College Football Free Picks Today - Best College Football Bets September 13

8-2-1 College Football - Sean is up +17.4 units to start the College Football season off and has 3 plays up for the Saturday slate

I am not as impressed with Minnesota as others that I have heard from and have doubts within this 2-0 team. The Golden Gophers came away with a nice win against a weak Buffalo team, but I wanted to see more from them on offense against the Bulls defense. Drake Lindsey completed just 19 of 35 passes but did account for 290 yards while striking with big plays. Minnesota wants to run the football to set their offense up as shown with the 44 carries in their first game but that came with just a 3.5 yards per carry average. Running the ball 44 times is going to open up the play-action passing game, but the 3.5 yards per carry worries me as the schedule for the Gophers will continue to get more difficult as the season progresses. There is not much to go over with the defensive unit as they haven’t played anyone that has even a decent offense yet but will be tested today against a talented Cal offense.

Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele had a solid debut starting as a true freshman at a hostile environment against Oregon State while completing 20 of 30 passes with 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. Jaron continued that with a 27 for 38 the next week but did have a poor decision leading to an interception, which is going to happen with a young quarterback, but he should learn from them. Cal had a better rushing attack in their 2nd game but that came against a weak opponent in Texas Southern and this week will show a lot on wether the running game can continue and help Sagapolutele.

Both teams played weak opponents in the 2nd week of the season and am not taking much weight from either of those games. I thought Cal played a better team in Oregon State compared to Buffalo and played in a hostile environment, now Minnesota travels across the country while Cal gets a test but at home. Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has just the 2 starts in his career and will only get better with experience.

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(135) Washington State at (136) North Texas  (Game Analysis Below)  

Play Rating: FREE

Play Type: Full Game Total

Play: Total Over 59.0 (-110)

Date/Time: Sept 13, 2025 3:30 PM 

Line Provider: Consensus Line

Washington State at North Texas- (Saturday Afternoon)

Strong performances by each as North Texas took rare road trip north winning 33-30 in OT at Central Michigan while Washington State rebounded at home with 36-13 rout of San Diego State. North Texas offense again shined averaging 6.6 ypp vs. fairly stout Western Michigan defense using high octane versatile attack. Other side remains problematic as one dimensional CMU scored 30 despite being extremely one-dimensional due to their severely challenged passing game (avg 81.5 pypg). Washington State which lost abundance of talent across the board including now Oklahoma QB John Mateer found its footing in new “pro style” system led by 1st year OC Danny Freund. Team QB’s in this one are new but becoming legitimate threats. North Texas dual Drew Mestemaker operating this extreme tempo system poses concerns WSU hasn’t had to face this season. State on the other hand has dual threat packages but 3rd year soph Jaxson Potter is cerebral passing type which the re-tooled Mean Green defense hasn’t seen yet. Fundamentals favor offense here but 93 degree Denton, TX heat expected throughout game could be added burden for Pacific northwest climate-based visitor. Figure they’re still trying to restock quality depth so wearing down defensively is a distinct possibility. They have speed at the skills and a QB with rising confidence so against subpar UNT defense they likely get their share as well. Game has landing spot ticketed for key number of 61+ making this a solid “over” spot.  

PLAY: Washington State-North Texas OVER 56.5

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Notre Dame comes into this game off a loss to Miami Florida in their season opener.  The Irish also come in off a bye, so we can expect to get their best effort, especially at home.  Texas A&M hits the road off back-to-back home wins over inferior opponents - UTSA and Utah State.  This is a massive class jump for the Aggies, and they are catching a motivated opponent at a bad time.  Notre Dame handled A&M pretty easily on the road last season (23-13), and there’s nothing to suggest we won’t see a similar outcome in the rematch.  My power ratings have this game a few points higher than the market, so there’s some nice value in laying less than a touchdown with Notre Dame on Saturday night.

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Attacking the bookies behind some of our nations finest at the Air Force Academy. The Falcons face the Aggies of Utah St Saturday night at 9:45pm ET nationally televised on Fox Sports 1. Under one of the most winningest coaches in all of college football, Troy Calhoun has been money on the road. Air Force has gone (9-4) against the spread their last 13 as an away favorite. 

Air Force runs a difficult offense to prepare for without extra preparation time. Utah State had to travel back home off getting hammered by Texas A&M last Saturday and now deal with a potent option attack from the Falcons. The Academy controls the clock and grinds down Utah St. This play just missed the client card, for today's free pick bet Air Force. 

Free Pick Recap: 1-0 (+1 unit) 
Thursday- Marlins (-120) WINNER 

Checkout Drew's (100%) EARLY SATURDAY 3-For-1 CFB TV  👇

Talked more about this bet on Today's College Football Betting Show: 
 

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179) UMASS : Team Total Over 3.5 (-110)…(3%)

3% thru Over 3.5 (-120)

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North Texas is a program on the ascent in the American. This is the third season under HC Eric Morris and while the majority of the focus in Denton tends to be on the offensive side of the ball (#5 in tempo), the Mean Green's defense is much improved this season. It's that defensive improvement that is going to result in the team finally finishing a season with a winning record for Morris.

