Bryan Power

THE PLAY: Toronto Blue Jays -125 Dylan Cease (RHP) Must Start

Last September, Cleveland made an improbable run to the playoffs by going 20-7 over their final 27 regular season games. I'll tell you right now that I'm not as high on my hometown team's chances this year, even though they've won 9 of their last 11 games including a 6-1 victory over Toronto in the series opener last night. An offense that's scored the third fewest runs in all of MLB this season is too difficult to trust.

Tonight, that 28th ranked offense faces Dylan Cease. Cease is currently 2nd in AL Cy Young odds (trailing only New York's Cam Schlittler) and is tied for the league lead with 217 strikeouts. On the road this season, Cease is 7-1 with a 1.67 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. He's allowed three runs or fewer in 9 of his past 10 starts overall. So it seems pretty reasonable to expect Cease to shutdown this Guardians lineup.

Now the Blue Jays are one of two teams to have scored fewer runs than the Guardians this season. Last night, they were held to just three total bases! That loss leaves them 2.5 games back of Cleveland for the final Wild Card spot. So it's getting to be desperation time for last year's American League Champs. Being able to bet them at this price, with their best starter on the mound, seems like the right play to me.

THE PLAY: Eastern Michigan -3.5 (-109)

Both of these teams played in Week 0. Both covered the spread, although only Eastern Michigan won straight up (28-17). Not like anyone expected San Jose State to win as they were up against USC. But it ended up being closer than the oddsmakers thought with the Spartans easily covering as 37.5-point underdogs in a 42-26 loss. It's a much shorter spread for Week 1.

Now EMU is typically a team you want to back as an underdog as 79 of their previous 110 games have either been a SU win or a one-possession loss! But in the season opener against Sacramento State, the Eagles proved they can get the job done as chalk by covering the 9.5-point spread. This is an experienced team and I like the coach (Chris Creighton). Do not be surprised if EMU is a contender for the MAC Title Game this year.

Conversely, I am not that high on San Jose State, despite the "decent" showing against USC. Keep in mind the Spartans trailed 28-0 at halftime and 35-3 after three quarters. There were three late TD drives when the game was out of reach to make things appear more competitive than they actually were. Also, early in the 1H, USC had 1st & goal at the SJSU 7-yard line and ended up turning over on downs. It's a long trip to Ypsilanti for Ken Niumatalolo's crew. Don't like the spot for them, playing the second of B2B road games on a short week. EMU moves to 2-0 SU and covers the short number.