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UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs Murphy Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds May 18

UFC Fight Night Picks and Predictions

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night predictions and picks for May 18th with Edson Barboza and Lerone Murphy headlining the main event in a featherweight fight. The main card starts up at 7:00pm ET from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV.

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Edson Barboza vs Lerone Murphy: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, May 18UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:Edson Barboza +125 vs Lerone Murphy -150
Rounds:3.5 Rounds (Over -160 / Under +125)
Fight Time:Main Card Starts at 7:00pm ET / 4:00pm PT
Arena:UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV

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UFC Fight Night Predictions

Emily Ducote -310 v Vanessa Demopoulos +250

This line is baffling to me. Ducote is decent on the feet, but her striking defense isn’t exactly elite, and she doesn’t have a ground game so I don’t know where the -310 comes from.

Demopoulos is coming off a win but make no mistake…she 100% lost that fight. The judges were insane in that fight. However, Demopoulos has cardio for days, and her ground game is way better than Ducote’s.

If Demopoulos can get it to the ground, she’s got a big advantage, and while Ducote should have the more powerful strikes, I think the activity of Demopoulos is going to look better in the later rounds. This is a great spot for an underdog to cash.

Kleydon Rodrigues -155 v Alatengheili +130

I’m surprised Rodrigues is the favorite here as he has big holes in his game. He’s 1-2 in the UFC with his win being over Shannon Ross, who is terrible. He lost a close split decision against Vergara, and he did get beat up pretty bad on the feet.

He got dominated on the ground in his last fight and we didn’t get to see him do anything offensively as Basharat controlled him from the beginning.

I don’t see a lot of upside with him, but Alateng doesn’t have a lot of upside either. He’s low volume on the feet, and like Rodrigues he really hasn’t beaten anyone impressive.

It’s a pretty bad fight, but I’m not laying juice on Rodrigues. It’s dog or pass in this one, but I do think this fight goes the distance as I don’t see either guy having the ability to finish the other.

Piera Rodriguez -175 v Ariane Carnelossi +145

No chance I’m laying -175 on Rodriguez. Both women have problems with takedown defense, and they aren’t great on the feet so it appears to be a pretty even fight for me.

‘Carnelossi always carries a lot of muscle, and it causes her cardio problems later in the fight, but she’ll be stronger than Rodriguez, and that should help her in the clinch.

Rodriguez is probably more crisp in a standup fight, but I can see Carnelossi getting a takedown and winning a couple of close rounds. The price doesn’t reflect how close this fight is going to be IMHO so I’ll take Carnelossi at plus money.

Abus Magomedov -270 v Warlley Alves +220

Both these guys need a win as they’ve both dropped several fights in a row, and the best way to play this fight is to not go the distance or under 2.5 rounds.

I’m assuming it will be juicy so it’s a parlay piece. Abus is a powerful striker, but only for a round or so, and then he gasses out quickly.

Alves is a striker who looked amazing four fights ago against Lazzez, but that fight looks to be the exception as he’s dropped three straight, and two of them were knockout losses.

Alves striking defense has looked terrible, and combine that with Magomedov’s cardio issues, I don’t see how this gets to decision. If you’re a live bettor, see if Alves can survive the first round, and as soon as Abus starts to get tired, fire away on Alves.

Melissa Gatto -410 v Tameries Vidal +320

Vidal disappointed in her last fight as she appeared to be very careful to not gas herself, but she ended up not throwing enough volume on her strikes, and not enough power either.

She’s strong and tough, but not very crisp and technical. Gatto has lost two close fights, and she just doesn’t seem to have the intensity or aggression, and it’s cost her.

Her skillset is better than Vidal, there’s no question, but is it enough to overcome her lack of activity? I think she’ll pull out the decision win, but I’m not going to lay this price. Pass for me.

Oumar Sy -265 v Antonio Trocoli +215

There are too many unknowns in this fight to make a logical bet. Trocoli has fought one time since 2018, and it was in a basement against a bum.

I seriously have no idea what shape he’s in or what he’s been doing. Oumar Sy has been active and is undefeated, but the level of competition isn’t great. From what I can see Sy is the rightful favorite, but there are too many questions going into this fight for me. Pass.

