Texas vs Washington Picks, Best Bets: College Football Playoff Sugar Bowl Predictions

Texas Longhorns vs Washington Huskies Best Bets : Sugar Bowl CFP Analysis & Predictions

Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers some sweet betting picks on the college football playoff at the Sugar Bowl being played on January 1st, between Texas & Washington. What are his takeaways and things to watch when considering betting? Find top predictions here.

Texas nearly ran the table, losing only in the last seconds to Oklahoma.  There were three close calls, two of which were vs. subpar teams. 

Washington ran the table, winning five close games.  They have the lowest Power Rating of the four finalists, but that offense is scary, and has proven tough to stop with the game on the line.  This is a really good matchup.  

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Sugar Bowl CFP Predictions and Best Bets: Texas Offense

Texas scored 26 or more points in every game, averaging 39 for the season.  QB Ewers has a natural and very smooth delivery and the football tends to land softly into the hands of his receivers. 

I haven’t seen him fire the ball into tight spaces, and will be watching that for NFL draft study.  With an expected clean pocket, I have him completing 24 passes for close to 300 yards. 

Lead RB Brooks was lost for the season, but the Texas yards-per-carry average didn’t change much.  Highly touted RB Baxter is beginning to find his stride and could carry a heavier workload, given Washington’s run defense is the one weak link for either team. 

Can he top 100 yards?  RB Blue has nearly shared the load of late.  I’d go more Baxter in this spot, while noting that the two RB’s have combined for 19 receptions in the past three games.  There’s NFL talent at WR and at TE.  Lead WR Worthy was in a walking boot after the Big 12 title game.  How healthy will he be?  I’m a big fan of TE Sanders and he has carried a high yards-per-reception figure.

Huskies Defense

Defensively, Texas was strong at times, but yielded 24 or more points to several offenses, and Washington has the type of offense to easily exceed that number.  I boldly projected a 3.5 per carry rush defense, and Texas bettered that, at 3.3/95 yards allowed per game. 

Alabama ran 35-107.  Oklahoma ran 43-201.  Washington can achieve run-pass balance with RB Johnson, but should be held closer to 4.0 per carry in this spot.  Their 60% pass defense was on my projections.  Alabama was 14-27.  Oklahoma was 23-38.  Texas Tech was 19-36. 

Penix will be tough to defend, but it hasn’t been easy to be consistent vs. this defense.  Kicking was 28-34.  34 attempts is a surprise to me, and could be a red flag that the Longhorns are not finishing drives.  The sack ratio was 32-26 (allowed only 17 sacks a year ago).  

Sugar Bowl CFP Video Picks

Sugar Bowl Picks: Can Washington Prevail in the Semifinal?

Washington “slumped” to scoring just under 38 points per game, with ASU (15), OSU (22) and WSU (24) their lowest outputs.  QB Penix hit 66% with a 33-9 ratio. 

I have four outings to use for comparison sakes.  Penix was 24-42 vs. Utah, 49-76 in the two games vs. Oregon, and had a bad game at OSU (13-28), where that defense continually frustrated him.  Those add up to 86-146, which is under 60%. 

Penix in my eyes is a rhythm QB.  When hot, he can beat those numbers, but I see this as one of the important keys to this game.  He will be throwing to two electric WR’s.  Odunze is almost impossible to stop.  McMillon regained his health and went 14-157 in his last two games. 

WR Polk and TE Westover make this unit even better.  RB Johnson (5.55 per carry) had a few breakout games and was a finisher several times, closing out wins.  In two games vs. Oregon, he ran 48-252.  He was stout vs. OSU at 16-89.  In other games vs. strong teams, he was 23-104 vs. Utah and 16-91 vs. Arizona.  Texas faces a very balanced Washington offense. 

OK Washington Defense

Defensively, Washington allowed 27 points per game vs. PAC 12 opponents.  For the season they allowed 18 rushing TD’s and a 40% 3^rd down success rate.  They were not as good as I expected vs. the run, allowing 4.5 per carry.  They were better than expected vs. the pass, coming in at 59.7% vs. a strong slate of PAC 12 QB’s. 

Based on these figures, Texas will also achieve run-pass balance.  Kicking was decent at 13-17.   In 2022 the sack ratio was 35-7.  This year I was quite surprised to see defensive sacks drop, all the way down to 19.  That’s Washington’s red flag.  Pass protection remained great (11 sacks allowed).  

Sugar Bowl Best Bets – The Keys to The Game:

Texas must establish the run.  Their RB’s are not quite as good as Washington’s Johnson, but Washington’s run defense is the more vulnerable unit.  How does Texas stop Odunze?  Conversely, how does Washington stop TE Sanders if they are concerned with all the speed Texas has at WR? 

Why has Washington not been more efficient at rushing the QB?  Ewers would be deadly with a clean pocket.  Finally, what’s going on with Texas in the redzone?  They attempted 18 field goals INSIDE 40 yards.  Washington only attempted 17 total field goals.  Settling for field goals in this game may not be enough.

CFP Semifinal Picks & Predictions – The Sugar Bowl

Will Penix be streaky vs. this defense, going through periods where his timing is off?  If I’m right, I get Texas by seven points. 

My concerns are what if Penix finds his rhythm (possible, if the pass rush is slowed down), and what if Texas continues to get bogged down in the red zone.  One final note: Keep an eye out as to the health of Texas WR Worthy, as he’s their #1 target.  This should be an entertaining and fun game to watch play out

The Pick: Sugar Bowl CFP Expert Betting Recommendation!

Two bowl indicators pick Texas, and that will be my pick (current line -3.5/4).  I’m concerned about Washington’s run defense, and this could be a sweet spot for RB Baxter. 

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