Bryan Power

THE PLAY: Atlanta Braves -129 M Fried (LHP), J Paxton (LHP) Must Start

3% Atlanta (4:10 ET): Well, the Braves’ Under streak finally ended Saturday (at 10 straight games). The bad news for Braves’ fans is that the streak ended because their team gave up 11 runs to the Dodgers. Unlike Friday’s series opener (which LA won 4-3 in 11 innings), Saturday’s result was never really in doubt as Dodger Blue jumped out to an early 7-1 lead and never looked back, thanks to the first 3 HR game of Max Muncy’s career, not to mention three hits from Shohei Ohtani. This is just the second time in 2024 that Atlanta has dropped B2B games. Prior to yesterday’s result, they’d been 8-1 off a loss. 

The last time the Braves were off B2B losses, I went on the Morning Wager (available M-F on WagerTalk TV) and said to back them in the F5 (vs. Seattle). That turned out to be the correct call and the Braves ended up winning that game 5-2. When analyzing Sunday’s series finale, the first thing that should “jump out to you” is that the Braves are favored here after being a “too good to be true” underdog each of the L2 days. This is for good reason. Not just because it’s a rare time the team is off B2B losses, but also Max Fried will be on the mound. Last time out, Fried tossed six no-hit innings. Now the Braves did find a way to lose that game (2-1 to Seattle) as they too were no-hit into the seventh and Seattle walked it off w/ a 2-run HR in the bottom of the ninth. 

Expect a better result for Fried and the Braves this time. Fried has not allowed a run in B2B starts as he tossed a CG shutout (vs. Miami) back on 4/23. He has an xERA of 2.93 this season and all the underlying numbers look great. Meanwhile, the same cannot be said for Dodgers’ starter James Paxton, who has a ton of negative regression in the profile, namely a 6.16 xERA. Paxton has more walks (22) than strikeouts (15), so it is downright remarkable that the team is 4-1 in his 5 starts. Off B2B losses, with this starting pitching advantage, it’s a great spot to back the Braves. 3% Atlanta (Play to -145)