Tom Nolan -470 v Victor Martinez +360

Nolan should KO Martinez here. Both guys are coming off of Contender Series, and I wasn’t impressed with Martinez on Contender Series, and sure enough, he got finished in round one in his UFC debut against Jordan Leavitt.

His striking looks sloppy and slow, and Nolan is a much more dynamic striker. Nolan got smoked by Motta in his UFC debut, and he needs massive work on his striking defense, but Martinez isn’t the guy to exploit it.

The holes in Nolan’s game can be worked on, but I don’t see Martinez gaining a bunch of power. Nolan by finish is the pick.

Angela Hill -155 v Luana Pinheiro +130

Hill looked really good in her last fight where she beat Denise Gomes, and it was interesting to see her work the clinch and ground game, while still maintaining good volume and cardio in the third round, and if she applies that game plan in this fight, I really like her to win.

Pinheiro is good on the feet, and she really damaged up Ribas in her last fight until she got tired in the third which led to her getting finished.

Hill has really good fight IQ, and I think she’ll come in with a solid game plan to take away the striking of Pinheiro. Her last five wins are all by decision so it makes sense to take Hill to win by decision.

Adrian Yanez -360 v Vinicius Salvador +285

Yanez loses to Rob Font and Jonathan Martinez, and he drops down to fight Vinicius Salvador? Wow. Yanez lost to Font because he got too cocky and sloppy early in the fight, and losing to Jonathan Martinez because of leg kicks isn’t a surprise.

Salvador has none of the weapons that those guys have as his striking isn’t powerful or technical, and his striking defense is bad.

He fights very undisciplined, and he tries to showboat in the fights, which is just plain dumb for a guy who has lost to CJ Vergara and Victor Altimirano.

If ever there was a get right fight for a guy with the more crisp and powerful striking, it’s this one. Yanez should easily outclass Salvador in this one.

Themba Gorimbo -185 v Ramiz Brahimaj +160

Interesting matchup as Gorimbo has won two in a row as he got an incredibly quick KO over Pete Rodriguez, which was a surprise as he’s been a guy who has utilized takedowns in the UFC.

It’s important to note that he was living in his car, and not eating when he first got to the UFC, but he has support now and it looks like he’s starting to thrive.

Brahimaj has a win over Gillmore, who is terrible, but he got the early takedown and submission so he left no doubts.

This fight comes down to whether you believe in Gorimbo heating up in his career and unlocking unseen potential, and I’m leaning that way. I don’t like the price so I probably won’t bet it, but I do think Gorimbo wins.

Khaos Williams -135 v Carlston Harris +114

Khaos Williams just hasn’t looked great recently as he barely squeaked out a win against Rolando Bedoya who was a short-notice UFC debutant, and he lost to Randy Brown before that.

Wins over Miguez Baeza, Semelsberger and Alhassan aren’t aging well, and his striking just doesn’t seem to have the volume or power the last two fights.

Harris is coming off a crazy win where Jeremiah Wells was dominating him on the ground until Harris pulled out a miracle submission win.

I’m not sure Williams can exploit the bad takedown defense of Harris so this fight probably stays on the feet where Williams is probably better, despite his recent woes.

I’m not excited to bet on Khaos, but Harris isn’t very good, and his cardio has been pretty suspect recently. The bet is Khaos Williams, but you’ll be nervous throughout the fight.

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Edson Barboza +125 vs Lerone Murphy -150

Neither of these guys excite me, but Murphy should get the win here. Barboza is coming off a nice win against Yusuff, but I didn’t think he looked amazing as Yusuff did damage to him on the feet, but the lack of volume from Yusuff down the stretch handed the fight to Barboza.

I don’t think Murphy will allow Barboza to outstrike him, and win the clinch and takedown battles though as I like Murphy’s crispness and technique on his punches and kicks.

Murphy should be the quicker fighter, and the biggest worry I have with him is his lackluster strength of competition, and maybe Barboza can take him into deeper waters than what he’s been used to, but I think Murphy’s athleticism and quickness is just going to look better for the judges.

I can’t say I’m confident enough to bet on this fight, but I do love the overs in this fight. Both guys are durable, and I haven’t seen them really going for the big finish in their last few fights. The only bet I would consider making is an over or a fight goes the distance prop.


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