Tokyo Brandon

Tokyo Brandon

Hot Streaks

🥇 #1 WagerTalk ALL-SPORTS profit 2021 (+256 units)

🥇 #1 WagerTalk ALL-SPORTS profit 2024 (+180 units)

🥇 #1 WagerTalk MLB profit 2024 (+145 units)

🥇 #1 WagerTalk ALL-SPORTS profit 2022 (+125 units)

🥇 #1 WagerTalk 5% MAX bet profit L365d (+89 units)

💵 #4 WagerTalk ALL-SPORTS profit 2025 (+48 units)

Last updated Jun 20, 8:03 AM EDT

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Free Picks

Sport
Game Selection
Game Time
MLB
(953) San Francisco Giants at (954) Miami Marlins: Moneyline
1:40pm EDT - Jun 21/2026

THE PLAY: San Francisco Giants -140 Logan Webb (RHP) Must Start

30% OFF 3 days all-access UP! 
🔴 click ➡ wt.buzz/tb

📺⚡Sunday Morning Live MLB Betting Show
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===============

This is based almost solely on starting pitching but the SF hitters have been crushing and Gusto is an absolute terrible pitcher.

SFG at MIA — June 21, 2026

Projected score: SFG 4.6, MIA 3.6

San Francisco receives a 60.1% win probability and fair moneyline of -151. The posted -142 price represents a small but positive edge. The projected total is 8.2, but the distribution still gives under 8 a 52.5% conditional win probability because exactly eight runs lands approximately 10.6% of the time.

Applicable performance since May 1, 2025

Pitcher

IP

H

ER

BB

K

ERA

WHIP

Logan Webb

241

239

90

54

239

3.36

1.22

Ryan Gusto

88⅓

107

66

35

78

6.72

1.61

Webb’s underlying profile across the period is almost exactly one strikeout per inning with a 5.7% walk rate. Gusto has allowed 10.9 hits and 3.6 walks per nine innings.

The ERA differential alone is worth approximately 0.75 projected runs over the expected starter workloads. Webb’s much longer expected outing produces an additional advantage by limiting exposure to San Francisco’s struggling relief group.

Webb’s three June 2026 starts have produced 23 innings, 13 hits, one earned run, one walk and 18 strikeouts. Webb worked at least seven innings in all three starts and completed eight innings in the latest two. The latest outing was eight innings with no earned runs, seven hits, no walks and seven strikeouts.

Gusto’s three June 2026 starts have produced 10⅔ innings, 14 hits, eight earned runs, five walks and six strikeouts. Gusto allowed five runs, eight hits, three walks and two home runs in 4⅔ innings during the latest start.

The June adjustment subtracts 0.35 runs from Miami’s expected production and adds 0.25 runs to San Francisco’s expected production.

San Francisco’s recent offense has been substantially better than the season record suggests. Miami owns the higher scoring rate, while San Francisco holds a slight recent OPS and slugging advantage.

Miami has won the first two games of the series, 4-3 and 6-3, and enters Sunday with an MLB-best 13-4 June record. Miami used eight pitchers Friday, while Pete Fairbanks recorded saves on both Friday and Saturday.

Casey Schmitt homered and doubled twice Saturday. Jung Hoo Lee doubled twice and scored twice. Those performances support the positive San Francisco recent-contact adjustment without receiving excessive single-game weight.

San Francisco’s bullpen entered the series with a 6.30 June ERA. Friday’s late lead was lost after Webb’s rotation partner completed six innings, and Saturday’s bullpen was required to cover six innings after Trevor McDonald lasted only three.

Miami possesses the better recent bullpen form but faces a much larger expected workload. Gusto projects for only four innings, leaving approximately 15 outs for the bullpen.

Miami used eight pitchers Friday. Fairbanks pitched Friday and Saturday, making a third consecutive appearance unlikely. Several middle relievers also worked during Friday’s bullpen game. The workload adjustment adds 0.10 runs to San Francisco’s projection and prevents Miami’s bullpen advantage from becoming larger.

Webb’s expected 6⅔ innings are especially valuable because only seven relief outs are projected for San Francisco.

Projected team boxscore

Period

SFG

MIA

Total

First five innings

2.8

1.5

4.3

Full game

4.6

3.6

8.2

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Consultant Bio

Don't look at streaks, look at seasons... #1 all sports profit at Wager Talk 3 of the last 5 years.
 

You won't see Brandon talking about how he did in 7 or 3 days, he talks about how he does in seasons. #1 at Wager Talk 3 of the last 5 years in profit. Brandon scouted Japanese baseball for the Pacific Rim Scouting Department of a Major League Baseball team for ten years and is based in Tokyo, Japan. Brandon is Wager Talk's #1 all-sports profit capper in 2021 (+256 units), 2022 (+127 units) and 2024 (+180 units). He now uses his mathematical probabilities and scouting analyses to handicap sports including Japanese baseball, Korean baseball, Asian basketball and MLB. 

 

Brandon has lived in Japan since 1992 and is originally from Phoenix, Arizona. Brandon graduated from The University of Arizona with a BA degree in Japanese Studies in 1992.

** Actual client recommendations:  ( Click here for twitter feed @Tokyo_Brandon )

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