John Deere Classic Predictions and Best Bets

John Deere Classic Betting Preview

John Deere Classic picks from WagerTalk golf handicapper Andy Lang are available before golfers tee off from TPC Deere Run in Silvis, IL! Andy discusses his predictions, picks, who can trip you up, the course and more surrounding the John Deere Classic starting July 2!

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John Deere Classic	John Deere Classic Betting Notes
When:	July 2-5
Where:	TPC Deere Run in Silvis, IL
Defending Champ:	Brian Campbell
Current Favorite:	Ben Griffin (+1500 at DraftKings)
TV:	CBS, Golf Channel, Paramount+

John Deere Classic Course: TPC Deere Run

The John Deere Classic returns to TPC Deere Run, one of the PGA Tour’s most birdie-friendly venues. This par-71 layout measures just over 7,250 yards and features rolling fairways, elevation changes, and large Bentgrass greens that encourage aggressive play.

While the course offers plenty of scoring opportunities, players still need to be precise with their wedges and short irons to take full advantage.

TPC Deere Run rewards players who consistently give themselves birdie chances. Reachable par-5s, several short par-4s, and receptive greens often lead to winning scores well beyond 20- under par.

Distance is helpful, but it’s far from a requirement, as many past champions have relied on elite iron play and hot putting rather than overpowering the course.

Although low scores are expected, the course can still punish mistakes with strategically placed bunkers, creeks, and thick rough lining several holes.

The closing stretch offers opportunities to make a late charge, but players must avoid careless errors if they want to stay in contention. Expect another shootout where aggressive golf, sharp approach play, and a confident putter will determine this year’s champion.

John Deere Classic: Players That Can Trip You Up

Keith Mitchell is being priced like a Top 4 contender, but the profile just doesn’t support it. His putting has been mediocre at +0.17 strokes gained over the last three months, and that’s simply not good enough on a course where birdie conversion is critical. He also hasn’t finished better than 18th here in his last three appearances. At this number, you’re paying for upside that hasn’t translated to this venue. He’s an easy fade.

Chris Gotterup had to be near the top of the odds board because of the field, but I’m still not buying it. His recent finishes of 27th, 43rd, and 30th don’t resemble the form of a betting favorite.

Course history doesn’t help either, with a 21st and a missed cut in his last two appearances. Just like last week, his biggest weapon—elite driving distance—is largely neutralized on a shorter course where precision matters more than power. I don’t see the value.

Jordan Spieth is another big name I’m staying away from this week. His putting has completely abandoned him over the last month, losing -0.64 strokes gained, one of the worst marks in the field.

That’s especially concerning on a course where you have to make birdies to contend. He’s also finished outside the Top 50 in each of his last three tournaments, showing very little positive momentum. Until the putter heats back up, he’s a fade.

John Deere Classic: DraftKings Darlings

Emiliano Grillo ($7,300) has been one of the most reliable course horses in this field. He finished runner-up here last year and was also runner-up in 2022, proving this layout fits his game perfectly.

He enters the week on four straight made cuts, including finishes of 20th and 23rd in his last two starts. His putter has also come alive, gaining +0.41 strokes over the last 30 days, and his driving accuracy remains one of his biggest strengths. With form and elite course history, Grillo is a tremendous value.

Kevin Yu ($7,300) clearly loves this golf course, posting finishes of 21st, 20th, and 6th over the last three years. The putter has been the one concern this season, but his driving and approach play have been outstanding, consistently giving him birdie opportunities.

Sometimes course comfort outweighs a statistical weakness, and that could easily be the case here. At this price, Yu has plenty of upside if the putter cooperates just enough.

Denny McCarthy ($8,200) is one of the safest DFS plays in the field thanks to his incredible track record at this event. He’s finished inside the Top 11 in four straight appearances and comes in off a solid 14th-place finish last week.

As always, the putter is his biggest weapon, gaining +0.77 strokes over the last three months, and when he gets rolling on the greens, he can contend with anyone. Course history plus elite putting make McCarthy a premium DFS target this week.

Rest Of Lineup: Davis Thompson $8000, Michael Thorbjornsen $9000, Jackson Koivun $9400

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