Last week's 33-30 OT win at Western Michigan was a little misleading. North Texas definitely deserved to win, as they outgained WMU 406-303. What happened was that Western Michigan benefited from some favorable field position on their scoring drives. So it probably should have been an easy North Texas win and cover in regulation. Since it wasn't, we're getting some value this week. 

QB Mestemaker has completed 66% of his passes thus far with a 5-0 TD-INT ratio. Washington State's offense is unlikely to be able to “trade points here” as they're not nearly as proficient in the passing game. Cougs QB Jaxon Potter threw 42 passes last week, three for touchdowns, but don't forget that this is an offense that only put up 13 pts against Idaho in the opener. 

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(183) Duke at (184) Tulane  (Game Analysis Below)  

Play Rating: FREE

Play Type: Full Game Total

Play: Total Over 52.5 (-110)

Date/Time: Sept 13, 2025 8:00 PM 

Line Provider: Consensus Line

Duke @ Tulane 

Duke 26 point loss last week to Illinois looks much worse than it really was 

What was brutal for Duke was the 5 turnovers they committed that resulted in 21 Illinois points 

4 of those turnovers (including the one on downs) occurred in Illinois territory (18,29,32 & 39)

Blue Devils had 438 total yards (Illinois 419) / threw for 356 & averaged 7.0 tpp vs. top tier Illinois defense  

Tulane meanwhile showed plenty of defensive liabilities last week @ South Alabama 

Green Wave allowed 421 evenly dispersed total yards (190 rushing & 231 passing) in narrow 33-31 win as -13.5 point favorites

South Alabama had 4 TD drives of between 75-80 yards 

Those results indicate Week #1 success vs Northwestern may have been more Northwestern offensive incompetence than stellar Tulane defense

To their credit they forced 5 turnovers in that game & 2 more last week

Final Look:

Immediate look at turnover margins through 2 weeks of Tulane +6 and Duke -6 and first thought is that is subject to change

Another look would be these are 2 excellent QB’s Duke Darian Mensah (ex-Tulane) & Tulane Jake Retzlaff (ex-BYU) 

Homecoming here for Mensah who QB’d the Green Wave LY and likely will be pumped up to have a strong performance

Tulane coaching staff knows Mensah but not necessarily him in this Duke offense…game tape of course will show some things

3 of the combined 4 games played by these two thus far have seen final score totals of 62,64 & 64

Could be the offenses are the best units on the field and the current 53.5 total is a shade to low

Can absolutely make the case for Duke here but with this high level brand of QB play and the way each defense was shredded for 400+ yards last week…

Will lean stronger toward this one getting to 54+ points and “over” the total

Play: Duke-Tulane OVER 52.5

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Take Florida (#171)

This is a classic early season ‘buy low’ opportunity on the Florida Gators, primed to bounce back from their sluggish no-show loss to South Florida last weekend.  The Gators beat the Tigers by double digits last year, and Billy Napier's best pointspread role in his current job has been as a road underdog, cashing at a 67% clip.  Expect a battle, not a blowout.  Take Florida

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Liberty is likely to come into this week with an edge after dropping last week’s game to Jacksonville State, 34-24.
Statistically, Liberty outgained Jacksonville State 534-395, but their -2 turnover margin proved costly. While Liberty has shown some vulnerability against the run, Bowling Green has struggled to establish any ground game of their own, managing just 256 rushing yards on 77 attempts all season (3.32 yards per carry), including a matchup against Lafayette. It’s hard to envision Bowling Green getting much going on the ground here. Offensively, Liberty brings balance, averaging 197 rushing yards per game along with 266 through the air. That versatility should create major problems for Bowling Green’s defense. On the flip side, Bowling Green finds themselves in a tough scheduling spot, coming off an in-state rivalry game with Cincinnati and heading to Louisville next. All factors point to a locked-in Liberty squad rebounding from last week’s loss, and that spells trouble for Bowling Green.

Liberty 34, Bowling Green 17

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This is a free play on PITT. 

College Football Gameday would have been in Morgantown if the Mountaineers handled their business against a MAC team last week. West Virginia looked completely outclassed by the Ohio Bobcats, who ran the ball down their throat. Now back home for a rivalry game, and in any normal situation you would love the home dog in this spot. This team is at the beginning of a rebuild under Rich Rod, who brought over half his roster from Jacksonville State. In it's current form this team isn't equipped to compete with legit Power Four teams. I'll lay it with Pitt. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule 

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(173) Texas A&M at (174) Notre Dame

Notre Dame -6.5 (-110)

System: When two ranked teams face off the home favorite of -3 and higher with a total grater than 45 is:

193-129-9 (60%)

The Irish are 9-1-1 ATS at home excluding games as a favorite of -27 and higher.

