Pavlos Laguretos

THE PLAY: REGULATION Over 8 Cards Asian Line (-114)

Newells Old Boys vs Rosario Central
Argentina, Sunday, 3pm ET

Play: Over 8 Cards Asian Line
Odds at Time of Release: -114 B365
Line Parameter: Line good to -125, otherwise take 1% on the Over 8.5 Cards

Huge and hateful derby in the city of Rosario between hosts Newells Old Boys and visitors Rosario Central. This is one of those match-ups that have been circled in my calendar, as this quite often gets out of hand and cards are plenty.

This time around, Newells are in terrible shape, started the season with zero wins in 7 matches (W0 D2 L5), with zero clean sheets and 2+ conceded goals in 5 of 7. However, this match holds great significance for both teams, and Newells will have to go above and beyond to win. Besides being really bad this season, they have also lose each of L/5 against Rosario.

Then there's the fans, who rushed into the club's training pitch, burned it, caused damage to players' cars, and left a clear message in the stands: "Ganen o balas para todos", which roughly translates to: "Win, or there's going to be bullets for everyone". They lost their match after that message, the coaching duo was dismissed, and now the new coach (Kudelka) took the job after leaving Huracan. And last season, Huracan were the team with the most cards against in the league, and the most red cards against.

Rosario Central are in much better shape right now, lost just 1 of 7 matches in the new season (W4 D2 L1), with 3 clean sheets and generally much better than Newells. But such derbies always close whatever gap exists between the teams.

Skipping sides, going straight to card totals, with the line set at 8, or 8.5 depending where you look. I'm going with the Over 8 Cards Asian Line (-114 B365).

Cards in L/5 H2H: 11/5/8/10/9, so at least 8 cards in 4 of 5, and at least 9 cards in 3 of 5

Referee is Yael Falcon Perez, who dished out 10 cards the last time he officiated this matchup, and is one of the best referees for cards in Argentina.

With Newells absolutely dying for their first win of the season, and with Rosario looking to extend Newells' misery, this is a very good basis for a heated match with a lot of cards. And the referee helps. There is a reason the line is at 8, but we ride with the Over nonetheless. This match is an unstable concoction of circumstances that led us to this point, and could easily result in a silly amount of cards.

Take 3% on the Over 8 Cards Asian Line (-114 B365), line good to -125, otherwise take 1% on the Over 8.5 Cards (+110)

THE PLAY: REGULATION Each Team 2+ Cards (-138)

Arsenal vs Chelsea
EPL, Sunday, 11:30am ET

Play: Each Team 2+ Cards
Odds at Time of Release: -138
Line Parameter: Line good to -150

Cards in H2H L/3 seasons: 3/8/9/6/6/4/6, 5+ cards in 5 of 7, 6+ cards in 4 of 7

2+ Cards for each team: N/Y/Y/Y/Y/Y/Y, both teams got carded 2+ times in 6 of L/7

Weird referee for cards, he doesn't have huge card totals but he's shown 4-5 cards in the majority of his matches, and he is usually very "fair" with cards, usually splitting them between the teams.

Take 3% on Each Team 2+ Cards (-138 B365), line good to -150