Tokyo Brandon

THE PLAY: Mercer -4.5 (-110)

ALL-BASEBALL ALL-ACCESS YEAR PASS | EVERY LEAGUE! $699 DISCOUNT

This is an early bird special offered only for a limited time

_{50% OFF Every Baseball League from WagerTalk's Top Capper!}

🔴click here! ➡ https://www.wagertalk.com/profile/tokyo-brandon#specials

Tokyo Brandon has been dominating since 2020. Don’t miss your shot to cash in with Tokyo Brandon’s baseball in 2026 at 50% for the entire year, every league!

Why trust Tokyo Brandon? Because the record speaks for itself:

#1 MLB profit 2024 (+145 units)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2024 (+180u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2022 (+125u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2021 (+225u)
#4 All-Sports Profit 2025 (+49u)

Tokyo Brandon has finished #1 overall in profit at WagerTalk among 33 cappers over the last 5 years and turned a profit in 5 of the last 6 seasons – no guessing here, just a consistent winning strategy and results. Your bankroll will thank you later, and your wallet will too with 50% off! (this includes MLB, KBO, Japanese, World Baseball Classic, Mexican baseball and EVERY other baseball bet all year)

🔴click here! ➡ https://www.wagertalk.com/profile/tokyo-brandon#specials

Follow
X @Tokyo Brandon
TikTok @tokyobrandonofficial
Instagram @tokyobrandon

_________

Team comparison (since conference play)

Score prediction

My projected score

Mercer 80 – Chattanooga 70

• This is basically a “Mercer pace vs Chattanooga recent scoring slump” tug-of-war:

  • Mercer has shown real “scoreboard vandalism” potential lately.

Spread (Mercer -4.5)

• My projection implies Mercer by ~10.

• Chattanooga’s recent results include several single-digit losses… and a couple ugly ones.
  

Player matchup notes

Mercer’s whole deal is guard-driven creation — Baraka Okojie is the engine, and when he’s turning possessions into paint touches + kickouts, Mercer can erupt (their recent 100+ outputs weren’t accidents). Chattanooga’s best path is to make Okojie work for everything, keep him off the free-throw line, and prevent the “1 guard collapses you → 3s rain” script from starting.

On the other side, Chattanooga’s recent scoring (and overall Jan–Feb totals) scream “we’re not winning track meets right now.” Jordan Frison is the guy most likely to keep them functional offensively, but if Mercer can turn this into a possession-count game (push after misses, early-clock attempts), Chattanooga gets dragged into the ocean where Mercer swims.

Competition note: both teams’ “since Jan 1” sample is overwhelmingly SoCon play, so the numbers are at least coming from comparable opponent quality — it’s not inflated by a bunch of early-season cupcake totals.

Why I am betting Mercer

Using each team’s recent game logs (all games listed below are in 2026), here’s what the “shape” looks like:

Key split that matters for Mercer -4.5: Mercer’s “Jan 1 onward” away average margin is only about +2 to +3 (they’ve been great overall, but less blowout-y on the road).
Meanwhile Chattanooga’s “Jan 1 onward” home margin is ugly (they’ve been getting outscored at home in this stretch).

Matchup quality check (tempo-free strength)

Mercer is clearly stronger overall (Mercer around +2 AdjEM vs Chattanooga around -11 in that table slice), which supports Mercer being favored even on the road.

Player / role matchups

Mercer’s engines

• Baraka Okojie: 18.8 PPG, 5.8 APG (shot-creator + primary table-setter).

• Armani Mighty: 13.6 PPG, 10.6 RPG (paint scoring + glass).

• Zaire Williams: 12.3 PPG (secondary scorer/spacer).

Chattanooga’s engines

• Jordan Frison: 14.7 PPG, 3.9 APG (usage hub).

• Tate Darner: 9.3 PPG and team-high ~4.0 RPG (their rebounding is very “by committee”).

Injuries

• Chattanooga has Landon Vitters out and Sean Cusano out (both listed as out for remainder of season on Covers).

1. Recent form gap is real. Mercer has been consistently winning in this Jan–Feb segment; Chattanooga has been consistently losing (and getting popped at home).

2. Quality gap backs it up. Tempo-free ratings also like Mercer meaningfully more.

3. Mercer’s offensive “ceiling” travels. Even in their road games in this stretch, they’ve shown they can score plenty (e.g., 102 at UNCG).

