the world to wait and see on Willy Z, but if you haven’t already jumped back on the bandwagon, now is the time.
Zalatoris finished T13 at the Farmers Insurance Open as has since followed that up with a T2 at The Genesis Invitational and a T4 last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. At one point on Saturday, Zalatoris had a 5-stroke lead before two double bogeys on the back nine saw that disappear.
Will’s putting stroke gets a lot of attention because, well, it ain’t pretty. But it’s been very effective the last four weeks, gaining +0.57 strokes gained per round. Much like we saw from Scheffler last week, if Zalatoris gains strokes putting, he will contend.
THE PLAYERS Championship Top-20 Finish: Russell Henley +210 (Bet365)
Henley played great last week at the API and I like him to carry that over this week. Henley fits the profile of those likely to contend.
He lacks distance off the tee, but that doesn’t matter here as I already mentioned Pete Dye designs reward accuracy and Henley certainly has that. Avoiding trouble is more important than making bogeys around Sawgrass.
Dating back the THE PLAYERS last year, Henley has played in 21 events and finished in the Top-20 in 14 of them (67%).
He gains strokes both off the tee and approach nearly every time he tees it up while his short game is also on point and last week was evidence of that going a perfect 10-for-10 in sand saves.
Finally, Henley has finished in the Top-20 here each of the last two years and of course, has the important Thursday AM tee time.
See you next week for the Valspar Championship!
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