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THE PLAY: Over 73.5

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These long-term numbers say it all:

2024: #1 MLB profit 2024 (+145 units)
2024: #1 All-Sports Profit (+180 units)
2022: #1 All-Sports Profit (+125 units)
2021: #1 All-Sports Profit (+225 units)
2025: #4 All-Sports Profit (+49 units)

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The primary pros for betting the Over 73.5 wins on the Miami Marlins for the 2026 season center on their clear upward trajectory and strategic offseason enhancements. Coming off a solid 79-83 finish in 2025—their best record in recent years and a significant improvement that included a strong second half and flirtation with relevance—the team demonstrated growing competitiveness, particularly with young talent stepping up in areas like the infield, outfield, and pitching depth. I have confidence in the rotation's stability and competence as most projected starters (even depth options) are expected to post ERAs better than 4.50, supporting a reliable pitching foundation despite some trades.

Offseason moves further bolster the case: the Marlins added impactful pieces like closer Pete Fairbanks (a one-year, $13M signing for bullpen stability), outfielder Christopher Morel (power and versatility), promising young outfielders Owen Caissie (via trade from Cubs) and Esteury Ruiz (from Dodgers), and a haul of prospects/infielders/outfielders from deals involving Ryan Weathers (to Yankees) and Edward Cabrera (to Cubs). These acquisitions address offensive gaps (especially power and depth up the middle) while the losses were primarily of controllable pitchers traded for youth and future upside, aligning with a build-without-blocking-talent approach.

Projections and analyses suggest the Marlins could push toward or above .500 (around 78-82 wins), well clear of 73.5, especially if key youngsters like Kyle Stowers, Jakob Marsee, Otto Lopez, and others continue progressing or break out further. The line appears undervalued given their 2025 baseline and roster upgrades, making the over a value play with momentum on their side in a division where not every team is peaking.

THE PLAY: Houston -16.5 (-110)

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Score prediction:
Houston 79, Arizona State 61

Breakdown of the spread:

Houston is favored by 16.5 points. The Cougars have been dominant in January, winning by an average margin of 15.5 points, with strong defensive performances. Arizona State has struggled, losing three of four January games by an average of 10.7 points, and their high points allowed (93 PPG) plays into Houston's strengths. At home in Fertitta Center, Houston should pull away in the second half for a comfortable win, covering the -16.5 spread.

Trends:

• Houston is on a 10-game winning streak, including 4-0 in January with wins by margins of 7, 4, 22, and 29 points. They start strong (averaging 33 points in first halves in January home games) but have shown tendencies to rally if behind early, as seen in close first halves against Texas Tech (tied at halftime) before pulling away. Home patterns show solid defense, allowing under 60 points in recent games, and they cover the spread in 50% of home games this season. Game totals have gone under in all four January games, aligning with the 146.5 O/U today. Halftime totals average around 66 combined points in their January games.

• Arizona State is 1-4 in their last 5 games, with a 4-game losing streak snapped by a narrow win over Kansas State before losing again. They have cold spots in away games, covering the spread in only 1 of their last 4 road contests, and tend to fade in the second half (allowing 51+ points in second halves of January losses). Home/away patterns: 1-3 in January (0-2 away), with losing margins of 6, 28, and 7 points in losses. Game totals have gone over in their last 6 games, but today's O/U of 146.5 may buck that trend against Houston's defense. Halftime losing margins average 12 points in away losses; they start cold on the road but attempt late rallies when behind. Compared to odds: Arizona State's over trend contrasts Houston's under streak, suggesting the under is likely; their poor away defense supports Houston covering -16.5.

Player matchup breakdowns:

• Guards: Maurice Odum (ASU, 16.8 PPG, 6.5 APG) vs. Kingston Flemings (Houston, 15.4 PPG, 5.2 APG). Odum is Arizona State's playmaker, capable of high-scoring games (23 points vs. Arizona), but he'll face pressure from Flemings, who excels in transition and ball distribution. Advantage: Flemings, as Houston's defensive scheme limits opposing guards to low efficiency.

• Wings/Forwards: Emanuel Sharp (Houston, 15.9 PPG) vs. Santiago Trouet (ASU, 5.8 RPG). Sharp's scoring versatility from outside could exploit Trouet's rebounding focus, but Trouet may struggle offensively against Houston's athletic forwards. Advantage: Sharp, given his recent 17-point outings and Houston's perimeter defense.

• Bigs: Massamba Diop (ASU, 14.7 PPG, 5.6 RPG) vs. Chris Cenac Jr. (Houston, 7.6 RPG). Diop brings scoring inside (16 points vs. Arizona), but Cenac's rebounding dominance and Houston's paint protection (low opponent FG% inside) will challenge him. Advantage: Cenac, as Houston bigs have held opponents under 60 points recently.

• Bench/Depth: Arizona State's injuries (Adams, Holiman out) limit rotation to 7-8 players, while Houston's depth (five in double figures vs. Baylor) allows fresh legs. Advantage: Houston, especially in the second half where they rally or extend leads.

Arizona State kept the game close against rival Arizona on the road, do you still think Houston beats them by 17?

I was waiting for that question. Yes, I still think Houston covers -16.5 and wins by around 17 or more. Arizona State showed real fight leading 39-38 at halftime, stayed competitive deep into the second half (cut it to 4 points late with runs like 6-0 and a 3-pointer to get within striking distance), and only lost 89-82 after Arizona pulled away with better second-half execution, rebounding (39-28 edge), and free throws. Maurice Odum had 23 points (including a late 3-point play), Massamba Diop scored 16 efficiently inside, and they forced a physical, gritty game with low turnovers early (just 1 in the first half) and solid perimeter shooting to counter Arizona's paint dominance. That said, this doesn't drastically change my view on the Houston matchup for a few key reasons:

• Houston's defense is elite and disruptive in a different way — ASU allowed 89 points to Arizona (a high-powered offense), but Houston has been holding teams to around 57 PPG in January games. Their pressure, length, and paint protection (led by guys like Chris Cenac Jr. and Joseph Tugler) should limit ASU's inside scoring from Diop and force more contested perimeter shots. ASU's road defense has still been vulnerable overall this season.

• Pace and style mismatch — The ASU-Arizona game was a rivalry slugfest with physicality and some foul trouble issues for ASU (Diop picked up his 4th foul midway through the second half). Houston plays slower, more controlled, and suffocating — they dictate tempo at home in Fertitta Center (9-0 home record, strong in recent games). ASU's offense (which relies on transition and perimeter play) could get bogged down, leading to fewer possessions and a lower-scoring output than against Arizona.

• Recent form contrast — Houston remains on a long win streak (16-1 overall per latest lines), dominant at home, and has covered in blowout fashion against lesser offenses. ASU is 10-7 (1-3 in Big 12 per reports), and while the Arizona game was their best effort recently, it was still a loss on the road against a top team — their road struggles persist (e.g., larger margins in other January losses).

• Spread context — The line is still Houston -16.5 (with O/U around 146.5). ASU kept it "close" against Arizona (7-point final margin), but that was in a high-total game (171 combined points). Against Houston's defense, expect a lower total and more separation as the Cougars pull away in the second half (their pattern: strong finishes, rallying if needed, but often building leads at home).