Ronald Cabang

THE PLAY: Total Over 165.0 (-110)

The Over 165 is a confident play in the Indiana Fever’s matchup against the Connecticut Sun, driven by the Fever’s red-hot offense and the Sun’s league-worst defense. The Fever, on a two-game winning streak with Caitlin Clark back in the lineup, have been scoring at will, posting 99 and 102 points in their last two games. Over their last five games, Indiana ranks second in the WNBA in offensive rating, excelling in the paint and capitalizing on spacing with Clark on the court. Meanwhile, the Sun, who are dead last in defensive rating, allow the second-most points in the paint and the most second-chance points per game, making them vulnerable to the Fever’s offensive onslaught.

Historical trends and recent performance further bolster the case for the Over. Since 2016, road favorites coming off a home game against teams on a two-game losing streak have gone over the total in 32 of 54 games (59.3%). The Sun, despite covering in three straight games, are winless in their last two and depleted without Marina Mabrey, with Tina Charles playing through a shoulder injury. Connecticut’s defense send opponents to the line at the second-highest rate in the league and struggle with defensive boards (worst rate in the league), setting up Indiana to dominate second-chance opportunities and get to the free throw line consistently. With the Sun also going over in four of their last six games, both teams should contribute to pushing this game past the 165-point total.

Good up to 167.

THE PLAY: Washington Mystics -1.5 (-110)

The Washington Mystics are a strong bet to cover the spread against the Los Angeles Sparks, leveraging their elite defense against a struggling home team. I gave this out to all-access and WNBA clients when the Mystics were +1.5 and the line has now moved to -1.5. I still think the play is good to -3. 

The Mystics are riding a three-game winning streak, including a 74-69 upset over Seattle as seven-point road underdogs, and now face the Sparks’ second-worst defense in the WNBA. Over the last five games, Washington boasts the league’s top defensive rating and ranks second in defensive rebounding rate, positioning them to neutralize the Sparks’ reliance on second-chance opportunities. Meanwhile, the Sparks are just 2-8 straight-up and 1-9 ATS at home, consistently failing to capitalize on home court.

The Mystics’ strengths align perfectly against the Sparks’ defensive tendencies, particularly in transition defense and points off turnovers allowed, where the Sparks allow the second-most points over the last five games. With Los Angeles allowing opponents to go over their team total in 15 of 21 games this season, including 9 of 10 at home, the Mystics’ should score more efficiently and the massive defensive edge should help secure a win and cove.