UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs Pyfer Picks, Predictions and Odds March 28, 2026

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC Fight Night picks and predictions come from WagerTalk UFC handicapper Andy Lang for March 28, 2026 with the main event headlined by Israel Adesanya vs Joe Pyfer in a middleweight fight. The main card starts up at 8:00pm ET from Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle, WA.

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Israel Adesanya vs Joe Pyfer: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, March 28	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Israel Adesanya -150 vs Joe Pyfer +125
Rounds:	3.5 (Over -135 / Under +105)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 8:00pm ET / 5:00pm PT
Arena:	Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle, WA
TV:	Paramount+

UFC Fight Night Undercard Predictions

Alexa Grasso +124 vs Maycee Barber -158

Barber has had issues outside the cage, both physically and mentally, but if she’s healthy she should win. She’s very physical with her wrestling and clinch work, which should give Grasso problems.

Grasso likely has the edge in striking, but if Barber gets one takedown she can control the fight. Best bet here is the fight to go the distance.

Julian Erosa +235 vs Lerryan Douglas -320

I like Douglas, but not at this price. He’s a Contender Series winner, though his opponent was very weak. Douglas is a solid striker but can be hit, and Erosa has a dangerous submission game.

If Douglas makes one mistake, Erosa can capitalize. Douglas probably wins, but it’s a pass from a betting standpoint.

Mansur Abdul-Malik -158 vs Yousri Belgaroui +124

I wasn’t high on Belgaroui initially, but he proved me wrong with a dominant performance over Bekoev using his reach and striking.

Malik is violent, powerful, and strong in the clinch. This is a classic length vs power matchup. I’ll take Belgaroui at plus money after showing he can beat a similar style.

Kyle Nelson +118 vs Terrance McKinney -150

This is a typical McKinney fight — all or nothing early. His last seven fights have ended in the first round. If he doesn’t get the finish early, he fades badly. Nelson is durable enough to survive that early storm, and if he does, he likely wins. Nelson is the pick.

Ignacio Bahamondes -295 vs Tofiq Musayev +220

I don’t think Musayev is very good at this level. He hasn’t looked impressive in recent fights, is low volume at times, and is now 36.

Bahamondes is coming off a loss to Fiziev, who exposed him with speed and wrestling. Bahamondes should have the striking advantage at range, and Musayev may not be able to exploit his takedown defense. Bahamondes by decision.

Chase Hooper -280 vs Lance Gibson Jr +210

Gibson had a split decision in his debut against King Green, but didn’t look impressive. Low output, minimal impact on the ground, and unclear strengths.

Hooper is excellent on the ground but still questionable on the feet. If this goes to the mat, Hooper likely wins by submission.

If it stays standing, Gibson could have success. Hard to trust either side — likely a pass, with the fight going the distance as a possibility.

Marcin Tybura -104 vs Tyrell Fortune -122

This line doesn’t make much sense. Fortune has been fighting extremely weak competition recently, including older and out-of-shape opponents.

Tybura lost his last fight to a quick blitz but had been winning before that. Even at 40, his grinding wrestling style should be effective here. Tybura likely controls this fight on the ground.

Casey O’Neill -113 vs Gabriella Fernandes -113

This should be a close, low-volume fight. Fernandes has a slight edge in power, while O’Neill likely has the better ground game.

Fernandes is strong and difficult to control, making takedowns less effective. The fight likely goes the distance. Slight lean to Fernandes for having the bigger moments, but not worth betting.

Bruno Lopes +310 vs Navajo Stirling -440

The price is steep, but Stirling should win. He’s young, improving, and has solid striking with body work and some grappling ability.

He is hittable, but the UFC continues to give him favorable matchups. Lopes was knocked out badly in his last fight and appears limited at this level. Stirling by decision.

Adrian Yanez +124 vs Ricky Simon -158

Simon’s best weapon has always been wrestling, but he hasn’t been using it as much recently. If this stays standing, Yanez has the edge with faster and cleaner striking.

Yanez is coming off a close loss where an early eye poke likely affected his performance. If Simon doesn’t commit to wrestling, Yanez should win a close striking battle.

Alexia Thainara -480 vs Bruna Brasil +330

This is a straightforward matchup. Thainara has the clinch, takedowns, and ground control to dominate. Brasil lacks finishing ability and doesn’t have the tools to win rounds consistently. Thainara should control the fight from start to finish. Thainara by decision.

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Israel Adesanya vs Joe Pyfer

I believe Adesanya is done. He peaked around 2023 and has now lost three straight fights, two by finish. His durability, cardio, and explosiveness all look diminished.

Pyfer is trending in the opposite direction, winning three straight with power, durability, and improved cardio.

This line is priced like Adesanya is still in his prime, which he isn’t. Pyfer is one of my favorite picks on the card.

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