The Aggies are 3-12 under second year head coach Elko.

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Minnesota finished 2024 hot, winning six of its last eight and going 7-1 ATS down the stretch, capped by a bowl win over Virginia Tech. The 2025 start looks solid at 2-0, but those victories came against Buffalo and Northwestern State — hardly a real test.

Cal, meanwhile, has quietly compiled strong early-season numbers, outgaining opponents by an average of 159 yards per game. Freshman QB JKS has impressed in limited action, and head coach Justin Wilcox thrives in this role: he’s 14-5 ATS as a home underdog, including 10-3 ATS vs undefeated teams.

Minnesota head coach P.J. Fleck has been less reliable as a favorite, sitting at just 6-6 ATS in his last 12 tries as road chalk. Add in a tricky scheduling spot (a late West Coast kickoff for the Gophers), and it tilts the edge in favor of the Bears. To make matters worse, Minnesota’s star RB Taylor is banged up and may not be at full strength.

Bottom line: Minnesota may be the more decorated program, but the matchup, travel spot, and ATS history point to value on Cal.

Pick: Cal +2.5 — Bears extend Wilcox’s home-dog magic.

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We missed the 5 1 /2 that was there for a hot minute on Monday but we do not like jumping right away on games. Now that we looked we will take the 4 1 /2 and make it a smaller play on Wednesday afternoon. Really impressed with Diego Pavia but we have always liked him even when he was with New Mexico St. Diego and the offense put up 490 yards in Blacksburg in what was a beatdown of the Hokies. Yes the same VT team that deserved a better fate against South Carolina the week before. South Carolina lost a ton on the defense and that comes to play in this one with the way the Vanderbilt offense has looked early. Not sure about the high ranking being justified for the Gamecocks. It looks like Vanderbilt's gains from the portal will turn out for the best over their losses. Second road also makes this a smaller play for us. Vanderbilt may very well be the surprise of the SEC again this year. So lets get the job done with the Vanderbilt Commodores as your free play in CFB.

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Take Boston College (#197) 

Stanford football has been a train wreck dating back to the end of the David Shaw era.  The Cardinal haven’t won more than four games in a season since 2018; they entered the 2025 season on a truly dismal 14-34 ATS run since 2021.  When Troy Taylor was fired following an investigation into his conduct in March and Frank Reich took over, just about everyone who could transfer out of town did. The early season results have been predictable – losses to Hawaii and BYU to open up the season.  Playing at The Farm isn’t likely to help – this is no strong homefield – and even off an OT loss, BC is a clear choice to bounce back on Saturday Night.  Chalk worth laying!  Take Boston College.

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The Hawkeyes made us look smart last week. We elected to play the over for the first half in their game vs. Iowa State. We were a winner, as the first half did finish above the total. However, the scoring dried up in the second half and the final score stayed under for the full game total. We don't anticipate that being an issue in this one. 

Kirk Ferentz, we know it goes against everything you preach, but you need to let Mark Gronowski throw the ball 50 times in this contest. All of the offseason talk about Iowa's offensive improvements are now being ignored because the Hawkeyes' passing attack looks completely broken. Gronowski was invited to the NFL combine after his final season at South Dakota State, so the guy knows how to throw a football. But for whatever reason, his decision to postpone the NFL dreams for a year while joining the Hawkeyes does not appear to be a good one. Gronowski was 13-of-24 for 83 passing yards and an interception in last week's loss to Iowa State. Following this game with UMass, Iowa travels to Rutgers on a short week then hosts Indiana. This is Iowa's last chance to generate momentum in the passing game before hitting Big Ten play. Rushing the ball 39 times like they did against the Cyclones is not going to help this team get better. The Hawkeyes will throw and throw often and could go over this low total by themselves. 
Play the Over.

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The Aggies came through in a big way last week, as we had a large play on them and they won outright as underdogs. This is a far more difficult matchup though. New Mexico State has earned a pair of upsets over the last two years, including a 33-30 win in overtime last season as a 12-point ‘dog. The Bulldogs are an improved team this year though and last year's OT loss will provide them with added motivation, as will last week's loss against LSU. New Mexico State has struggled on offense and is going to have trouble scoring against an LA Tech team which pitched a shutout in its only home game. Play on La Tech

Bonus: Three of the last four meetings have stayed under the total, and the lone over required double overtime to clear the number. New Mexico State's first two games have stayed under the total by 31.5 and 17 points respectively. Louisiana Tech's first two games have stayed under the total by 27.5 and 19.5 points respectively. Play on the under. 

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