THE PLAY: Under +189.5 (-115)

ALL-BASEBALL ALL-ACCESS YEAR PASS | EVERY LEAGUE! $699 DISCOUNT

This is an early bird special offered only for a limited time

_{50% OFF Every Baseball League from WagerTalk's Top Capper!}

🔴click here! ➡ https://www.wagertalk.com/profile/tokyo-brandon#specials

Tokyo Brandon has been dominating since 2020. Don’t miss your shot to cash in with Tokyo Brandon’s baseball in 2026 at 50% for the entire year, every league!

Why trust Tokyo Brandon? Because the record speaks for itself:

#1 MLB profit 2024 (+145 units)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2024 (+180u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2022 (+125u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2021 (+225u)
#4 All-Sports Profit 2025 (+49u)

Tokyo Brandon has finished #1 overall in profit at WagerTalk among 33 cappers over the last 5 years and turned a profit in 5 of the last 6 seasons – no guessing here, just a consistent winning strategy and results. Your bankroll will thank you later, and your wallet will too with 50% off! (this includes MLB, KBO, Japanese, World Baseball Classic, Mexican baseball and EVERY other baseball bet all year)

🔴click here! ➡ https://www.wagertalk.com/profile/tokyo-brandon#specials

Follow
X @Tokyo Brandon
TikTok @tokyobrandonofficial
Instagram @tokyobrandon

_________

Copenhagen Basketball @ Team FOG Naestved

Data pulse: Naestved’s season profile is high scoring, but the matchup math (and the historical series totals trend on this pairing) pulls the expected total down vs 189.5.

Projection: Naestved 94–84 (Total 178)

Take under 185.5 or higher

Last-10 patterns

• Copenhagen last 10: 83.0 scored / 80.1 allowed → 163.1 total.

• Copenhagen last 10 (away): 89.67 scored / 78.83 allowed → 168.5 total.

• Næstved last 10: 103.2 scored / 87.8 allowed → 191.0 total.

• Næstved last 10 (home): 100.0 scored / 86.2 allowed → 186.2 total (basically sitting right under your line).

So the “form math” says:

• Copenhagen drags games into the 160s–high 160s,

• Næstved at home can live around mid/high 180s,

• and the line is asking for the top end of that range.

Home/away context (season)

• Copenhagen season (away): 83.7 scored / 86.9 allowed → 170.6 total.

• Næstved season (home): 105.11 scored / 86.11 allowed → 191.22 total.

Season numbers alone would make you nervous about an under… until you see the matchup history.

Head-to-head / matchup-specific trends (the real hammer)

• Under 186.5 hit in 12 of last 13 Næstved home games vs Copenhagen.

• Under 93.5 1H hit in 7 of last 8 Næstved home vs Copenhagen, and Copenhagen’s own 1H under trends are strong (9/10 games, 8/9 away).

• Copenhagen also shows “high total unders” broadly: Under 184.5 in 13 of last 15 games.

• H2H summary has the combined scoring in this matchup sitting around ~182-ish (PPG 97.6 vs 84.1).
  

Why I am betting the under:

1) Matchup history screams “this series stays under this number”

• Under 186.5 has hit in 12 of the last 13 Næstved home games vs Copenhagen. That’s an absurdly consistent matchup-specific trend at basically the same total range.

2) Copenhagen’s last-10 totals live far below 186

• Copenhagen last 10: 83.0 scored / 80.1 allowed → average game total ~163.1. (scores24.live)
  Even if you think Næstved drags them up, you need a big “pace + efficiency” jump to reach 187+.

3) Copenhagen is structurally an “under team” at high totals

• Trend: Under 184.5 in 13 of their last 15 games. That tells you books often hang totals too high relative to how Copenhagen games actually play.

4) First-half under profile supports a full-game under

This matters because if the game starts slow, you’re not relying on a perfect 4Q.

• In this matchup at Næstved, 1H Under 93.5 hit in 7 of last 8.

• Copenhagen also has strong 1H under streaks (9/10 overall; 8/9 away).

5) The number is priced near the top end of reasonable outcomes

• Næstved last 10 at home averages about 186.2 total (100.0 for / 86.2 against). That’s basically right on your line, meaning you’re betting they don’t reach their ceiling.
  When a total sits at the high end of a team’s typical band, the under benefits from:

• normal shooting regression,

• fewer transition points,

• or just one cold stretch.

6) You don’t need Næstved to “fail” — you mainly need Copenhagen to be Copenhagen

The under is most alive when Copenhagen:

• limits possessions,

• avoids turnover-fueled runouts,

• and keeps their scoring in the 80s (which is their normal world).
  If Copenhagen lands ~82–88, Næstved has to score ~99–105 to beat you — doable, but not the default.