Pavlos Laguretos

THE PLAY: REGULATION Total Under 3.25 (-118)

Suriname vs Mexico
Gold Cup, Wednesday, 10pm ET

Play: Under 3.25 Goals
Odds at Time of Release: -118
Line Parameter: Line good to -125, otherwise take the Under 3 

Suriname looked really good in the opener against Costa Rica, despite falling two goals behind. They showed great resolve and not only did they pull back even, but also took the lead only to eventually lose with a penalty kick at the 13th minute of stoppage time. 

Suriname basically need some kind of result here in the form of a win or a Draw in order to have a fighting chance, but that might not be so easy. The books keep underestimating them, they are now +1100 underdogs here, the Draw at +489 and Mexico are -450 favourites, with the Asian Spread set at 1.75 and the Asian Total set at 3.25 goals. 

Mexico looked careless at the back in Game 1, allowing the Dominican Republic to score twice and turn a theoretically easy match into a derby, getting more anxious than they would’ve wanted. Now going for another win before facing their toughest task yet against Costa Rica in game 3, Mexico will surely try to protect their backline a little bit more. 

This is a strange match to predict, based on what we saw in Game 1, this could be an Over, as Mexico conceded two goals to the Dominican Republic and Suriname scored three against Costa Rica. Then there's the logic that Mexico will try to improve their goal difference in order to finish first in their group and avoid USA in the quarter-finals. 

But on the other hand, we might see a more defensive approach from Mexico, maybe they win 2-0 or 3-0 and we still cash this ticket. 

Looks like an Under to me, the Under 3.25 Goals is at -120 and that’s a split line between the Under 3 and the Under 3.5 Goals. Just a heads up, this is NOT making my card on Wednesday, this is just a lean. This can go anywhere, please proceed with caution. 

Leaning Under 3.25 Goals (-118) here. 

THE PLAY: REGULATION Total Over 2.75 (-125)

Costa Rica vs Dominican Republic
Gold Cup, Wednesday, 7pm ET

Play: Over 2.75 Goals
Odds at Time of Release: -125
Line Parameter: Line good to -135, otherwise take the Over 3 Goals

Costa Rica are -196 favourites here, the Draw at +322 and the Dominican Republic are +590 underdogs, with the Asian Spread set at 1.25 and the Asian Total Set at 2.75 Goals

Costa Rica almost suffered an upset against Suriname in Match Day 1 despite taking an early two goal with Martinez and Ugalde (scored a Penalty), as Suriname managed to overturn that lead and were leading 3-2 at the 64th minute, only for Costa Rica to pull even at the 76th and eventually score a last minute winner with another penalty kick by Ugalde deep at the 13th minute of stoppage time. Needless to say, they allowed 9 shots with 6 on target that accounted for 2.62 xG, while they themselves created 19 shots with 9 on target and 2.9 xG. 

The Dominican Republic almost pulled an upset themselves in the opener against Mexico, where they lost by 3-2 and did generate 12 shots with 5 on target and 0.78 xG to Mexico’s 15 shots with 9 on target and 1.28 xG. 

Judging by what we saw in Match Day 1, both teams can create dangerous situations but are also leaky at the back, so the Over 2.75 Goals makes perfect sense here, that’s a split line between the Over 2.5 Goals and the Over 3 Goals. 

To honest, Costa Rica are not destroyed with a Draw here, although they do have to face Mexico in Match Day 3. It’s the Dominican Republic who are now with their backs against the wall and they must open up in search of a win. 

This is the most important reason why I am going with the Over: Costa Rica are currently sitting at the top of Group A and this group gets matched with Group D in the quarter-finals, a group that USA are most likely going to top, so Costa Rica will surely look to improve their goal difference in order to finish at the top of Group A and avoid playing against USA in the quarter-finals. I think they can score 3 on their own, although the Dominican Republic showed that they can be very dangerous and might also get in the score-sheet here. 

Take 3% on the Over 2.75 Goals (-125), line good to -135, otherwise take the Over 3 Goals