Tokyo Brandon

THE PLAY: 1st 5 Innings Washington Nationals -156 Foster Griffin (LHP) Must Start

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Washington is one of the best 1st 5 hitting teams in MLB and Griffin has not allowed more than 1 earned in 6 straight starts. He is even better at home. I like Washington to come out firing after being shut down yesterday.

HOUSTON ASTROS AT WASHINGTON NATIONALS — JULY 8, 2026

Arrighetti’s overall performance is considerably better than Houston’s team pitching numbers. His season has included a 7⅓-inning one-hit start against Texas, but his more recent results have been volatile, including a six-run outing in which he surrendered three home runs.

Griffin has been Washington’s most dependable starter. His latest seven appearances produced a 1.49 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 44 strikeouts and seven walks in 42⅓ innings. He enters with a 2.87 ERA and 100 strikeouts.

Expected Starting-Pitcher Workload

Arrighetti has demonstrated the ability to work beyond six innings, but recent home-run volatility and Washington’s patient, powerful lineup lower the median projection to 5⅔ innings.

Griffin has consistently worked five to seven innings and has completed at least six innings in a substantial portion of his starts. His projected workload is reduced slightly by Houston’s strong right-handed lineup against a left-handed pitcher.

The lineup construction gives Houston seven right-handed hitters against Griffin. Washington counters Arrighetti with four left-handed hitters and two switch hitters.

Batter-versus-Pitcher Analysis

Direct head-to-head history is limited for both starters because Griffin spent recent seasons outside MLB and Washington’s lineup contains several young hitters who have not accumulated meaningful exposure to Arrighetti.

Houston’s matchup advantage against Griffin comes primarily from handedness rather than prior results. Altuve, Paredes, Walker, Smith, Dezenzo, Matthews and Vázquez all bat right-handed. Griffin’s strikeout and control profile remain strong enough that the platoon advantage does not automatically create a high Houston projection, but it raises the Astros’ expected scoring by approximately 0.24 runs.

Yordan Alvarez remains dangerous despite the left-on-left matchup. He entered the series leading MLB or the American League in several major offensive categories, including a batting average around .318, 29 home runs and an OPS above 1.050.

Washington’s matchup against Arrighetti centers on James Wood, Luis García Jr., CJ Abrams and Daylen Lile from the left side. Arrighetti’s recent home-run problems are particularly relevant against Wood and Abrams. Washington scored 12 runs with three home runs in the series opener, including a Wood grand slam and an Abrams three-run homer.

July and Recent Offensive Form

Washington has averaged approximately 5.3 runs per game for the season, compared with approximately 4.5 for Houston. The Nationals have also been one of MLB’s most productive recent offenses.

Washington entered the matchup after scoring 45 runs across its previous five completed games, including totals of 9, 1, 5, 12 and another strong offensive performance in the middle game of the Houston series. The raw average is regressed because of the unusually high-scoring 12-11 result.

Houston has improved materially since late May and entered the road trip after winning six of seven series. The Astros scored 10 against Tampa Bay and 11 in the series opener at Washington.

Tokyo's Clutch Index - runner on third with less than 2 outs

Comparative Rankings

Starting-pitcher rankings combine ERA and WHIP among pitchers with at least 14 innings and curve the results to a 1–30 scale.

Bullpen rankings combine ERA and WHIP over the most recent ten-day period. Lineup rankings combine runs scored and wOBA over the latest ten games.

Washington has the clear current lineup advantage and the stronger starter. Houston has the slightly better bullpen profile, particularly at the back end with Hader.

Washington’s left-handed core and recent power production create scoring upside against Arrighetti.

THE PLAY: Kia Tigers -1 (-180)

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KIA got throttled yesterday but Lotte is one of the worst teams in the league and have a pretty bad lineup. KIA has Naile on the mound who has dominated Lotte with only 3ER in 5 starts the last 2 years.

I do not think Naile gives up much and I like the Kia bullpen much better. NA is a decent pitcher but has given up 2-3 earned vs Kia every start going back to last year.