UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Duncan Picks, Predictions and Odds April 4, 2026

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC Fight Night picks and predictions come from WagerTalk UFC handicapper Andy Lang for April 4, 2026 with the main event headlined by Renato Moincano vs Chris Duncan in a lightweight fight. The main card starts up at 8:00pm ET from the Meta APEX, Las Vegas, NV.

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Renato Moincano vs Chris Duncan: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, April 4	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Renato Moincano +145 vs Chris Duncan -175
Rounds:	2.5 (Over +110 / Under -140)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 8:00pm ET / 5:00pm PT
Arena:	Meta APEX, Las Vegas, NV
TV:	Paramount+

UFC Fight Night Undercard Predictions

Tabatha Ricci -115 vs Virna Jandiroba -105 

Both fighters rely heavily on wrestling and clinch work, and both have strong cardio and  durability. This likely comes down to who creates the bigger moments.

Ricci has momentum coming off a win over Ribas, while Jandiroba is coming off a grueling loss to Dern and may not be fully recovered physically or mentally. I’ll side with Ricci to edge this fight. 

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev -1600 vs Brendson Ribeiro +800 

Yakhyaev is a dangerous prospect training with elite fighters and has already shown dominant  performances in quick succession. His pressure, takedowns, and ground game are elite.

Ribeiro has been finished in the first round in two straight fights and offers little resistance. The only way  to play this is Yakhyaev by first-round finish. 

Ethyn Ewing -150 vs Rafael Estevam +125 

Ewing pulled off a big upset in his debut, but the performance was aided by a poor opponent showing. He has decent striking and cardio but hasn’t shown much ground game.

Estevam is undefeated at 14-0 and brings a more complete skill set. He should be able to secure takedowns and control the fight on the ground. Estevam is the pick. 

Manolo Zecchini +650 vs Tommy McMillen -1000 

This is a low-level fight where the UFC is trying to get McMillen a win. He’s aggressive and high energy but lacks defense and polish.

Zecchini hasn’t fought in nearly two years and is also very flawed, but at these odds the value is on the underdog. It’s Zecchini or pass. 

Jose Delano -400 vs Robert Ruchala +310 

Delano has strong cardio, movement, and pressure, and looks like a solid prospect despite coming off Contender Series. Ruchala’s debut wasn’t impressive — he looked slow and  defensively vulnerable.

Delano should be more efficient on the feet and control the fight with his movement. Delano is the pick. 

Alessandro Costa -400 vs Stewart Nicoll +310 

Costa is in a great spot. He’s well-rounded with solid striking and decent grappling, and his losses have come against strong competition.

Nicoll has looked like a fraud at the UFC level with poor striking and an underwhelming ground game. Costa should dominate this fight.

Darrius Flowers +180 vs Lando Vannata -220 

Vannata hasn’t fought in two years and hasn’t shown much improvement. His striking and wrestling are both questionable.

Flowers also has major limitations and struggles to generate offense. This is a low-level fight with little betting value, but Flowers at plus money would be the lean. 

Alice Pereira -125 vs Hailey Cowan +105 

This feels like Cowan’s last chance in the UFC. She has struggled with injuries and inactivity, but at least has some striking and clinch ability.

Pereira is very limited with no real strengths and struggles in all areas. Neither fighter is impressive, but Cowan is the side. 

Guilherme Pat -115 vs Thomas Petersen -105 

Pat is 31 with limited experience and showed little upside in his debut, relying heavily on clinch control. Petersen isn’t elite but is more well-rounded and has a wrestling edge if needed. This  projects as a slow, low-damage fight. Best play is fight to go the distance. 

Azamat Bekoev -600 vs Tresean Gore +430 

Bekoev’s last loss came against an improved opponent, so it’s not overly concerning. Gore lacks striking and isn’t an effective wrestler despite relying on it.

Bekoev has significant power and should eventually land something big. Bekoev by KO. 

Dione Barbosa -150 vs Melissa Gatto +125 

Barbosa is a grinder but struggles with volume and can be controlled by stronger opponents. She didn’t look impressive even in her last win.

Gatto hasn’t fought in nearly two years, but she has better striking, length, and a more diverse skill set. Barbosa is overpriced based on a questionable win. Gatto or pass.

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Chris Duncan -175 vs Renato Moicano +145

Duncan is my favorite pick on the card. He’s well-rounded with striking, wrestling, and  submission ability, and he’s won four straight fights showing durability and finishing upside. 

Moicano has openly said he’s just fighting for paychecks, is dealing with injuries, and lacks dangerous striking.

He needs this fight on the ground, but Duncan should be able to defend those attempts. Moicano’s recent performances have been poor. Duncan has all the upside and should  get the win.

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