Sean Alvarez

THE PLAY: Total Over 45.5 (-108)

If you would have asked me to handicap this game prior to the start of the season…or even prior to the Iowa State/Iowa game, I would have said that Iowa wins by 10+ in this game. I was high on Mark Gronowski transferring to Iowa after winning two FCS National titles at South Dakota State, but he has yet to show that form for the Hawkeyes. Gronowski has completed just 58.7% of his passes this season with a 4.9 average per attempt and his misses have been bad this year. Iowa has talent around him, and this offense could be dangerous, but without competent play at quarterback, they have been left wanting all year. The running game is what has kept Iowa in games on offense with a solid 1-2 punch from Xavier Williams and Jaziun Patterson, with a 3rd option in Terrell Washington Jr to spell them. This is a deep running attack that is benefited from a top tier offensive line, but they need the passing game and Gronowski to keep the defense on its heels.

Athan Kaliakmanis played well in his first year at Rutgers after transferring from Minnesota last year but struggled with his completion percentage of 54%. While throwing the ball just under 30 times per game this season, Athan has improved his completion percentage to 73% but will be tested by a tough Iowa defense for the first time this season. The Scarlet Knights have a lead back in Antwan Raymond that holds a 5.8 yards per carry average but also have 2 backups who hover around the 5.0 YPC mark as well. The receiving core for Rutgers is not deep but they have 3 experienced receivers who each have at least 200+ yards receiving and at least 2 touchdowns on the year.

Rutgers has a balanced offensive attack that is averaging 46.3 points per game but came against weaker competition, however, Athan Kaliakmanis has thrown the ball well to start the season and has playmakers at receiver that can score from any point on the field. Gronowski needs to improve on his previous performances but had a solid effort against UMass last week and may have been the confidence needed to get back to his South Dakota form. Rutgers can put up a ton of points and with competent play at quarterback, this Iowa offense can be dangerous. I am going to take advantage of the lower total here and play the over while banking on a continued improvement from the Iowa offense and Gronowski.

THE PLAY: Rice -2.5 (-109)

New head coach for the Charlotte 49ers, Tim Albin, likes a power running game and a mobile quarterback to run his offense and has yet to see that within this team so far this season. The Charlotte running game has amounted just 2.8 yards per carry average and yet to have a running back reach the 100-yard mark through the first 3 games. The 49ers have needed quarterback Conner Harrell who on paper has had a good season, but his stats are a bit skewed with his performance against a weak Monmouth team last week while completing just 54% & 58% of his passes in the 2 prior weeks with a touchdown and an interception.

Rice has implemented the triple option as their base offensive attack and have done well through the season. Rice has 3 players with 30 carries or more on the year with 1 of those being quarterback Chase Jenkins. The Owls offense is not going to turn in big plays often, but they will grind your defense down all game with a 4.3 yards per carry average and 13 different players with rushing attempts on the year.

While the Rice defense doesn’t have a ton of talent and highly recruited underclassmen, they do play a disciplined defense while keeping the ball in front of them. That is not going to be as much of an issue this week with a Charlotte offense that has yet to develop into what they want to do with the ball and a quarterback who has been less than impressive outside of last week against Monmouth. Houston did a good job in stopping this Rice triple option but Charlotte is a weaker defense and I am banking on some mental errors when defending the triple option Thursday night.

THE PLAY: Total Over 7.5 (-108) N Pivetta (RHP), D Peterson (LHP) Must Start

David Peterson will make his first start against the Padres this season while holding a 3.77 ERA on the season. David has had a solid season but has struggled since the start of August and has given up 15 earned runs over his last 3 starts while lasting only 12.1 innings. The Padres sit mid-pack against left-handed pitchers this year and has experience against Peterson. The Padres are hitting just .229 over 54 combined plate appearances but has a low 11% strikeout rate. 

Nick Pivetta will also be making his first start on the year against the Mets and is coming off a solid effort against the Reds while throwing 7 scoreless innings, but he has been prone to giving up home runs lately with 6 long balls over his last 8 starts. The Mets have hit well against Nick throughout their career with a .318 batting average over 104 combined plate appearances with 6 home runs and 6 doubles. The Padres bullpen was used a bit last night and should have 3 arms unavailable to back up Pivetta.

Both pitchers have low ERAs on the season, but I think there are reasons to play against them and lean on the over with a low total of 7.5.